Cornerstone Report: Week One
Welcome to the first installment of the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the current NFL rookie class and projected 2020 rookie class.
Each week will examine one to two players from each group, discussing their current value and progress this season.
It will use tools including the DLF Trade Analyzer, Trade Finder, average draft position and mock draft data to compare the combined values of players in both classes.
I welcome thoughts and suggestions in the comments section and on twitter (@threedownhack).
NCAA Week One/NFL Preseason Week Four
Cam Akers, RB Florida State
No other top 2020 prospect may have taken such a hit this off-season as Florida State running back Cam Akers. I maintain it is a reflection of the team’s poor 2018 season, and specifically the offensive line, more than of Akers’ talent or projection to the NFL.
It is hard to grasp how historically awful FSU’s offensive line was in 2018. This provides context:
Rush yards BEFORE first contact on 1st & 2nd down designed runs vs FBS:
1. GT – 1,934
2. AFA – 1,899
3. Clemson – 1,579
4. Wisconsin – 1,555
FBS avg – 798
128. Akron – 318
129. SJSU – 186
130. Florida State – 2Two.
TWO!!!
That is… insane.
I only ran for 2 less YBC last year.— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) August 14, 2019
Hale notes that FSU had 253 designed runs versus FBS teams on first and second downs. Of their 850 yards, 848 came after contact – the offensive line literally produced only two yards before contact for its runners all season.
With the arrival of up-tempo mastermind Kendal Briles and his longtime offensive line coach Randy Clements, there is an expectation of improvement.
In his 15 seasons as an FBS assistant, the teams on which #FSU OL coach Randy Clements has served as line coach have combined to average 36.5 points per game, 495.9 yards per game and 208.7 rushing yards per game. He expects more of the same at FSU:https://t.co/RoMbLXbC6K pic.twitter.com/Smqsfz9mGY
— Tashan Reed (@tashanreed) August 27, 2019
I point to Akers’ body of work as a top-three overall recruit in his class and as FSU’s all-time freshman rushing record holder. His talent still pops on tape. He remains in my top tier of 2020 backs and in my second tier of cornerstone rankings.
I recently hosted a DLF devy mock draft combining the 2020 and 2021 classes. Akers fell out of round one. See where he was selected here in round two. The community has discounted his value.
If FSU’s line can go from historically bad to just bad, Akers’ dynasty stock should rise. The Seminoles play Boise State in a week one neutral site showdown.
Khalan Laborn, RB Florida State
As an aside, do not forget about Noles running back Khalan Laborn. Laborn returns to action as FSU’s RB2 after injuring himself shortly after this electric run in the 2018 season opener.
Khalan Laborn is straight NASTY pic.twitter.com/2xHOV9Qus6
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 4, 2018
Laborn was a top 40 overall talent in the 2017 recruiting class but injuries have limited him to career production captured just in the clip above. Eligible for the 2020 NFL Draft, Laborn may opt to build his resume by staying in school after Akers departs. He is essentially free in devy leagues.
We briefly stay in the state of Florida to discuss the sloppy week zero appetizer game of Florida versus Miami (FL). Some quick-hit takeaways:
Lamical Perine, RB Florida is a deeper devy prospect than teammate (and 2021 draft eligible) Dameon Pierce, but he continues to put up solid dominator ratings and receiving numbers. That said, it is safe to keep him low on your list of 2020 running backs given the talent of the class.
Deejay Dallas, RB Miami (FL) totaled 132 scrimmage yards. He benefited from some poor Gator tackling but did exhibit good contact balance, strength and versatility.
DEEJAY DALLAS!@CanesFootball takes the lead in Orlando 🙌 pic.twitter.com/ntKYpnnK6R
— ESPN (@espn) August 25, 2019
Dallas has held off talented youngster Lorenzo Lingard as lead back for the Canes yet remains off the radar of many devy players. However, given the completeness of his game, he is worth a pickup at his low price. While Lingard is being selected around 100th overall in devy drafts, Dallas can be had nearly 100 picks later, though that gap may close after last weekend.
N’Keal Harry, WR NE
Harry was the rookie 1.01 pick in DLF mocks as recently as May. His rookie ADP has since fallen to 1.04. His overall ADP has fallen from a peak of 42 in June to its current 63.
As the season approaches, dynasty owners shift to valuing immediate production and have moved three running backs ahead of Harry in rookie drafts, where he remains WR1. He has not played in a preseason game since leaving the August 8th game against Detroit, in which he did flash:
https://twitter.com/SavageBoston/status/1159620245381898242
This downtime presents a buy window for Harry. His impeccable prospect profile remains intact – 88th percentile college dominator, 95th percentile breakout age (18.7 years) and 98th percentile size-adjusted athleticism.
Harry remains my number four overall player in the DLF cornerstone rankings, with a low ranking of 11th from one member of the DLF team.
The DLF Trade Finder pulls real-life MyFantasyLeague trades and is searchable by player, league format and date. Recent trades involving Harry can be found here; the most recent include the following and show his current discount:
Hakeem Butler, WR ARI
The Arizona Cardinals placed Butler on injured reserve on August 25th, ending his rookie season. The pre-NFL Draft darling of the devy and dynasty communities will have to wait a year to produce in Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense.
I have never been able to fully get on board with Butler. Butler believers, however, now have a buy window for the rookie whose overall ADP reached a high of 50 in April. But he will now effectively be two years behind Christian Kirk, and one year behind Andy Isabella (another rookie receiver with an elite prospect profile) and sixth-round pick KeeSean Johnson, a darling of camp.
MyFantasyLeague trades are already showing a deep discount for Butler:
Thanks for reading the first installment of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on twitter at @threedownhack to discuss.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
