2019 IDP Projections: Green Bay Packers
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
The Packers broke from their history this off-season by splashing the cash on big free agents. Historically, they’ve preferred to promote from within and develop talent, but Mike Pettine clearly convinced everyone that they’d never get anywhere without an influx of pass-rushing talent. Given Pettine learned his trade under the Ryan Brothers this is no surprise.
The Packers finished 14th in pressures in 2018 in Pettine’s first year in charge but this year, we should expect more of the Ryan Family defense principles to come in. Remember it all originated with the “46 defense” which was characterized by extreme blitzing with Rex and Rob only refining the same principles. This is a 3-4 defense in name but we’re going to see plenty of funky sets. Expect one- and two-man lines with linebackers and defensive backs blitzing to be a constant presence. It’s risky but has extreme upside if it can all come together.
Defensive tackle
Kenny Clark is the nose tackle here in this defense but given how multiple it is, he does line up in various spots. He should be productive but is unlikely to be an elite IDP in most leagues.
Defensive end
There’s been a lot of change here with Mike Daniels and Muhammad Wilkerson departed. The team would only sanction those moves if they were sure they had adequate replacements already. The coaches see these players every day. Assuming our impression of how good players are and thinking the team is wrong is terrible arrogance on our part.
Lowry has been a very good player on limited snaps in his career so far, especially against the run. Montravius Adams struggled as a rookie in 2017 but came on well as 2018 progressed. Expect a little bit of rotation at these two spots but those two to be the most productive.
Inside linebacker
It’s such a shame that Oren Burks got injured (with a torn pectoral muscle). Hopefully, he can be designated as a returnee from IR. His college career hinted at him as a prototype hybrid – somewhere between a linebacker and safety with the best bits of both. He’s not shown it at all yet as a pro though.
In his absence, expect Curtis Bolton to step up a little but honestly it could be anyone. It’s not likely to be a full-time role anyway (Pettine likes big nickel) and should not be an IDP for most of us.
Blake Martinez, of course, is the headliner here. He’s locked into a full-time role and should continue to provide steady if unspectacular production.
Outside linebacker
This is the most exciting part of this roster. Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith were given the aforementioned big money and should pay back fast. They’ll be asked to move around the formation and blitz from various spots. Expect a lot of stunts in particular.
Rashan Gary was selected extremely early and will be the third rusher. He has all the athletic tools you could ask for but his production through college and preseason (through two games) has been lacking. Expect a relatively slow rookie season as he gets up to speed (pun not intended).
Kyle Fackrell is the last significant rusher. He is the clearest case of regression from 2018 in the NFL aside from maybe Eric Ebron. Fackrell secured 12 sacks in 2018 (counting half sacks as full ones) from just 23 pressures. Hitting 20% in terms of sacks:pressure is good. Fackrell was up at 48%. You should have sold him as an IDP months ago. If you’re still holding him, it’s on you.
Cornerback
After investing multiple high picks into the defensive back positions, the Packers finally seem relatively secure. Jaire Alexander is hugely exciting. Kevin King has all the potential (if he can stay healthy) and Josh Jackson at least showed flashes as a rookie. With Tramon Williams still in place, this is a solid unit.
Alexander should be your top target and he has a good chance of producing IDP-relevant numbers.
Safety
I got a question about Josh Jones today. It’s amazing how half a season of good production can make people believe a player is good. Jones is an efficient tackler but really not that good and is strictly a backup/role player.
If the team liked him, they would not have invested so heavily into Adrian Amos (as a free agent) and Darnell Savage (as a first-round draft pick). Both should play relatively deep which is going to be frustrating for IDP owners but they’ll both play enough to be relevant with sporadic big weeks.
Stud – Blake Martinez, LB
Martinez isn’t that exciting, but he has just posted regular, steady numbers for two seasons straight now. He’s again likely to finish between low LB1 and high LB2 status.
Disappointment – Adrian Amos, S
Amos is a big-name safety and the Packers paid him a lot of cash, but prepare to be underwhelmed. This is in many ways a two-deep scheme and he’s just not going to have as many opportunities to pile up tackles in the box as we’d like.
Darkhorse – Za’Darius Smith, OLB
This depends on your scoring settings most of all. In leagues where OLBs are good (hello True Position!), he’s an exciting option. In others, he’s just dead weight or a deep gamble at best.
Summary
This team has a lot of exciting vibes around it. They’ve added a lot of talent over the past two or three years and it’s all set up to come together in 2019. It’s a high-risk defense but there’s likely to be weeks where they blow their opponents out of the water. It’s going to be really fun watching it.
Thanks for reading.
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