Devy Notes: Under the Radar Wide Receivers

Bruce Matson

According to Dunbar’s Number, there are only 150 individuals who a person can maintain relationships with. This theory correlates with scouting draft prospects. The deeper the pool gets with talent, the harder it is for an individual to completely analyze and maintain a full understanding of the potential for any given draft class. That’s one of the reasons why we see some players slip through the cracks and fall to the seventh round or even undrafted and develop into a multi-year Pro Bowlers at the NFL level.

There are a lot of factors that prevent prospects from receiving the recognition they deserve. Playing on a team that doesn’t receive national attention could be a reason why a player won’t receive the notoriety they deserve. A wide receiver who shares the offense with other talented pass catchers could also not get the publicity as some of the other talented receivers in their draft class.

It’s part of the game. Players fall under the radar and become unknown success stories almost all the time. Some players gain a lot of steam a few months before the draft and others exceed expectations and develop to their potential a few years into their NFL career.

That’s why we have to always keep our options open and view the entire draft class from top to bottom. See how players can win on the field and match their skill sets with their new NFL teams. The process is fun and can be rewarding. Being subjective and looking at all the pieces to the puzzle is one of the few ways to find prospects that could develop into that diamond in the rough that we are always looking for.

Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina

Edwards caught 55 passes for 846 yards and seven touchdowns last year, equating to a 23.85 percent market share of the team’s offensive production and a 22.86 percent dominator rating. He was second on the team in receiving yards behind Deebo Samuel and led the team in receiving the year prior. Edwards received a 19.86 percent target share and saw 36.26 percent of his targets on first and ten.

He’s almost a sure thing when it comes to contested catches. Catching difficult balls downfield comes easy for him. His 6-foot-3 and 215-pound frame allows him to box out defenders, preventing them from crashing downs and disrupting the catch. Edwards’ hands are very sticky, considering he can catch passes over his head and away from his body. He’s just a bully at the catch point and will do whatever it takes to convert the catch.

When it comes to sheer athleticism, he’s fast enough to get downfield. According to Pro Football Focus, he had a 124.5 deep passer rating on targets that were 20 yards or more. He doesn’t create a lot of separation on short to intermediate routes, but his size and his my-ball mentality make him tough to cover.

I think he’s a very underrated prospect. College football is oozing through the seams with talented wide receivers which is allowing Edwards to slip through the cracks. He’s currently an early second-round pick in devy drafts. In any other era, he would be a bonafide first-round option. I believe Edwards could make an impact in fantasy if he gets drafted to a team that has a quarterback who’s not afraid to fit the ball into tight windows. He’s a major red-zone threat. Even when he’s covered he is still open. His ability to convert contested catches are second to none.

This is going to be a do-or-die season for him. There’s going to be a lot of competition in next year’s draft and he will need to improve upon his production from last year. A 1,000-yard season will be a great addition to his resume. He’s already one of the top wide receivers in college football. I have him ranked eighth in my devy rankings. A good season will definitely elevate his draft stock.

K.J. Hill, WR Ohio State

With the departure of Parris Campbell, Terry McLaurin and Johnnie Dixon to the NFL, there are 212 vacated targets in Ohio State’s passing offense. Hill was the second-most productive wide receiver on the team last year behind Campbell catching 70 passes for 885 yards and six touchdowns.

He caught 78.7% of the passes thrown his way while accumulating a 17.35 percent market share of the team’s passing production and a 14.56 percent dominator rating. With Ohio State having four wide receivers surpassing the 500-yard mark, his ownership rate is more impressive than most people realize.

Hill’s hands are sticky. He can catch the ball away from his body. He also does a good job at tracking the ball while it’s in the air and catching the ball in stride without losing speed. Hill is the type of receiver who can make tough catches look easy. According to PFF, his 79.7 percent catch rate while operating from the slot was the best in the Big 10.

Athleticism isn’t an issue with Hill. He has more than enough speed to get behind the defense. When getting off the line of scrimmage, he has the burst to eat the cushion between him and the defensive back. He might not have been the fastest player on the team, considering Campbell and McLaurin were straight speed demons for Ohio State. However, he’s not going to disappoint at the Scouting Combine. His speed helped him achieve 12.6 yards per catch and 2.73 yards per route run last season.

Everything he does looks effortless. He’s a crisp route runner who creates separation in multiple different ways. His ability to stretch the field makes him a versatile slot receiver because he does the work underneath and tests the defense with his speed. He accumulated 380 yards after the catch and per PFF had a 115.4 passer rating when targeted.

Hill is flying under the radar in devy leagues because he was being overshadowed by Campbell and the rest of the receiving corps on the team. Ohio State’s wide receivers are hard to gauge from a talent perspective because they do a very good job at spreading around the football. They are also almost always loaded with talented pass catchers, making it hard for anyone of their receivers to stand out amongst the rest. With that being said, he shouldn’t be overlooked. Hill has the potential to climb the ranks if he can exceed expectations and compile big-time numbers during his senior season.

Nico Collins, WR Michigan

Let’s rewind things back to 2017 when Michigan arguably recruited one of their best wide receiver classes in the program’s history. They were able to sign five-star prospect Donovan Peoples-Jones who – according to 247Sports – was rated the top wide receiver in the country at that time. They were also able to reel in Tarik Black, a four-star recruit who was rated the 15th-best wide receiver in the class. The third big name in their recruiting class was four-star recruit Nico Collins. After landing three very talented receivers, it appears Michigan was set to have one of the top wide receiver corps in the nation.

Even though the injury bug bit Black and Peoples-Jones didn’t live up to five-star expectations, Collins is the wide receiver on the team who is starting to receive some national attention. Previously, he was considered the lesser of the three wide receivers but he’s starting to receive more notoriety and his draft stock is on the rise. He caught 38 passes for 632 yards and six touchdowns last year which doesn’t sound like much, but it was enough to garner a 22.54 percent share of the passing offense and a 23.77 percent dominator rating.

Collins had a strong finish to his sophomore year. In his last two games, he tallied four catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State and five catches for 80 yards against Florida. What was most impressive was how he was able to accumulate those statistics. Against the Buckeyes, he reeled in a couple of tough contested catches in the end zone. He also made a few tough grabs against Florida in Michigan’s bowl game.

What makes Collins an intriguing prospect is his ability to get off the line of scrimmage and take ownership of the space between him and the defensive back. The defender has to adjust while also accounting for Collins’ size. If smaller defensive backs aren’t in the right position when the ball is in the air, then Collins is more than likely going to come down with the catch. His 6-foot-4 and 218-pound frame combined with his body control at the catch point makes him hard to cover when the ball is in transit to its destination.

He’s not a burner but he has enough speed to challenge the defense but he’s not going to burn the defense like a Henry Ruggs or a Tyreek Hill type of player would. According to PFF, Collins has a 103.2 passer rating when receiving deep targets that are traveling 20 yards or more. Even with him seeing a lot of deep targets, he still experienced a zero percent drop rate in 2018. He led all Wolverine receivers with 11 plays resulting in 15 yards or more and he also converted 13 contested catches.

The Big Ten is emerging with a lot of great receivers. Collins is one of them. The most overlooked facet of the Michigan offense is the addition of Josh Gattis. He spent 2018 as the co-offensive coordinator and the wide receivers coach for Alabama. Before his tenure at Alabama, he was the wide receivers coach for Penn State where he developed Chris Godwin and DaeSean Hamilton. His lineage of developing receivers goes even further as prior to his time at Penn State, he developed Jordan Matthews at Vanderbilt.

Gattis will also be calling the plays for the Wolverines. He’s a wide receivers coach at heart and that means he’s going to want to funnel the ball to his talented pass catchers. We should see an increase in production from Collins, Peoples-Jones, Tarik Black, and the rest of the receivers in the offense. This could be a totally different Michigan team compared to a year ago. Collins should see a ramp in his development which could make him a highly anticipated draft prospect by the end of the year.

I’ve been intrigued by Michigan’s passing game ever since the inception of their 2017 recruiting class. There’s a lot of untapped potential in this offense. Collins and the rest of the receiving corps could get unleashed this season. This could be a scary proposition for the Big 10. If freshman running back Zach Charbonnet hits this season and Gattis gets the passing game rolling, then we are talking about a Michigan team that could run deep into the playoffs.

bruce matson