2019 IDP Projections: Denver Broncos
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
It has been a good few years since the Broncos won a Super Bowl on the back of an awesome defense, and most of the personnel from that team have moved on. Such is life in today’s NFL.
Going into 2019, confidence in the defense is very high though. There are two stud pass rushers in place (although Von Miller’s contract is a millstone) and they still have one of the better corners in the league after it sort of looked like he might leave in the off-season.
And Vic Fangio is in place as head coach. He’s finally got his chance after years of good coaching. He’s had some bad seasons too but he should be able to improve the Broncos on that side of the ball after a couple of disappointing seasons.
Defensive tackle
Shelby Harris looks like the starting nose tackle but realistically both of these guys will play. Don’t expect elite production from either of them.
Defensive end
The DEs are much better. Derek Wolfe is a good player (although his magical 2015 looks increasingly like an anomaly) and Adam Gotsis is good enough to be a rotation player. Dre’Mont Jones is fairly exciting after being very productive in college and DeMarcus Walker was a hot prospect a year ago. Wolfe is likely the only 2019 IDP here but Jones is a dynasty stash.
Inside linebacker
This is a position group in dire need of an upgrade. Todd Davis has his supporters, but he’s limited too. He’s nobody’s idea of a mobile, modern LB. Unfortunately, Josey Jewell is even more so. He’s good at what he does but playing in space and moving fast is not that.
These two do not fit what Fangio has shown he wants at the LB spot so expect changes sooner or later. In the meantime, both of them are likely LB3/4 types with some decent weeks thrown in.
One of the other players on the team is going to get a chance sooner rather than later though. Jones is a special teamer but may get the chance to show what he’s got. We don’t know much about Johnson (although allegedly he’s the top backup so far in camp) and Joe Dineen is an interesting UDFA. Keep an eye on these guys.
Outside linebacker
Von Miller is one of the best players in the NFL. But it’s silly that he counts more against the cap than all but six other players. Expect another top year but sooner or later the Broncos will have to do something about his money. Paying a pass rusher that sort of cash going into his 30s isn’t a great recipe.
Bradley Chubb had a fantastic rookie season in terms of pressure and sacks, but he still has some rough edges. He missed 11 tackles for a start last year. Expect a little bit of regression in terms of sacks.
Cornerback
Chris Harris remains brilliant. Both in ability and usage. He should be due for another excellent season.
Behind him is less clear. Bryce Callahan is a slot corner and really only plays limited snaps given what Chris Harris can do.
Isaac Yiadom looks set to start at the other outside role. It’s a big step up for him after he was very average last year.
Safety
Justin Simmons is going to be one starter. He’s a solid but not spectacular player. He should provide S2 value but that’s very replaceable.
Kareem Jackson should start at the other spot. He wanted to transition to safety in Houston but had to move back to corner when their injury crisis hit home in 2018. Expect him to play deep a lot.
Will Parks and Su’a Cravens are both strong safety/nickel LB types. Given the weak (or at least immobile) LB situation in front of them, these two also have a chance to secure snaps playing closer to the ball. Both are very high upside dart throws.
Stud – Von Miller, OLB
Miller remains awesome. He has a box of pass-rushing moves, an elite get-off, awesome bend, and a better bull-rush than you think. He’s the best OLB in the game.
Disappointment – Kareem Jackson, S
Last year he piled up tackles as a put-upon corner for the Texans. That’s not going to happen again. This is a very different role.
Darkhorse – Coverage LB
Whoever gets the opportunity (assuming Jewell and Davis disappoint) is going to have value. Keep watching to work out who it will be.
Summary
This is a solid team but has some serious weak spots – inside LB and number two corner in particular. They shouldn’t be a disaster because Fangio knows what he’s doing but don’t expect an elite unit either.
Thanks for reading.
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