Wide Receivers Who Are Cheapest on Draft Day

There is a common narrative in dynasty circles that you should wait and buy young wide receivers “later” because they don’t produce early. Intuitively it makes sense –  everyone knows that wide receivers have a three-year development cycle. So you should just ignore them in rookie drafts and trade for them after their second year, right? Right?! Wrong!

I had fallen prey to this evil narrative that makes the rounds year after year after year and noticed that each time I wanted to buy that coveted young wide receiver, he was more difficult to acquire than ever. This led me to do some research on ADP trends for quality wide receivers.

Here is a rundown of the top 24 wide receivers per DLF’s June mock drafts and their career ADP trends.

I used May for ADP histories because the rookies have their landing spots and draft capital but it’s before OTAs and the preseason hype trains that start chugging as a result. It is also early enough to avoid most injury news.

This shows their May ADP of their rookie year followed by each subsequent May ADP.

Without further ado:

• WR1 DeAndre Hopkins, HOU 83-37-15-3-12-2
• WR2 Odell Beckham, CLE 69-2-1-1-1
• WR3 Davante Adams, GB 75-42-118-28-14 (exception to the rule)
• WR4 Michael Thomas, NO 63-10-10
• WR5 JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT 85-27-12
• WR6 Mike Evans, TB 27-6-9-2-9
• WR7 Julio Jones, ATL 48-17-7-5-4-4
• WR8 Amari Cooper, DAL 21-6-7-19
• WR9 Stefon Diggs, MIN 159-60-33-24
• WR10 Keenan Allen, LAC 103-14-33-15-20-13
• WR11 Antonio Brown, OAK Note 1
• WR12 Adam Thielen, MIN Note 1
• WR13 Brandin Cooks, LAR 59-24-16-16-26
• WR14 TY Hilton, IND 211-71-47-23-26-13
• WR15 Kenny Golladay, DET 217-101-35
• WR16 DJ Moore, CAR 59-42
• WR17 AJ Green, CIN 49-10-5-2-9-14
• WR18 N’Keal Harry, NE 43
• WR19 Chris Godwin, TB 125-95-52
• WR20 Calvin Ridley, ATL 66-48
• WR21 Robert Woods, LAR 130-118-200-240-192-72 (exception to the rule)
• WR22 Mike Williams, LAC 41-77-58 (exception to the rule)
• WR23 Cooper Kupp, LAR 156-57-40
• WR24 Sammy Watkins, KC 28-16-8-19-49-43 (exception to the rule)

Note 1: Data not tracked as he wasn’t selected in rookie drafts (safe to say; cheapest on draft day).

In total, four out of the top 24 wide receivers have had legitimate buy-low windows where they were available for less than they were on draft day. Those players were Davante Adams, Robert Woods, Mike Williams, and Sammy Watkins. The rest you should have just drafted.

This reinforces my belief that draft picks are not overrated. If we dig into these players, there are some pretty solid trends that you can use to help guide you in player acquisition.

Trend One – College Production

In particular; age-adjusted production. Almost all of these players had a substantial share of their team’s receiving yards in college, with most having a substantial share in their age-18 or -19 season.

Here is a look at the market share of receiving yards of the top 25 WR’s per DLF ADP.

Lets see if we can learn anything about the current class of rookie’s based on this…

WR1-5 pic.twitter.com/t7LJE6t3cR

— Drew Osinchuk (@DFBeanCounter) June 21, 2019

Lesson: Bet on players with early breakout ages and consistent college production

Trend Two – Ideal Size

All of these players have ideal size with the exception of Ridley who just made the list as the WR20. My main knock on Ridley entering the league was that he is 6’1″ and 189 pounds. There are very few successful WRs that slight.

Lesson: Bet on players who are the ‘right’ size. Remove the ones who don’t fit from your draft board.

Trend Three – Draft Capital

All but three of 24 were drafted in round three or earlier. The exceptions are short but strong college mega producers; Antonio Brown and Stefon Diggs, and undrafted Adam Thielen.

Here are some ideas on how to apply this information:

Inside Top-24 Sells

1) Calvin Ridley, ATL

Ridley does not have NFL size. He had an unsustainable touchdown rate of 15.63% which propped up his fantasy points per game to 12.9 (WR26). If he had a league-average touchdown rate as a rookie, it is quite likely that he would be valued outside of the top 24 wide receivers.

How do we know his TD rate was unsustainable? Nobody has had a touchdown rate that high for an extended period in NFL history and he caught 19 touchdowns on 224 receptions in his college career for a rate of 8.5%.

2) Mike Williams, LAC

Williams only had one dominant season in college, which is very rare for long-term producers in the NFL.

Williams benefited from an even higher touchdown rate than Ridley did, securing 11 touchdowns on 55 receptions. That was good for a 26% touchdown rate. If he had a more modest 10% touchdown rate (still high), he would have only had 5.5 touchdowns. That’s worth 33 fantasy points. 33/16 games = 2.06 fewer fantasy points per game. Williams scored 11.1 fantasy points per game in 2018 (WR40), and if we take off the 2.06 points per game that brings him down to 9.04 points per game. That would put him the WR50-WR60 range.

There is no way a second-year player coming off a season like that is valued in the top 24.

3) Sammy Watkins, KC

Watkins was drafted in 2014 and outside of one season has done a whole lot of nothing. He has been propped up by the potential Tyreek Hill suspension and his pairing with wunderkind Patrick Mahomes. Somehow the universe has given you another sell window. Take advantage if it isn’t too late.

Outside Top-24 Buys

These are players who aren’t in the top 24 but will make it there again or for the first time.

1.) Tyler Lockett, SEA

He is sliding into a plush job as Russell Wilson’s WR1. Lockett was also dominant in college and while he is slightly undersized, a strong season will push him into the top 24.

2.) Corey Davis, TEN

This is mind-boggling. It is rare for a player to enter the NFL and check every box. Corey Davis did this. Then he struggled with injury as a rookie and was held back by the offense in his second year. It should be noted that Davis still accounted for 29% of the Titans’ passing offense. Have a quick peak at what he would have done with the same target share and efficiency on every other offense in the NFL.

If Corey Davis had the same market share and and yards per target on every other team in 2018.

Hilarious. pic.twitter.com/jCzofeQMSP

— Drew Osinchuk (@DFBeanCounter) June 28, 2019

Davis absolutely dominated last year, but unfortunately, he can only eat what’s on the table. Let’s hope the Titans fill the table next season.

3.) Christian Kirk, ARI

I am amazed Kirk is this low in ADP. He had an incredibly productive rookie season, especially considering the state of the Cardinals offense last year. In only 12 games, he recorded 43 receptions for 590 yards and three touchdowns. He was already taking over the WR1 job in the desert last year and will continue that this year in a vastly superior offense headed by number one pick Kyler Murray. Expect Kirk to build on his impressive rookie season.

WRs who averaged 3 rec/game during age 21/22 rookie seasons who only played 12 games or fewer Wheels up on Kirk folks @BraudeM @evansilva @CPatrickNFL pic.twitter.com/QlGZlRjZUI

— Tewbacca (@Tewbacca_) June 21, 2019

It should be noted that Kirk checks the same boxes that the vast majority of the top 24 do in terms of college production, draft capital, and size.

Outside Top-24 Sells

1.) Will Fuller, HOU

He is on the slight side, at 6’0″ and 186 pounds. He has first-round draft capital and substantial college production. Ultimately, his body hasn’t been able to hold up to the rigors of the NFL thus far and that might be in part due to his skinny frame.

2.) Dante Pettis, SF

He lacks college dominance and is in the same mold as Calvin Ridley at 6’1″ and 190 pounds; therefore is too slight. He does have seconnd round NFL draft capital though.

Avoids in rookie drafts

Because of Size

Marquise Brown is the only WR in the top two rounds of rookie ADP who just isn’t big enough. He measures in at 5’9″ and 166 pounds. That is entirely too slight to carry the load for an NFL franchise.

Because of Production

1. DK Metcalf, SEA
2. Deebo Samuel, SF
3. Marquise Brown, BAL
4. Mecole Hardman, KC
5. Parris Campbell, IND

None of these five were ever the focal point of their offense in college. College dominance is a precursor to being the focal point of an NFL offense. Therefore, I have removed them from my draft board and you should too.

Here is a thread showing you all of the rookie market share graphs:

Here is a bit clearer picture of how the rookie wr’s look comparatively.

First Parris Campbell. https://t.co/J4VQL0ALkX

— Drew Osinchuk (@DFBeanCounter) June 24, 2019

Summary

The lesson to be learned here is that you should draft that wide receiver if you think they are special. If you do turn out to be correct, they will never be cheaper than on draft day.