2019 Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears

Peter Howard

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

Adam Shaheen, TE CHI

Category: Deep Sleeper

Adam Shaheen had a strong profile for NFL potential when he was taken in the second round of the 2017 NFL Draft. He is just about to enter his most likely breakout period. As a result, dynasty players are bailing on him. Of course.

Now, there are a few asterisks on Shaheen as a sleeper I’ll get to later. But for now, let’s look at the positive.

He had over 800 receiving yards both of his final two years at Ashland and over ten touchdowns both years as well. Playing at a non-CFB college means his stats are harder to get access to. However, college stats for tight ends tend to be less helpful in identifying breakout players. This is partly because so many of the best players come into the position in college late, and partly the lackluster usage of the position in both the college and NFL level.

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But, we do know a thing or two about NFL tight ends.

For one thing, we know most players break into the top 12 at the position after the age of 24. We also know many dynasty players continue to draft them in the first and second rounds of rookie drafts only to give up on them before they get to that age. Eric Ebron and Austin Hooper were both good examples of this in 2018.

In 2019, Adam Shaheen – who missed last season with a foot strain suffered in the preseason – could be another. If nothing else, we know his value has climbed back down to where it was in September 2017.

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First Asterix: If Shaheen is rostered by the dynasty owner who drafted him, they are probably going to remember all the hype a second-round tight end has (that caused them to draft them in the first place) the minute you send a trade offer. Clever trading techniques like making him a “throw in” or not the focus of the overall trade could help. However, there is also a chance they are, for the first time since drafting him, willing to let him go for the same value they invested. That will mean they held him for you on their roster during the least likely time for him to break out – which wouldn’t be too bad overall?

Second asterisk: He’s still a little outside the ideal breakout zone. He’s 24 years old right now and missed an entire season worth of experience. That’s not great. But if you’re interested in him, be sure to do it knowing you have to hold on to him for at least two years without, maybe, getting anything in return.

Part of the reason Shaheen’s value dropped is that Trey Burton was signed to the team. Burton managed to finish as a top 12 tight end in 2018. Luckily, being a top 12 tight end doesn’t mean much based on the position’s lackluster production recently. That’s lucky for us because it means the Bears may well be happy to move on to their high drafted player if and when he starts to show potential

Something else we know about good fantasy tight ends in the NFL is that they tend to be over 250 lbs and 6-foot-4. Shaheen clears both of those bars. Burton does not.

Based on everything we can say is common between good tight ends for fantasy, Shaheen clears the bar and Burton does not – outside of Evan Engram-like outliers anyway (and Burton is no Engram).

I think it’s a decent bet that Burton just had his best fantasy year in the NFL. That’s not to say you can’t keep rostering Burton, because outliers happen. But it also makes Shaheen a more interesting target.

Is Adam Shaheen a likely breakout tight end in 2019? I’d lean towards no. He’s still inexperienced and only just entering the age range where most breakouts happen. However, if he’s available for a second-round pick, you essentially saved a roster spot for a couple of years. He is no less likely to break out in the NFL than when he was drafted, after all.

peter howard
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