Jarvis Landry: Fantasy Football Groundhog

Bobby Koch Posted On August 18, 2019

I can’t help but feel like I’m in Groundhogs Day each off-season. Every off-season, the townspeople of Twitter tell me that Jarvis Landry is in fact a bad receiver. Every off-season, myself and a select few others tell them they are wrong. On and on it goes, and if there is some life-altering lesson I’m supposed to learn to be released from the loop, I clearly haven’t gotten the memo yet.

That said, I do need to come clean about something. I thought last year would be great for Landry. He was finally out of Miami and was going to be featured as a team primary target. Sure, that team was the Browns, but things were looking up.

Things didn’t quite work out as planned. Landry had his worst season since his rookie season, only managing to put up an 81-976-4 line on 149 targets. Through 16 weeks last season, that was good enough to make him WR20 in PPR points per game. However, I’d be lying to say I wasn’t expecting at least high-end WR2 numbers (14-16 range in PPR points) and really I thought he’d pretty easily be a WR1.

Granted, I didn’t know that he’d be playing his first season in a new offense for both a coach and offensive coordinator who would be fired mid-season. I also figured a quarterback change would come at some point, but still at the time thought his skillset matched up better with Tyrod Taylor than with Baker Mayfield.

In fact, it’s a small sample, but according to Rotoviz’s game splits app, Landry was significantly better with Taylor despite the rest of the offense being horrific. That said, Landry was still Mayfield’s most targeted receiver. He had a healthy 127 targets in the 14 games that Mayfield started.

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Still, at this point, I’m sure I just sound like a Landry apologist. I know in some views, things haven’t gotten much better for him. The Browns offense is crowded, including the new addition of Odell Beckham. There’s no way with his low aDot career numbers that Landry can get the target numbers he needs to sustain fantasy success right?

Not so fast. In case you didn’t hear, just like 30-50 feral hogs and your children, Landry and Beckham played together when they were younger. It may have been in college and six years ago, but the last time they were on the field together, they both had over 1100 receiving yards and at least eight touchdowns.

The Browns offense also got a little less crowded when they dealt Duke Johnson to the Browns. Johnson is coming off the lowest amount of targets in his Browns career, and that was 62. Johnson operated in areas of the field where Landry excels, and it’s easy to see many of those targets going his way.

Sure, David Njoku is still there, but realistically it’s hard to see the team expanding upon his 88 targets from last season drastically. Last season, only five tight ends saw 100 or more targets and they were either Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, or someone on a team devoid of other options. I could see Njoku’s target share raising to 100, but I doubt it goes much past that.

Did I mention that Antonio Callaway – who is suspended for four games – saw 79 targets last year? I know Rashard Higgins is nicknamed Hollywood so some might see him as more flashy, but I really can’t imagine the team deciding to feed him a significant amount of targets at the cost of getting Landry the ball. Of course, now that I’ve said that, it might be worthwhile for you to pick up Higgins for his eventual breakouts.

Jokes about Higgins aside, it wouldn’t be fair to say the additions to the Browns offense don’t cap Landry. They do. He’s not going to be the alpha dog for this team. Though not everyone has to be the top guy to excel.

Maybe this is the lesson I had to learn. Is Landry a stud wide receiver in either real life or fantasy like I hoped he might be in the 2018 season? No. I think we can say he’s pretty clearly not. However, he is a high-end WR2, who should excel with Odell Beckham taking some attention off him. He is also the player who currently holds the record for receptions five seasons into their career with 481. When we play a format that rewards points per reception, that matters.

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After last season, Landry’s ADP has hit a career low. He currently finds himself as the 64th player off the board in Dynasty League Football’s August ADP. He finds himself behind some players such as Allen Robinson, Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Christian Kirk who I’m easily taking him over.

The thing that often gets overlooked when talking about a player like Landry is roster construction. Everyone thinks he is “safe”. You don’t need to be a genius to know that “safe” is code for not sexy or flashy.

However, what he offers is stability. If you have Landry on your team, it allows you to roster and even start riskier players knowing if they have a bad week you won’t you. In fact, having Landry on your fantasy roster makes it easier to tolerate taking roster shots hoping you’ll find the next Odell Beckham.

Some recent trades using DLF’s trade finder tool include:

Jarvis Landry for Christian Kirk and a 2020 third
Jarvis Landry for Rashaad Penny
Jarvis Landry for James White
Jarvis Landry for Alshon Jeffery and a 2020 second
Jarvis Landry for James Conner, Marquise Lee, and Emmanuel Sanders

Admittedly, if anyone offered me that last one, I’d smash accept in a heartbeat. That said, the others are more questionable to me. I’d possibly take the Alshon Jeffery one, but still think I prefer Landry. I definitely prefer Landry to Penny who hasn’t shown anything in his first NFL season, and White who was solid last season but generally been little more than a flex player.

Ultimately, let’s not forget this “safe” 26-year-old has finished in the top seven in PPR points as recently as two seasons ago. He also finds himself with a sophomore quarterback who just broke the rookie record for touchdowns. Landry may not be elite, but he is a very good football player who doesn’t get the respect he deserves. I’ll see you all again around this time next year to see if Landry sees his shadow or not.