2019 IDP Projections: Seattle Seahawks
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
In 2018, lots of people (including this analyst) were pessimistic about the Seahawks. The view was that they just didn’t have the talent after losing so many key defensive pieces from the glory, ‘Legion of Boom’ years.
We were wrong.
Pete Carroll proved why he’s one of the best defensive coaches (or any type of coach) in the NFL with a masterful coaching display that turned the team into contenders regardless of the actual players.
The defensive scheme is so instilled and drilled and in-synch with recruiting in Seattle that year after year we know they will put out a solid unit.
Defensive tackle
Reed is an interesting player. He’s not really a classic penetrating interior player but last year he managed double-digit sacks, and they were legitimate. He created 50 pressures which is extremely impressive. It’s not very likely he hits those heights again though, so this is a good time to sell him if you can get a good offer. Reed’s 776 snaps in 2018 were the most of any interior Seahawk in the past five seasons and his pressure was a huge anomaly compared to his previous production.
Poona Ford gets a lot of love from the football universe but he’s much more of a run-stuffer. He created just eight pressures last season. He might be useful in tackle-heavy leagues but with Earl Mitchell also around there might be enough snaps to fuel that.
Defensive end
This is a slightly messy unit right now, but we’ll see more clarity shortly. Basically, we need to keep the scheme in mind to get a decent read on it.
The more famous role is the Leo position. It’s split out wide (often in seven-to-nine technique) and the more dedicated pass-rushing role on this defense. The faster, bendier players tend to play Leo for the Seahawks. Ziggy Ansah and Cassius Marsh are going to compete for the spot. Whether Ansah can play decent volume is the key question here. Remember, he’s never played 700 snaps in a season before and he’s managed only 1,158 snaps in total since 2015. Cassius Marsh was horrible as a Patriot but has always done OK in Seattle.
The other DE spot is the Otto role which has more gap responsibility. These guys are much closer to being interior players than Leos and tend to be bigger, stronger, tougher and less athletic. Michael Bennett played the role when he was a Seahawk. This season, rookie L.J. Collier will battle for snaps with Naz Jones who has switched position from tackle – this isn’t a big change for this role.
Linebacker
Bobby Wagner has signed a new contract and is in place for the foreseeable future with K.J. Wright also being retained after being a free agent. This seems like a settled situation, but the Seahawks did draft two new linebackers in Cody Barton (who has allegedly had a great camp) and Ben Burr-Kiven.
Both were fine, mobile players in college and show the Seahawks are still staying true to their mantra about competition for every place. Don’t be surprised if Wright does not make it through the season as an unquestioned starter.
Cornerback
Pete Carroll is a great coach in general, but his true excellence is defensive backs. The man is a wizard.
Shaquill Griffin and Tre Flowers are not the most talented pair of corners in the league, but they were perfectly OK last season as starters. Both are decent dart-throws as IDPs.
In the slot, it seems that rookie Ugo Amadi is leading the race right now, but this is far from settled. This is not likely to be a productive IDP role so you can safely ignore it.
Safety
There was some uncertainty here in the off-season – especially with the Seahawks drafting Marquise Blair in the second round (he was the third safety selected).
However, Tedric Thompon seems all but confirmed as starting again at free safety which means Bradley McDougald should at least start the season at strong safety. Blair is probably his closest competitor for the spot, but we’ve seen the Seahawks use high draft picks sparingly beforehand (Rashaad Penny anyone?) and McDougald is a very good player.
Stud – Bobby Wagner, LB
He was only mentioned briefly above because what else is there to say about Wagner? He’s phenomenal. He doesn’t miss tackles, he’s exceptional in coverage, he’s reliable, he has great range. It’s hard to stand out as an LB in today’s game but Wagner does it.
Disappointment – Shaquem Griffen, LB
Griffen is an amazing story and it’s brilliant he’s even in the NFL but it seems he’s going to be a career special teamer. That shouldn’t really need a “but” because it’s an amazing achievement for a man with such a disadvantage. Griffen is an inspiration but simply not a feasible IDP option.
Darkhorse – Ziggy Ansah, DE
This team is going to provide pass rush. The coaching is too good not to. It’s just likely to be spread around a bit. If you had to bet on one player, then Ansah is the obvious example. He’s done it before, and he remains a fine player at his best. The problem is just that he’s not reliable. He has never shown he can play high volumes. Some of that is due to injury – but being injury prone is part of the problem.
Summary
There’s a little mystery here. We can be reasonably sure the Seahawks will have a good, productive defense. But we also have to have some faith. Particularly when it comes to pass rush and the cornerbacks. That feels uncomfortable when so much of defensive production can be measured and analyzed but betting against Pete Carroll and his staff is simply not a smart proposition.
Thanks for reading.
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