2019 IDP Projections: Chicago Bears
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
The Bears were one of the better defenses in the league in 2018 and have been assigned the yearly misplaced tag of top team defense. Thousands of people will be disappointed as they draft this unit on the back of last year’s performance and then watch as they drop back into the pack and other teams leap to the top in exactly the same way as the Jaguars did just a year ago, and many others before them.
One of the biggest reasons for expecting regression (aside from understanding that it is an inexorable truth) is the fact that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio left the team to take over the Broncos. He’s been replaced with Chuck Pagano. Pagano is a perfectly OK coach (aside from his bizarre behavior late in his Colts tenure) but he’s not likely to instantly preside over a super defense.
Defensive tackle
Eddie Goldman is a decent starter at nose tackle but he’s no more than that really. He just has a recognizable name. 25-30 solo tackles and one or two sacks are just not going to be enough to make him a good starter for you in most leagues.
Defensive end
Remaining with the interior, Akiem Hicks has been an incendiary player for the Bears. He’s played 2,612 snaps over the past three seasons which is enormous for a player like him. And he’s delivered 150 pressures on the back of that volume over the same period. It would be lovely to see him continue in that vein but for an interior player entering his age-30 season, it might be wise to temper expectations a little. He’s still a really good player but there are several reasons we could see his production drop off somewhat.
Bilal Nichols is the top player on the other side of Goldman as of now. It doesn’t matter too much though as the other players are likely to be fairly unusable as IDPs. They’ll have some sacks and spike weeks, but over the season don’t expect consistent excellence.
Inside linebacker
Roquan Smith was one of the amazing crop of rookies that shone instantly in 2018. The fact he comes in as an LB2 should not be seen as a negative at all – it’s simply a reflection of the fact that LB is a very flat position. The difference between a top-12 LB and one ranked 13-24 is less than one solo per game over a season and it often comes down to which players get banged up and miss a game or two.
Danny Trevathan is the second player here and his numbers reflect his challenges of staying healthy. He played all 16 games last year but even so has averaged just 620 snaps per season over the last five years. He’s a useful starting option as an IDP but comes with some worries.
Outside linebacker
Khalil Mack is obviously a superstar and should deliver yet more excellence. He’s coming off four seasons of double-digit sacks which make the numbers here look conservative. But predicting high-sack seasons is a very hard thing to do without just drinking the Kool-Aid on specific players. Regardless, he should be among the top OLBs in the NFL again and you should value him accordingly.
Leonard Floyd is still the other starter. He’s delivered 36 pressures in each of his three seasons which is frankly not good enough. That’s similar to Arik Armstead, Kyle Van Noy, Jordan Jenkins and Vic Beasley from 2018 and how many of those do you see suddenly exploding into really good pass-rushing IDP stars?
Cornerback
Kyle Fuller remains an IDP star. He leads the NFL in targets over the past two years even though he’s played consistently well, which is weird. He’s about as reliable as they come at the position.
Prince Amukamara has a reputation for high tackle numbers but it’s pretty misplaced. He bumped up against CB1 tackle numbers in 2018 but has averaged CB2 production for most of his career. He did have a very good year back in 2014 but that was a long time ago.
Safety
Eddie Jackson is a very tough player to peg. On the one hand, he’s a natural deep safety. On the other, he’s displayed a remarkable knack for big plays in his short career so far. Ultimately, as good as he is, it’s just not a good idea to expect a player to continue with high interception numbers. Jackson’s six from 2018 looks unsustainable. If you own him, you might as well ride it out but buying deep safeties at peak price is a bad idea.
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is a fun addition next to him given the Bears/Packers rivalry. Clinton-Dix is also more comfortable at safety which tells us Pagano is likely to use a lot of the two-deep shells he did with the Colts. Clinton-Dix is a big-name safety who will likely disappoint you over the season.
Stud – Kyle Fuller, CB
He’s only a corner so stud value is somewhat relative but Fuller has been just about as consistently excellent as you can get at the position in the last two years. Over that time, he’s amassed 109 solos, 30 PDs, and nine interceptions, so he’s effective in most scoring systems.
Disappointment – Eddie Jackson, S
Jackson has delivered fantastic results in his short career and hopefully, he can continue to do so. But expecting a repeat of his 2018 is likely unrealistic.
Ed Reed played 12 seasons and is a Hall-of-Famer. He managed eight picks in a year just three times and never in back to back seasons. Earl Thomas has never achieved eight in a year. It’s just not a number that’s going to happen again and even assuming five or six next year is very optimistic.
70 solos per season are generally the gateway to being a top-12 safety and Eddie Jackson managed 41 last season so it’s not as if he’ll make up for it. He’s an IDP disappointment waiting to happen.
Darkhorse – Khalil Mack, OLB
Obviously, Mack is a superstar pass rusher and his value mainly depends on how your league rewards outside LBs. But even in non-OLB premium leagues, he can be a weekly wildcard. His highs are spectacular enough that depending on how your team is built he might be a great choice for you anyway even if he is a darkhorse rather than a reliable option.
Summary
The Bears are a good solid defense and there aren’t many massive holes (aside from Leonard Floyd) but expecting them to be the number one overall defense in the league seems rabidly optimistic. There are five or so really good players here but a defense is only as good as its weakest player.
Thanks for reading.
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