2019 IDP Projections: Baltimore Ravens
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
The Ravens were a pretty good team last year. They actually had a bad record in close games too, which tells us they were even better than we thought.
A lot of people can’t get past their offense this year. Sure, they’re going to run the ball a lot instead of throwing it. But so did the Seahawks last year and so did the Titans. It’s not that weird.
The defense has undergone some startling change. Terrell Suggs has left the team after 34 years as a Raven and the other top pass rusher Za’Darius Smith is also gone. Eric Weddle enjoyed his short stay but has left the team and CJ Mosley was tempted by bags of money from the Jets. Is this the end of the great Ravens’ defenses?
Defensive tackle
Michael Pierce should be the top option at nose tackle this season. The numbers above would be on the high side for him but in this scheme, it’s a distinct possibility.
Rookie Daylon Mack should also get the chance to play some with a versatile D line.
Defensive end
Brandon Williams should benefit from having Willie Henry fit again. These two are the top options here but expect a rotation of large, heavy men along this line. There’s likely no IDP options here for you.
Inside linebacker
With Mosley gone this position is wide open. Patrick Onwuasor and Kenny Young shared a job last year. They only played 804 snaps between them. Kenny young was the popular choice (because he was young and new) but he’s a really very average player. Onwuasor is no superstar either but at least has a trump card in his pass-rushing.
In camp and preseason so far, Onwuasor has been above Young with Chris Board as a starter too. Board was an undrafted free agent a year ago and played just 20 defensive snaps (ten in week one) while being a special teamer at heart. He hasn’t proved anything yet (in public at least) but he’s a red-hot pickup. Someone is likely to inherit Mosley’s role and it’s a very productive one. Board is free in many leagues still but should be owned in most decent-sized leagues.
Outside linebacker
On the edge, it’s all change with last year’s top two gone. Matt Judon steps in as one guaranteed starter but the other snaps are up for grabs.
The top three last season played between 650-750 snaps with Tyus Bowser and Tim Williams fighting for scraps. Expect similar this year. Pernell McPhee managed 7.5 sacks last time he was a Raven and is probably the favorite to step up whilst Tim Williams has flashed the ability that made him such a good college player (albeit on limited snaps).
Bowser is a physical clone of Khalil Mack and Jaylon Ferguson is a third-round pick coming off a destructive final year in college. This is a fun position group even if it’s likely to be a frustrating one for IDP owners outside of best-ball leagues.
Cornerback
Some have said this is the best corner group in the NFL. That seems a little strong but there’s a lot of talent here. Marlon Humphrey really came into his own in 2018 and goes into 2019 as a potential elite option. Jimmy Smith has had an excellent career – even accounting for all those penalties for his physical play. Tavon Young is a versatile player from the slot and Brandon Carr a very good backup and dime corner. Not to mention Anthony Averett, who has some serious talent too.
Humphrey is the best option as an IDP and should be your first choice from this team.
Safety
The Ravens have recently used a lot of two-deep coverages but with Earl Thomas on board, we can expect that to change. Thomas had issues later in his Seattle career but he’s still only just 30 and an utterly wonderful player who changes what his defense can afford to do. He’ll play his usual single-high role which will free Tony Jefferson to make plays further up the field. He showed how productive he can be in that sort of system back in 2016 as a Cardinal and he could be looking at a bounce-back season.
Stud – Top inside LB
If one of the three options can seize Mosley’s old job, you can expect top-15 production. Remember when Zach Orr went absolutely crazy for the Ravens in 2016? That’s within range for Chris Board (or whoever else gets the top job).
Disappointment – Earl Thomas, S
Thomas is a great player but has never been a good IDP. He’s really only had two years with enough tackles to be a good option for you and the last of those was back in 2014. You can do better.
Darkhorse – Tony Jefferson, S
With the likely change in safety schemes, Tony Jefferson is a screaming value. These numbers almost certainly have him pegged too low and he has top-12 upside.
Summary
This team may not be stacked with talent but there’s enough here – even if they’re not big names outside of Earl Thomas. The secondary and line are both pretty spectacular and if there’s any team you trust to get LBs and edge rushers playing well it’s Baltimore. Look out for big things from this defense.
Thanks for reading.
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