2019 IDP Projections: Atlanta Falcons

Tom Kislingbury

As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.

The Falcons suffered two crippling defensive injuries right at the start of 2018 and it threw their whole season off track. Replacing a player like Deion Jones is virtually impossible and Keanu Neal was not that far behind.

Hopefully, those two in particular will stay healthy this year and we can see Dan Quinn work his magic again.

Defensive tackle

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Grady Jarrett has signed a giant new contract and he’s kind of worth it. Undoubtedly, he’s an extremely disruptive player but he’s never been able to turn that pressure into sacks reliably (bar the Super Bowl against the Patriots).

In four years, he’s managed 135 pressures but just 15 sacks (8.6%). In just three years, DeForest Buckner has managed 17 sacks from 105 pressures (9.9%). Jarrett is a good player but needs to be more efficient to be a top IDP.

Tyeler Davison and Deadrin Senat will fight it out to play nose tackle and are probably off your radar.

Defensive end

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The Falcons had a very deep rotation at the position in 2018 which frustrated those of us banking on individual production. Here’s a look at how it played out:

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With five different ends playing significant snaps each week, it was pretty unproductive for everyone involved.

Takkarist McKinley seems to be the favorite of many IDP owners and he’s a good case study. He managed eight sacks (counting half sacks as full ones) from 50 pressures for a 12.2% efficiency rate. He was about 20th among DEs in both total pressure and pressure rate (only including players with more than 20 pressures to rule out anomalies). That is low-end DE2 production.

The problem is that his pressure was unpredictable. In weeks one and two, he managed a sack in each week from three pressures – great numbers. Then he missed week three. He managed three sacks from four pressures in week four (absurdly good), then just three sacks from 40 pressures for the rest of the season, including a seven-game stretch with no sacks at all. This is a direct result of the playing time you can see above. He just wasn’t on the field enough to be reliable and you absolutely should not have been starting him after September. That lack of playing time also severely hampered his tackle production which is why he’s down as the DE34 here even with nine sacks.

We might see less of a rotation in 2019 but until that happens on the field, all of these players are scary IDP prospects.

Linebacker

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Deion Jones, of course, comes straight back to the top of the unit here. He should be 100% healthy and as good as ever. He’s one of the more valuable LBs in IDP.

Behind him, De’Vondre Campbell has the edge as the number two above Foye Oluokun. Oluokun garnered a lot of praise last year because he piled up a lot of tackles with an astoundingly high tackle efficiency. That is not a sticky stat though and will regress in 2019. Meanwhile, the team have consistently preferred Campbell when Deion Jones has been fit. This is an example of that weird phenomenon where fantasy owners have an exceptional love for players they obtained for free. Given the same production, a young player signed from waivers makes his owner much happier than one drafted in the second round. I have no real idea why but it’s true.

Regardless, both will likely end up on the field and be useful at varying times. Oluokun is probably a trade candidate given how much people like him though and the fact that he’s third in line (according to how the team have used them before as well as their most recent depth chart).

Cornerback

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With Robert Alford departed, Marcus Trufant is the undisputed top corner here and should be walking into a year of heavy use. He’s not an elite player but he’s solidly above average and should be a decent IDP option. Isaiah Oliver should start the season opposite him. He’s unproven but he has the talent and there’s not much behind him.

Damontae Kazee is scheduled to play in the slot this year. He got a lot of love last year in the IDP world considering he was playing free safety. His production profile should look very different this year and he holds little to no value.

Safety

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Keanu Neal, of course, is the headliner here and deserves all the hype. He’s a dedicated strong safety in an era where safeties are becoming more versatile and varied. It will be relatively surprising if he’s not an elite safety.

Ricardo Allen should walk back into his free safety role after also being hurt in 2018. He is a poor IDP because of his usage. Lining up deep does not create enough personal statistics to make players relevant at FS unless they’re playing an awful lot of snaps. Allen played over 1,100 snaps back in 2016 when he had a very good season, so some people think of him with rose-tinted, ill-advised glasses on.

Stud – Deion Jones, LB

Most sets of data tend to S-shaped or bell curves (which are really the same thing) – a big set of undifferentiated data-points in the middle with few outliers at the very top and bottom.

This is the case for LBs in IDP but Deion Jones is very much one of the few players who stand out at the very top.

Disappointment – Takk McKinley, DE

McKinley is going to struggle to play a lot of snaps. He’s also been a fairly average player since he entered the league with a very poor tackle rate (he has 30 career solo tackles in 31 regular-season games).

His cool name, draft pedigree, and dreads give him a reputation he wouldn’t have otherwise.

Darkhorse – Grady Jarrett, DT

Jarrett needs to step up and turn excellent play into sacks, but he certainly could make that leap this year and enter the elite tier of productive pass-rushing tackles.

Summary

Any defense where you have a choice of picks for Stud is a good one. If they can avoid catastrophic injuries again, this defense has the potential to leap up from bottom eight to knocking on the door of the top ten.

Thanks for reading.

tom kislingbury