2019 IDP Projections: Jacksonville Jaguars
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
A year ago, this column focused on likely regression. 2017 saw everything go right for the Jaguars defensively, 2018 was bound to see something go wrong. That played out. There were more injuries, not everyone was as good, and the poor offense put more pressure on the defense.
This year, we see an entirely different situation. Telvin Smith has decided not to play in 2019 but there’s just as much defensive talent on the team with the addition of a potential star in Josh Allen. With Blake Bortles gone and Nick Foles in place at quarterback, we might see some offensive improvements which will have a knock-on effect.
Before we dive in by position, it’s worth talking about the defensive line. By selecting a defensive end early in the draft with two excellent edge players under contract, the Jags have created a tension point. Plenty of people will tell you Calais Campbell is going to play more inside – probably because he’s a big guy and he has experience of playing interior in Arizona. This is likely false. The Jags have shown very little desire to use Campbell inside and he fits the “big end” role in this defense perfectly. It’s much more likely 2018 first-round pick Taven Bryan plays more inside – and the team have already said they’ll be doing this.
Similarly, Josh Allen has confused people. He showed he can play in space in college and he was announced as a linebacker when drafted. So, some have figured he might be an LB at the next level. Again, the team have scotched this and he’s going to play end. We’ve already seen there is a very real chance of Yannick Ngakoue not being with the team forever and Allen is his direct replacement if that happens. If not, they have a strong rotation.
Defensive tackle
As a rookie, Taven Bryan spent just a third of his time as an interior player but it seems like he’ll be used more there this year. He should excel as the under tackle in this scheme with his natural athleticism and motor.
Marcell Dareus is a big name for football fans but in reality, has played nose tackle for most of his career. His total of ten sacks from 2015 onwards shows this. He’s a fine player but not really likely to be a useful IDP for you.
Defensive end
Calais Campbell remains guaranteed his role. If Bryan does play more inside, it simply makes Campbell a safer pick. He’s been fantastic since he arrived at the team and should continue in that vein.
On the other edge, things are less clear. Ngakoue wants a new contract and thinks he can force the team to give him all the cash. This seems to ignore the fact he’s one of the weaker DEs in the NFL in the running game. This situation will be a good test to see how much the NFL currently values pure speed rushers who offer very little else.
The projections here assume Ngakoue comes back to the team to play but the team uses both him and Allen significantly. We saw a similar thing with the Jags when Dante Fowler was on the team. Both can be effective but it’s unlikely either manages to play the high snap volume we really want from top IDPs.
Inside linebacker
With Telvin Smith stepping away from the team in somewhat clouded circumstances, there is a giant hole here. Myles Jack is, of course, the top option to pick up some of the slack, but he’s got a history of being a relatively inefficient tackler. He’ll have to prove he can change that to really excel in what is a pretty ideal situation for him.
After Jack, the depth chart is wide open. Rookie Quincy Williams will have the chance the win a job but so will the plethora of average veterans on the roster. IDP owners are trying to work out who “the guy” is right now but this situation smacks of being interchangeable. We’ll likely see more than one player start at various times of the season.
Cornerback
The Jags have a fantastic starting pair of outside corners in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. Both of them are viable options as IDPs. Don’t worry too much about trying to figure out top corners who will or won’t get targeted, just go for volume and playing time. Ramsey has managed 3,073 snaps since he was drafted three seasons ago and Bouye has played plenty in two years as a Jaguar. They’re as sure of playing time as any corner out there.
D.J. Hayden in the slot is the weak link of the group. 2018 was the best year of his career and he was slightly better than average. He’s very much a slot DB so he’s unlikely to play enough to be viable.
Safety
Ronnie Harrison steps into a great position this year. He produced very modestly as a rookie, but he goes into this year with no real competition and behind an unsettled LB situation. Top 12 production is very possible for the 6’3” banger. Even in 2018, he managed a higher tackling efficiency than Malcolm Jenkins, Jessie Bates or Quandre Diggs. With high volume, he should be very effective.
Stud – Calais Campbell, DE
Even as he prepares to turn 33, Campbell shows no signs of abating as one of the better edge players in the league. It’s still amazing to see him out there at 6’7” dwarfing some of the players around him as he dominates on the edge. Start him happily every week.
Disappointment – Yannick Ngakoue, DE
In three seasons as a pro, Ngakoue has never managed to play 770 snaps. 770 snaps would normally be about 18th-most among DEs in any given year. Ngakoue has been relevant based on his excellent efficiency so far, but if he loses playing time (and it’s hard to see that not happening given he’s holding out and the team drafted a potential direct replacement seventh overall), he’ll struggle to produce as a top-24 IDP.
Darkhorse – Ronnie Harrison, S
Barry Church squandered this excellent opportunity in 2018 but that shouldn’t put you off. Things look much rosier for Harrison to excel in this strong safety role. Safety is relatively replaceable but there is the potential for an excellent match of skill-set and role. Elite production is possible.
Summary
Stay glued to camp and preseason here because finding out what is happening on the line and at the second LB spot is going to be crucial. That sort of info can easily be the difference between having a contending IDP roster and just being part of the pack.
Thanks for reading.
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