Duke of Hazard: The Dynasty Fallout of the Duke Johnson Trade

Ken Kelly

The Browns and running back Duke Johnson have not exactly being seeing eye-to-eye over the past few months, with Johnson ultimately requesting a trade. Cleveland had been resistant to acquiesce to his demands, knowing full well they had little behind Nick Chubb with Kareem Hunt out for half the season serving a suspension.  However, that all changed this morning when Johnson was granted his wish and jettisoned to Houston in exchange for a conditional fourth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft that could become a third-rounder based on Johnson’s performance.  The trade is a curious one, if only because of the timing. However, having someone disgruntled in the locker room is never great for team unity and the Browns find themselves in unfamiliar territory as a team with a chance to actually win this season.

Let’s take a quick look at the dynasty players affected by this trade.

Duke Johnson, RB HOU

Johnson has proven to be a valuable pass catcher out of the backfield en route to amassing 235 catches over his first four seasons, good for 2,170 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. In the process, he’s become a valuable player in a lot of PPR leagues. Unfortunately, Johnson has only carried the ball 299 times in his career and while his 4.3 yards per carry average is admirable, he’s become more of a third down and passing game specialist instead of a three-down option.

In Houston, Johnson has a legitimate shot to be a better player in both reality and fantasy. Lamar Miller has simply not been the player the Texans had hoped he’d be when they signed him and while Miller should handle early downs and goal line work, with Johnson taking the passing back role, it’s fair to wonder if the Texans won’t want to see what Johnson could do with a few more carries if Miller continues to be pedestrian, especially now that D’Onta Foreman is in Indianapolis.  In reality, this trade should be positive for Johnson’s dynasty value – just don’t go wild thinking you have the new Houston starter.

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Lamar Miller, RB HOU

Miller has seen his carries drop in each of his three years in Houston. In fact, he has only posted a total of 2,934 yards in his 44 games in a Houston uniform, good for an average of only 67 yards per game.  While his yards per carry average last year was 4.6, that was also inflated by one 97-yard run that accounted for right around 10% of his yards for the season.  Miller has also hit paydirt only 13 times on the ground the past three years, far from what the Texans would have hoped for.

While Johnson isn’t a prototypical three-down back, his addition is bound to take away a big chunk of Miller’s receptions. In short, the 31 catches he’s averaged the past three years are in real danger.  After the Texans dumped D’Onta Foreman earlier this week, it really looked like Miller had a chance to be a more formidable fantasy option this year – he now looks like a pretty low-end RB2 or flex option.

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Damarea Crockett, Buddy Howell, Karan Higdon, Taiwan Jones, Josh Ferguson, RBs HOU

Savvy dynasty owners were salivating at the Houston depth chart, hoping one of these running backs would emerge and become the backup to Miller and have some real dynasty value off the waiver wire. Unfortunately, this throws some cold water on that idea.  Crockett has been the most impressive and could emerge as the early down backup, but you’re really throwing some darts now.  The preseason will be key for any of these players to carve out any sort of value in dynasty leagues.

Nick Chubb, RB CLE

Well, it’s clear Chubb is going to get all he can handle for the first half of the season until Hunt returns from his suspension. This trade boosts his immediate value, but doesn’t really affect his long-term ADP.  Chubb is going to be a workhorse at the beginning of the season and it’s going to be very interesting to see just what happens when Hunt returns. Dynasty owners have to be hoping Hunt comes back, looks good, then signs elsewhere next off-season, leaving Chubb as a rare three-down dynasty workhorse.

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Kareem Hunt, RB CLE

The Browns are obviously all-in with Hunt. With the pass catching Johnson now in the Lone Star State, the path is there for meaningful touches for Hunt after he serves his eight game suspension. I’d expect some type of 60/40 split at best, with Chubb taking the “60” when the time comes, but nobody really knows for sure.  What we can be sure of is Hunt getting a real chance to prove himself, though much of that is going to be off the field as we all know how talented he is.  His owners are likely hoping for the same thing Chubb’s are – a solid second half that follows with Hunt signing on to be another team’s RB1 this off-season, though it is important to note he’ll be a restricted free agent, not an unrestricted one.

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Dontrell Hilliard, Trayone Gray, D’Ernest Johnson, RBs CLE

It’s now quite possible one of these Cleveland running backs ends up having some short-term value and possibly more with a strong preseason. The Browns preseason games were already interesting from a dynasty perspective, but this is at least moderately intriguing.

Off we go to preseason week one!

ken kelly