2019 IDP Projections: Los Angeles Rams

Tom Kislingbury

As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.

You’ve got to feel for the Rams, don’t you? After a magical 2018 where everything suddenly went perfectly for the team they just crumbled in the Super Bowl as they came up against a much wilier Patriots team. The irony of such a modern team losing to a game plan that relied on establishing the run was almost too much to bear.

Nonetheless the Rams were a breath of fresh air last season, and their 54-51 victory over the Chiefs deserves another view. Breath-taking stuff.

Regardless of Sean McVay’s offense (for which Jay Gruden never gets any credit at all) the unit that needs improving is the defense. Not that it was bad last season (Wade Phillips did an excellent job as always), but it wasn’t good enough at the end and that’s what needs fixing.

Defensive interior

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Currently it seems like Aaron Donald is likely to be switched to a DT so all the linemen have simply been put next to each other for ease of comparison.

If Donald does become a defensive tackle, then his value goes back to stratospheric, whereas as a defensive end it’s simply elite. It’s not realistic to expect a repeat of last season when he managed over 100 pressures and 20 sacks, but he can fall way back from that and still be a top IDP for you.

The rest of the linemen are somewhat disappointing in comparison. Relying on any of them as IDP starters is probably over-optimistic.

Inside linebacker

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Cory Littleton has plenty of IDP owners all in a tizzy with excitement, but it has to be noted he is really a rather average player. He piled up tackles at a fantastic rate, but was poor in coverage (remember: coverage ability leads to playing time and production) as he gave up over 700 yards receiving. We don’t really care in the IDP world and he seems secure enough in his job anyway, but Littleton is more a productive player than a good one at this stage of his career.

At the time of writing the number two inside linebacker is Micah Kiser. He played precisely one snap on defense as a rookie, but the fifth-round pick looks to be a starter right now. In this scheme it seems a big ask to expect massive production, so although he is worth owning in deep leagues, he’s very likely just back-up depth.

Outside linebacker

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Dante Fowler goes into his first full season as a Ram with a huge need to prove himself. Ever since being drafted third overall, it’s been a roller coaster for him. He was injured on his first day as a Jaguar then disappointing in 2016, then a role-player on a fantastic defense in 2017, then involved in the infamous London bouncer scuffle which ended in a night in the cells, then traded away to a team that went all the way to the Super Bowl.

Fowler goes into this season as the top edge player on the team and with high expectations. Unfortunately, he’s never quite lived up to those as a pro. He managed double digit sacks in 2017, but that was mostly clean-up duty playing with Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. It is very much possible to luck your way into that many sacks – ask Kyler Fackrell. It’s not that Fowler is a bad pass rusher – he’s just average with a massive reputation.

On the other side is Clay Matthews, who has lost his reputation almost entirely. Unfortunately, that seems justified as he was entirely forgettable in 2018. Maybe he can recapture some of that old magic in 2019 back in Los Angeles where he went to college, but it’s a long shot.

Cornerback

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A year ago, this was a dream unit, but Marcus Peters was badly exposed in his first season as a Ram. In his first two seasons he got his hands to the ball 45 times (passes defended and interceptions), but 2018 saw just 11 of them. Maybe it was simply culture shock, but he needs to show big improvements in 2019. Having said that, volume is king, and Peters has played 4,372 snaps in four years as a pro. That’s amazingly high.

Aqib Talib is at the other end of the spectrum. He goes into his twelfth year (where did that go?!) still at an elite level. He has just nine punts downed and two interceptions over the past two seasons combined, but as a cover corner he’s never been productive stats-wise.

Nickell Robey-Coleman (nominative determinism FTW) remans the slot defensive back. He’s an OK player but not likely to produce for you.

Troy Hill and David Long offer excellent depth at the position and may well become relevant at some point this year.

Safety

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John Johnson has a lot of fans in the IDP world, but he’s scary. Not because he isn’t good, but because of scheme and other players. Coach Phillips does not have a history of productive safeties because he tends to favour split options. That changed last year with Johnson playing in the box and Lamarcus Joyner playing deep.

Maybe that happens again but Eric Weddle is nothing if not versatile (he played some running back in college as well as throwing a few passes and even punting on occasion). Coach Phillips is smart and understands that being unpredictable helps his team. With more versatile players on board, maybe we’ll see less of a stark strong safety/free safety split. Johnson has a wide range. He could easily finish as a mid-level S1 – but also be down nowhere in the useful ranks. Safety has a very high seasonal variance and the one thing we know is that some players near the top of last year’s rankings will fall far away in 2019.

Stud – Aaron Donald, D-line

Last year was very likely the best season Donald will ever have. It’s certainly one of the more astonishing this century. Not being able to do that again is in no way a death-knell. He remains the best defensive player in the NFL until proven otherwise.

Disappointment – Cory Littleton, LB

His 2018 was great. Coach Phillips’ linebackers (as well as his safeties), however, have a poor history of production, so Littleton is a risky player this year.

He could be useful again, but it’s in no way guaranteed and he could easily fade away.

Darkhorse – Marcus Peters, CB

This seems a weird designation for Peters given his reputation and early success, but he has now had two poor seasons in a row. Getting back to IDP relevance seems more of a surprise than an assumption.

Summary

Other than Donald, this defense feels like it offers more questions than answers. The coaching is likely to be excellent and the secondary is potentially elite, but the pass rush seems weak and the linebackers unproven to say the least.

It’s hard to stay at an elite level in the NFL and it seems the Rams may crash back down to Earth a little after their nearly perfect 2018.

Thanks for reading.

tom kislingbury