2019 IDP Projections: Oakland Raiders
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
Here’s a little stat to tell you how bad the Raiders were under Jon Gruden in 2018. The Lions finished 31st in total pressures with 229. The Raiders finished 32nd with just 146.
The Raiders were so bad rushing the passer that fully ten different teams had more than twice as much pressure as they did. In fact, from 2009 onwards only one other team (the 2-14, 2012 Chiefs) created as little pressure.
The debate over coverage versus pass rush has been raging all summer long but whatever your views on that, getting to the quarterback is a key part of defense and the Raiders were laughably bad at it in 2018. They did invest in a pass rusher early in the draft but it’s hard to see them closing the gap between how awful they were and being anywhere resembling average.
Defensive tackle
Maurice Hurst was a great prospect at tackle a year ago – at least until the news of his heart defect emerged and he slipped in the draft. It’s worth noting that P.J. Hall was drafted earlier, played more and created more pressure than Hurst did.
No matter how much we armchair fans like a player, it’s the coaches that matter and they seem to prefer Hall which means the numbers above may look very silly when the season is in the books.
Jonathan Hankins and Justin Ellis will compete for the right to play nose tackle on this defense which frankly isn’t likely to be very productive.
Defensive end
- The Raiders were historically bad at creating pressure.
- DE is the top pass-rushing position in this defense.
- The Raiders invested the fourth overall pick in a DE.
- Everyone hated the pick.
Clelin Ferrell might not be everyone’s cup of tea but it’s hard to fault their logic at least.
The only issue is them investing the other first-round picks into non-premium positions (running back and safety) instead of going after more pass rush help.
Ferrell is likely to walk into a high snap count as a rookie because the team is clearly invested in him and there is very, very little competition. According to the first depth chart, Arden Key (last year’s “best” edge player” is backing him up with serial failure Josh Mauro on the other side.
Just to recap, the Raiders were 83 pressures behind the next-worst team. Key led the team with just 31 last year. Even if Ferrell instantly plays like J.J. Watt (74 pressures last year) the Raiders will need significant help across the whole team to not still be the worst pass-rushing team in the NFL.
Linebacker
After the signing of Derrick Johnson in 2018 (152 snaps of replacement-level play) Coach Gruden decided more veteran LBs would be a good idea and signed Brandon Marshall (30 years old and has missed ten games over the past three seasons) and Vontaze Burfict (has averaged 450 snaps from 2014 onwards) to go with Tahir Whitehead. What could go wrong?
It would be lovely to say something nice here but it’s really hard. Marshall, Burfict and Whitehead have all been bad options over recent seasons. Their combined PFF grade over the last three years is 63.6. Over the past two years, it drops to 60.7. 60 is average.
Looking at just coverage grades (coverage creates production for LBs in the modern game), they grade out at 58.5 over the past three years and just 54.7 over the past two. In 2018, it was just 54.7. The three players combined allowed a QB rating when thrown against of over 120 last season. For context, Patrick Mahomes managed a rating of 113.7 in his amazing 2018.
The Raiders starting linebackers make every QB look better than Mahomes did when winning his MVP award.
Now it’s certainly possible that one of these players plays enough to pile up counting stats but given they’re all likely to be liabilities, it’s a little tough to see. There will be production here and you can use these players as your third or fourth LB in any given week but expecting more than that is pure optimism.
Cornerback
Gareon Conley was a fine prospect when he was drafted but he’s only produced average play so far after an injury-hit rookie season. He did manage ten PDs in 2018 which is an excellent figure and brings a little hope he can improve in 2019.
Daryl Worley is a league-average player and has no business being a starter on a defense which will likely not create much pressure.
Expect both of these players to be picked apart which may lead to tackle opportunities with Conley, in particular, being able to make some plays on the ball. There is IDP potential here even if it’s yet another area of weakness on this defense.
Safety
Jonathan Abram was selected in the first round. He’s a fine player at what he does but box safety is really not a premium position in today’s NFL. Playing behind such a weak LB unit could help him though and he’s definitely interesting. His ADP in rookie drafts was way too high (as it mostly is for big-name safeties) but he could end up being startable.
Lamarcus Joyner is more naturally a deep safety (being a converted cornerback) and is likely to play deep as well as in the slot. Even that would be a bit more creative than coordinator Paul Guenther has shown with the position through his career but hope springs eternal.
Lastly, poor Karl Joseph has had a rollercoaster career (as another example of why first-round safeties are risky investments). He’s currently atop the depth chart which is interesting but it’s likely only a matter of time until Abram passes him. Expect average production and play when he’s on the field.
Stud – Clelin Ferrell, DE
It’s not likely to be enough but he’s a good start and the team clearly have faith in him. Ferrell could succeed as an individual purely on playing time.
Disappointment – Tahir Whitehead, LB
Pretty much anyone on the team could be placed here but Tahir Whitehead has been productive (through volume) in recent years and has fooled many IDP owners into thinking he’s an OK player. This is not the case and he should prove it in 2019.
Darkhorse – Jonathan Abram, S
Selecting a strong safety in the first round is often a poor idea. It’s surprising the Raiders don’t know that with Karl Joseph on the roster.
It’s possible Abrams turns into the next Keanu Neal but there’s next to no chance he’s the next Derwin James. He doesn’t have anything like the skillset required. The most we can hope for here is plenty of tackles piled up. The good news is there is a distinct possibility of that happening.
Summary
Sorry for the doom and gloom here but it is terrifying how poor this defense could be a year after being utterly abject. The team desperately needed an injection of quality and although Ferrell and Abram are interesting it’s not likely to be nearly enough.
The most likely story remains that of a curse. Al Davis offended the Football Gods with his rage and rebelliousness, causing the Raiders to be cursed to awfulness. After a few years, the Football Gods realized Raiders fans were no longer suffering because they’d become so used to losing. So, they were granted a fine 2016 season to give them hope again before whipping away any possibility of success with ten years of Jon Gruden.
Thanks for reading.
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