2019 Summer Sleeper: Carolina Panthers
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
I’m taking it easy on myself with this one. Sure, Carolina has a number of great prospects, but everyone knows about them. The only players falling late in DLF ADP as of July are Greg Olsen (209) and Ian Thomas (163). Curtis Samuel is so “on the radar” that he has risen in ADP 13.7 spots to 93.5. On top of that, no one is falling for any possible “bust” narrative for first-round pick DJ Moore who has also risen in ADP to 36.7. All of those players represent good value and I’m interested in them this season.
But no one is sleeping on any of them.
Instead, I thought I’d make the case for someone who doesn’t make the definition for “sleeper” but still looks like one of the best potential value adds at his position.
Cam Newton, QB
Category: Sleeper
So, why Cam Newton? He has been a top-five quarterback in every year he has played 16 games since entering the NFL.
In fact, of the quarterbacks active in 2018, he ranks fourth in the number of top-five seasons scored and is the only one with five or more top-five seasons under the age of 35.
A quarterback who can score fantasy points in multiple ways (rushing and passing) has extra value because they are more consistent and have a higher floor most weeks.
So, Newton is one of the most likely quarterbacks to finish in the top five any given year, has a safer floor and is younger than any other QB who has his level of production in the NFL.
Why not buy Cam Newton?
He’s being drafted as the QB10 right now behind Carson Wentz (QB8 following two straight years of his own injuries) and Russell Wilson (the same age with plenty of exposure to injury in the running game). Both Wentz and Wilson have other things in their favor, from age to expectation and type of injury. But their history of production gives Newton the edge in expectation over the next few years in overall fantasy points.
If you’re trying to win in the next few years, Newton is the player to roster.
Now I’m not trying to ignore that he clearly struggled last year and has said himself that he had trouble with arm strength in 2018.
But he also seemed very confident he was going to be able to bounce back. Why believe him? Well, if we believe him about the injury, I think we should believe him about how he’s feeling about the future. That’s the problem with news stories: they can mislead as easily as they can help.
Is Cam Newton injured? Probably, he’s a football player. Is his a career over? No. Neither was Andrew Luck’s in 2018 which was a much more concerning situation. But in the end, Newton’s value has dropped, he has a better than even chance of finishing in the top five, and his ADP is too low if he does.
The quarterback position barely matters in most fantasy football formats. Even if a player’s career stalls or ends, it’s not a huge loss. On the other hand, a player with top-five upside matters as much as a quarterback can matter. Right now, people are fear drafting Cam Newton. Don’t be afraid. Championships aren’t won by never taking a risk and this is a small one that could help.
That’s where the value is in Carolina.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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