2019 ADP Overachievers: Eight Dynasty Buys

Eric Hardter Posted On August 23, 2019

With preseason games in full swing, and the regular season only weeks away, now may be the final time for shrewd owners looking to put the finishing touches on their rosters to make moves that might not be available a short time from now. To that point, while off-season tune-up games showcase the first real football action in months, it’s easy to use these exhibition contests as a blank canvas to paint whatever portrait of confirmation bias we’d like to see. We can craft any number of narratives predicated on things like snap counts, play-calling schemes, and aggregate statistics versus guys who will be bagging groceries next month. In other words, value is currently written in pencil, not pen.

But once players hit the field for games that actually count, their respective dynasty valuations will fluctuate accordingly. These movements will be more indelible, and buying and selling players at anything outside the standard deviation of their cost will prove challenging. So why not use these next couple of weeks to make some moves!

To that point, I’m highlighting a number of players who I believe will increase in value as the regular season goes on, and could be at their cheapest now. In doing so, I will partition them out by ADP “zones” – after all, a player moving up six slots in the first round has arguably gained more value than a player jumping from the seventh round of startup drafts to the fourth. These zones (August ADP ranges) are defined as follows:

1-16
17-35
36-50
51-75
76-100
100-140
141-200
200+

So without further introduction, here’s who I think you should be buying!

Michael Thomas, WR NO (ADP = 9.3)

Getting back to the above, there’s not a ton of room for growth, as Thomas is already the ninth player off the board on average. But is that already too low? This is a player who is only 26 years old (same age as Odell Beckham, and younger than DeAndre Hopkins) and is, quite literally, historically good at football. To that point, Thomas has more receptions (321) through his first three seasons than anyone who has preceded him in the NFL.

He’s never had fewer than 92 receptions in a given year, nor fewer than 1,100 yards. He needs to score the ball a bit better to become truly elite (“only” 23 touchdowns through three seasons), but he’s tied to one of the best offenses in the league for years (he just signed a record-setting contract), and lacks competition for targets. With another big season (110-1,500-10), he could be a top-three player at this time next year.

Todd Gurley, RB LAR (ADP = 19.3)

Imagine you’re Todd Gurley. You’re a former first round pick who came into the league so early that you just turned 25 a few weeks ago, despite already having four NFL seasons under your belt. These four seasons have resulted in finishes as the PPR RB9, RB15, RB1, and RB3 (though you were the RB1 in PPR PPG by over two full points). You were the top dynasty asset as recently as last November, and now ten other ball carriers are being selected in front of you.

What gives?

Yes, we know about the injury. And yes, there are rumors Gurley’s workload will be scaled back, and another exciting runner was selected in the third round of the NFL Draft. But nothing Gurley has done when on the field describes this mammoth loss in value.

Reports are he’s looking as explosive as ever, and is still clearly the lead dog in one of the NFL’s best offenses. Even if he isn’t transcendent a la 2017 and 2018, his skill and usage should see him land as a high-end PPR RB1. For the price of a late second round pick, that’s worth banking on.

Derrick Henry, RB TEN (ADP = 48.2)

Worries about Henry are fair, as his PPR RB1-tier finish was predicated on an absolutely enormous final quarter to the season. Quite simply, we need to see that consistency played out over a larger sample size. I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen in 2019.

The Titans offense should be improved across the board, including at OL, WR, TE and, ostensibly, QB (health for Marcus Mariota is an improvement, if nothing else). Henry is already singled out as the focal point of the offense, as Mike Vrabel seems to have figured out which side of his bread to butter. We know he has workhorse ability from his days in college, so 300 touches isn’t out of a question for a team that wants to control the clock. I’d argue he has higher upside than at least 10 of the running backs being picked in front of him, and said upside is decidedly achievable. This may be your last chance to get a discount.

Hunter Henry, TE LAC (ADP = 64.3)

It was only two years ago when a sophomore Henry corralled 45 receptions for 579 yards and four touchdowns. This was good for the third-most yards on the team, with two of the players who combined for 121 other targets that year (Tyrell Williams and Antonio Gates) now gone from the team. Receiver Mike Williams stands to benefit, but so does Henry.

As much as I like him as a player, I don’t think the Chargers want Keenan Allen to double the next closest target share. So the wealth from an efficient quarterback in Philip Rivers could and should be spread somewhat equally between Allen, Williams and Henry. While I don’t believe he has the upside of a Travis Kelce, George Kittle or Zach Ertz, a finish in the range of TE4 isn’t out of the question, which could lead to an ADP increase of a couple rounds.

Robby Anderson, WR NYJ (ADP = 80.3)

Anderson is living that Doug Baldwin and Adam Thielen life, where it’s taking the collective dynasty community a few moments to recognize that the former UDFA has some legitimate skills. On an unimaginative offense with poor quarterback play, Anderson was still able to post a per-game average of 3.8-56-0.4 over the past two seasons. That doesn’t seem like much, but for a team that finished 24th and 25th in passing yardage, and 25th and 26th in passing touchdowns over the past two seasons, it looks a bit better.

Say what you will about Adam Gase, but he’s a significantly better offensive mind than what the J-E-T-S have had in years prior. He’s been using Anderson more creatively, and no longer solely as a deep threat. With more improvement from Sam Darnold, I think we could be looking at a 1,000-yard receiver in 2019.

Jaylen Samuels, RB PIT (ADP = 117.5)

James Conner was great in 2018, capably filling in for Le’Veon Bell during his absence from team activities. However, apart from a midseason explosion against the Ravens, much of this occurred by feasting on poorer defenses, and in games that Pittsburgh won handily. With no Antonio Brown, it’s fair to posit Conner’s efficiency could wane, and he could lose touches to competition.

I expect Samuels to be that competition. He was efficient on the ground across his 56 carries (4.6 YPC), but more importantly he caught an impressive 26 of his 29 targets. It’s that latter area in particular where I expect Samuels to make his mark. 125-175 touches aren’t out of the question to me, and if he indeed buoys that production due to usage in the passing game, he will, at minimum, be viewed as one of fantasy’s best “1b” ball carriers.

Terry McLaurin, WR WSH (ADP = 153.0)

I’m a big fan of McLaurin, and have been buying him everywhere. Like, literally. He’s now one of two players (Rivers being the other) who I have 100% ownership of across my four leagues (yeah, I’m a lightweight in terms of league volume), largely in anticipation of a huge bump in value.

Over the past several years, McLaurin may just possibly present the best combination of skillset and landing spot we’ve seen for a rookie. It’s true his breakout age leaves much to be desired, and he’s one of the older rookies to enter the league (already 23 years old). However, there were a lot of talented mouths to feed over the years at Ohio State, and until the 2018 season, not a lot of passing yards and touchdowns to go around.

His physical profile suggests he’s capable of more. Redskins head coach Jay Gruden clearly believes so as well, hyping the rookie through the roof, and giving him “starter treatment” in the first preseason game (McLaurin sat out the second contest due to a minor injury). Advanced metrics show he’s a gifted route runner, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him lead Washington in receiving despite his freshman status.

Daniel Jones, QB NYG (ADP = 221.5)

What if, and bear with me here, Dave Gettleman got it right? We all remember the draft night reaction when the Giants selected sixth overall. In short, it wasn’t great. But all Jones has done since then is look like a composed player who took his lumps on a poor college team, only to showcase what he can do with actual NFL talent around him.

I’m not saying he’s going to become the next Pat Mahomes, or even approach starting viability as a rookie. But it appears he’s better than the naysayers were anticipating, and the Giants already know what they have in incumbent Eli Manning (spoiler: it ain’t much). With mid-range QB2-type players going in the mid-hundreds of the ADP, all Jones has to do is show a pulse to gain value. Quarterback isn’t sexy outside of superflex and 2QB leagues, but a highly drafted signal caller who shows promise in year one isn’t going to reside outside of the ADP top 200 for long.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.