2019 IDP Projections: Arizona Cardinals

Ryan Early

As per last year, Tom Kislingbury will be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. He uses past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate he was in 2018 in his IDP Projection Marking series. Today’s article is written by Ryan Early.

A new head coach (Kliff Kingsbury), the drafting of quarterback Kyler Murray, and the full installation of an Air Raid offense have all made the headlines this NFL off-season. But big changes are afoot on the defensive side of the ball as well.

After switching to a 4-3 defense last year under one-and-done head coach Steve Wilks, the Cardinals are switching right back to using a 3-4 base under new defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. In the front seven, the scheme is a better fit for Arizona’s personnel; star pass rusher Chandler Jones was vocally enthusiastic when told of the change. But Joseph is making his own mark on the defensive personnel, and the secondary could play very differently than past years. That leaves a lot of uncertainty regarding how Joseph will use his players, and how many snaps each will get.

But there is also an opportunity to be had in rostering Cardinals IDPs. With the offense’s expected fast pace of play, and the defense’s expected struggles to get off the field, there will be a lot of snaps played by the Cards’ defenders. And as I’ve been saying all year, snap counts are the single best predictor of accumulating stats.

Defensive tackle

word image 100

Defensive end

word image 101

After taking a long look at the returning veterans through the off-season program and minicamp, the Cardinals cut underachieving former first-round pick Robert Nkemdiche – due to his poor work ethic – as well as projected starting defensive end Darius Philon after an off-field arrest.

That does not leave much depth along the three-man front. Based on how Joseph ran the defense his last two years in Denver, the linemen’s primary job will be to occupy blockers so that the outside linebackers have a better shot at getting to the quarterback. But remember, a sack caused by a quarterback evading the outside pressure only to be pulled down by partially blocked interior lineman still counts as a sack.

Rodney Gunter is the best of the remaining linemen, though Corey Peters is pretty decent for a nose tackle. Rookie Zach Allen is mainly a stash and hold candidate in deep leagues only. Whether the last spot in the end rotation goes to Cameron Malveaux or Robert McClain, it’s incredibly doubtful he’ll have enough snaps to be fantasy-relevant.

Inside linebacker

word image 102

Jordan Hicks comes over from the Eagles where he played very well when he was actually on the field. He will be trying to fight off the “injury-prone” label this year, but none of his injuries to date are the type to cause permanent limitations. Because of that, Hicks is one of the few Cardinal IDPs to own in fantasy.

Hicks will mop up some extra tackles by playing next to the woefully inefficient Haason Reddick, who came into the league as an incredibly athletic but raw first-round prospect, and had his development stunted last season with the switch to the 4-3. This is a make or break year for Reddick, but unfortunately, we haven’t seen much evidence of him understanding how to play stack linebacker well enough to properly utilize his athletic gifts.

Outside linebacker

word image 103

While Chandler Jones prefers to drop back into coverage five times per game playing 3-4 OLB as opposed twice per game as a 4-3 DE, all fantasy owners playing traditional IDP leagues were distraught when they heard the news of his position switch. Jones is one of the better pass rushers in the league. But even with a dozen sacks, accruing under thirty tackles on a season doesn’t do much for a linebacker fantasy-wise. Now, if you have Jones as an Edge in a True Position league, then Jones is a top starter for you.

The Baltimore Ravens assumed they’d be able to re-sign the soon to be 37-year-old Terrell Suggs on the cheap for one last season, and were stunned when he went back to his old pre-NFL stomping grounds. Suggs played high school in Chandler, Arizona and college at Arizona State. Don’t expect Suggs to play full games at his age. But he hasn’t had a pass rusher better than him on the opposite side of the field since Elvis Dumervil in 2014 when they combined for 30 sacks. An older Suggs teaming up with Jones to get to the passer 20 total times doesn’t seem like much of a reach.

The Cardinals signed Andre Branch just before the start of training camp, but there was a reason he was still available as a free agent, and even if he makes the regular-season roster, you should not expect much from him.

Cornerback

word image 104

The starting cornerback opposite Patrick Peterson has been a revolving door for the past six years. If you could predict who the team was going to start in that spot in a given week, he was a pretty good streaming option.

General manager Steve Keim made moves to shore up the spot both in both free agency, signing Robert Alford from Atlanta, and using a second-round draft pick on rookie Byron Murphy out of Washington. Then Peterson goes and gets suspended for the first six games of the season for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy. And then Robert Alford broke his leg.

In the best-case scenario for the team, Murphy and Tramaine Brock gel quickly with their increased playing time, and then make for an excellent unit once Peterson comes back with ten games left to go. More likely, opposing quarterbacks will have a field day against them to start the season.

Because of safety Budda Baker’s ability to play in the slot, the team’s third corner on the depth chart may not get as much playing time as you would see on other teams.

Safety

word image 105

Before Vance Joseph became a defensive coordinator and head coach, he was a long-time defensive backs coach. He has typically gone with two back safeties, playing left and right, rather than assign them different responsibilities. That should be flashing warning alarms to all Budda Baker owners, as he has spent his entire career to this point either in the slot or in the box.

However, it’s safe to say that Joseph has never had a better pair of starting safeties than Baker and D.J. Swearinger, who was a Pro Bowl alternate last year despite getting cut by Washington mid-season after he publicly criticized his coaching. GM Keim was quick to claim Swearinger off waivers and bring him back to the where he had his best year.

The Cards then drafted Deionte Thompson in the fifth round out of Alabama when he slid from a projected second round due to a poor recorded 40-time, allegedly because of a not-fully-healed groin injury. On tape, Thompson showed great savvy and anticipation on the field, and if (and this is a big if) Joseph decides to get creative with how he uses his top three safeties, this could be an intriguing unit.

Stud – Chandler Jones, OLB (Or Jordan Hicks, LB)

Only if you play with the Edge designation. Otherwise, the closest thing this team has to a fantasy stud would be LB Jordan Hicks, who projects more realistically as a high-end LB2.

Disappointment – Chandler Jones, OLB

For most of us playing in leagues without the Edge position, Jones switching from end to LB is a complete disaster, destroying the value of one of the better NFL players.

Darkhorse – D.J. Swearinger, S

In 2016, the last time Swearinger was in Arizona, he had three interceptions eight passes defensed, two sacks, five tackles for loss, and 64 combined tackles while sharing the safety position with Tony Jefferson and Tyrann Mathieu. While there’s a good chance Swearinger plays back, covering half the deep field a majority of snaps, there’s also a good chance that he will be a highly efficient tackler and big-play artist on the snaps in which he gets to vary his role.

Summary

While the Cardinals offense will command attention and curiosity, we should get to see a lot of defensive snaps in their games. If the offense is explosive with Kyler Murray a rookie of the year candidate, then Jones, Suggs, and the defensive backs will be seeing a lot of pass plays in high scoring shootouts. That makes for some interesting IDP potential on a team that is largely being overlooked this year.