2019 IDP Projections: Detroit Lions

Tom Kislingbury

As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.

The Lions were pretty abysmal in 2018 in Matt Patricia’s first season as a head coach.

They won six games but the only team with a winning record they beat were the Patriots – Patricia’s old team. Aside from that, their wins were against Miami, Arizona, Carolina, and Green Bay twice.

The defense was bottom ten overall. They were very solid against the run but not good enough in pass-rush or coverage – the two most important parts of a modern defense. As a direct result, they spent big on defensive end Trey Flowers and drafted four defenders with their first five picks.

Let’s see if the team can improve enough to save Patricia’s job.

Defensive tackle

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Defensive interior is a major strength on this team. They have three starting-quality players including the best run-stopping tackle in the NFL in Damon Harrison. A’Shawn Robinson is also excellent in that department with Mike Daniels being shockingly good as a third choice.

Any of these players can have big weeks but it’s going to be tough for them all to play enough to be consistently useful given none of them are elite pass rushers.

Defensive end

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Flowers is a legitimate top-ten end in the NFL – pretty easily. He’s excellent in the run game and above average as a pass rusher. His technique and discipline are utterly elite. He’s never quite had a breakthrough season as a pass rusher because he’s so fantastic at setting the edge. Expect more of the same in Detroit – top-level play but second-level production.

Behind him, Romeo Okwara seems to be the top choice. He’s bounced around a little bit looking for an opportunity to shine. He’s a big guy who is more of an edge-setter than a bendy speed rusher. I’m sure you see a pattern emerging. This is a line full of big men who can dominate gaps but are not going to be running super-wide corners to tag QBs.

I don’t need to even detail Da’Shawn Hand. He’s the same as the others here. He was excellent as a rookie but it’s worth noting that half of all his pressures came in a three-game streak. He played Miami and Green Bay in that streak.

Linebacker

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Jarrad Davis is a frustrating player. He’s been productive and showed plenty of good things on tape. But his issues are there for all to see. He was abysmal in coverage as a rookie and not much better in 2018. Plus, he collects missed tackles like they’re going out of fashion – 36 in two years.

He is a good pass rusher and he can attack what’s in front of him as well as anyone but he’s just not reliable. He should get the first stab at playing the single productive inside LB role in this defense but he’s no lock to keep it all year.

Behind him is second-round draft pick Jahlani Tavai. He certainly looks the part (his bulked-up physique and flowing hair are reminiscent of Maui from Moana) but he is also an old-fashioned sort of player. He can attack gaps but if you ask him to turn or play in zone, he’s a little more lost.

Devon Kennard will reprise his Sam role. He’s basically an extra pass-rusher in this defense (playing the Dont’a Hightower role in New England).

And that leaves Christian Jones and Jalen Reeves-Maybin on the outside looking in. They are clearly the more mobile LBs on this roster but don’t expect them to play enough to be consistent IDPs.

Cornerback

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Corner has been a hole aside from the odd year for a long time in Detroit. Darius Slay is a top starter on one side but the other has been a work in progress for years. Even Nevin Lawson never truly convinced. Teez Tabor was a promising second-round pick in 2017 but looked frankly atrocious in 2018. He allowed a perfect QB rating of 158.3 in targets directed into his primary coverage. He allowed 22 completions from 27 targets, for 371 yards and four touchdowns, while not getting his hands on a single pass. That’s pretty rough. If it does not improve rapidly, he’ll be permanently benched.

Justin Coleman is a slot DB which leaves Rashaan Melvin (let go by the Colts and Raiders in the last two seasons) and Amani Oruwariye (a fifth-round rookie) as the other options. It doesn’t look great.

Safety

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Safety is the most confusing position in this defense. What you need to remember is that there is no clear-cut strong safety here. Quandre Diggs spent about half his time playing deep in 2018 – Glover Quin about the same.

Tracy Walker is likely to do the same this season. Tavon Wilson is more of a box safety but he’s likely to play limited snaps. All in all, this is a pretty poor place for you to look for an IDP. For the same reasons you generally don’t use Patriots safeties.

Stud – Darius Slay, CB

Some may say that given Slay is very good and the other corners very poor he won’t get targeted enough. But Slay has 25 PDs over the past two seasons. In 2018, only two other players managed more than he did (12). At the same time, he’s recorded respectable tackle numbers his whole career. Slay is a great example that most of what you think is true for picking IDP corners is wrong.

Disappointment – Quandre Diggs, S

Diggs has got a cool name and was a great pickup from waivers at the end of 2017. His owners desperately want him to be good. But the reality is not as exciting. He’s an OK safety who has some good weeks but is unlikely to be a difference-making top-12 option for you.

Darkhorse – Jahlani Tavai, LB

If Jarrad Davis does lose his job, Tavai could find himself manning the inside role which can be very productive. There’s a lot of moving parts to this but he has the talent and draft capital and is worth keeping an eye on.

Summary

This is an unusual team. The front seven is defiantly old-school and full of large, tough men who can dominate gaps. That’s lovely but the team desperately needs an injection of speed, mobility and action. It’s not easy to see where that can come from.

Thanks for reading.

tom kislingbury