2019 IDP Projections: Indianapolis Colts
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
In this column in 2018, the Colts were hailed as a team who could have vast improvements. To quote: “This defense is genuinely exciting. Last year was a disaster but this team has all the hallmarks of a defense that could drastically improve.”
Lo and behold it occurred and the Colts were one of the stories of 2018. This year another giant leap is not realistic but they remain a good unit with plenty of talent.
Defensive tackle
In 2018, the Colts didn’t really have a nose tackle they trusted so they ran a lot of personnel groups with two under tackles. It worked well and their interior players created a lot of pressure. Expect that to change a little this year with a more balanced group of tackles available. However, it also means we should see less pressure and fewer sacks from these players making them far less attractive as IDPs.
Defensive end
In 2017, the Colts had very little pass rush. Jabaal Sheard was there but the next guys were John Simon and Barkevious Mingo. They got much better in 2018 and this year there’s a positive embarrassment of riches. Unfortunately, this means we’re likely to see some fairly deep rotation of players which limits the effectiveness of each individual.
Justin Houston received a big contract eventually and should be the top pure pass rusher on the team while Sheard probably remains the best all-round edge player. Tyquan Lewis was heavily used when he was fit last season and there’s little reason to believe that changes – although he’s not a high-pressure rusher. He also was used very much on the edge as a rookie. Some people will tell you he’ll play inside but we’ve seen no evidence for that aside from him being quite a big guy.
After Lewis, Kemoko Turay is fighting for playing time. He was very good as a pure rusher in his rookie season, but the worry is whether he can play enough snaps to pile up stats. And last but not least the team drafted Ben Banoglu in the second round this year. He could play some Sam LB but the team has stated they want him to play end.
Linebacker
Darius Leonard had an amazingly productive rookie season but it’s worth noting again that he led all LBs in the NFL in targets. Only seven LBs in the last decade have been targeted more than Leonard was last year. And of the top five most targeted LBs last season, four (80%) were rookies. Targets are very valuable in terms of creating tackle opportunities and Leonard is going to be targeted less. He’s still a fantastic prospect (as his fourth overall ranking denotes) but expecting him to be the clear top LB year after year is simply unrealistic.
Even with Bobby Okereke on board, Anthony Walker should hold down the second LB job for the Colts but he’s unlikely to be as productive as he was last season given his amazing tackle efficiency.
Cornerback
The Colts have been muddled at corner for years now but there are four clear options here. Pierre Desir and Quincy Wilson should play outside with the rookie rock Ya-Sin fighting for playing time and likely to be starting by the end of the season. In the slot, Kenny Moore probably has the inside track but this job is up for grabs. Whichever player plays most outside is likely the best IDP option.
Safety
Strong safety for the Colts is slightly misleading. They play a lot of cover-2 which affects tackle efficiency but it’s still a very productive role much of the time. Clayton Geathers is likely to win the job again over Matthias Farley with Malik Hooker playing the deep safety role. Hooker has plenty of name-value given his draft pedigree but he’s a rank bad IDP option.
Stud – Darius Leonard, LB
Don’t overthink this. He’s a stud and could easily be an LB1 for much of his career. Just because he should expect regression does not mean he’s not brilliant.
Disappointment – Margus Hunt, DT
Hunt played a ton on the edge last season. Unsurprisingly he racked up more pressure than most interior players. He is not to be trusted in 2019.
Darkhorse – Justin Houston, DE
The edge rotation will be a deep one but Houston is still a fantastic pass rusher. Expect plenty of big weeks.
Summary
They might not be quite as good as 2018 – but this is still a defense likely to be worth watching. The sheer array of talent at edge rusher and Darius Leonard are plenty for us to be excited here.
Thanks for reading.
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