Five Rookies Whose ADPs Will Drop By 2020
The start of the 2019 season is just around the corner, and you’re excited about your roster. Nobody knows what to expect, we all just hope for the best and then make adjustments where needed.
Some rookies will improve and their values will start spiking out of control. You hope it’s your guys, and with any luck it will be, but there are some ways you can predict player values will actually plummet. I am going to list five guys who I predict will be worth less in 2020 than they currently are in 2019.
Before I begin to name names, I want to do a little research to find out which types of players have gone down in value. Sure, the ones who tear an ACL or some other catastrophic injury are candidates, but that’s almost impossible to predict and I wouldn’t wish that on anybody.
Below are a few rookies worth mentioning from previous drafts.
For our purpose, I will list rookies whose value changed from their June startup ADP — their immediate value after the NFL rookie draft — to November of the same year. We’ll then analyze the reason their values tanked in an attempt to find any correlation between the players.
- Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN (ADP 23 to 51)
- Kenneth Dixon, RB BAL (ADP 76 to 98)
- Leonte Carroo, WR MIA (ADP 82 to 112)
- OJ Howard, TE TB (ADP 71 to 90)
- Samaje Perine, RB WAS (ADP 71 to 140)
- Jamaal Williams, RB GB (ADP 145 to 187)
- Rashaad Penny, RB SEA (ADP 39 to 57)
- Royce Freeman, RB DEN (ADP 51 to 75)
- Ronald Jones, RB TB (ADP 50 to 94)
One interesting take-away is that the majority of the players mentioned above are running backs. The sample size is perhaps not big enough, but when six of the nine players mentioned all have the same position, it’s worth a mention. There are also no quarterbacks on this list.
Another takeaway is that only OJ Howard seems to have an arrow currently pointing up. The rest are either sell-high candidates or unproven talent. For what it’s worth, I’d sell Ronald Jones in a heartbeat, but we’ll get to that in another article.
The final thing to note is that all of the players above had perceived opportunity prior to the start of the season, but as the season progressed those opportunities went to someone else. Treadwell’s reps went to Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, Dixon lost his job to Javorius Allen and Terrance West, Carroo never cracked the lineup, OJ Howard was outshined by Cameron Brate, etc.
Our mission today is to attempt to pick out which 2019 rookies look to have a similar battle at their position. The best rookies to find will be the ones who have a perceived path towards immediate success, but also have competition at the position in the form of a teammate. And going with the theme above, the majority of players found will probably be at the running back position.
Miles Sanders, RB PHI
This one isn’t really a shock to me. Sanders entered startups 48th overall, and his value has already gone down to 52 in just one month’s time. He will be fighting for carries with Jordan Howard who is also a zone runner running in a zone scheme.
Howard is a much better back than people give him credit for. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see Howard get the bulk of the carries in 2019, pushing Sanders even further down to the list towards season’s end.
I do firmly believe that Howard will not be re-signed by the Eagles, no matter how well he does, because the Eagles will be rewarded with a compensatory draft pick if he were to be signed by someone else next season, and the belief that Sanders can take over the following year.
Sanders will rebound in value once all owners see the writing on the wall for Howard, but that probably won’t happen until late into the 2019 season. I think Sanders will be an excellent buy-low candidate sometime in late October and early November, but his value should still be lower than his current ADP by the start of the next dynasty season.
Darrell Henderson, RB LAR
I’ve been preaching the downside of this player to anyone who will listen. His ADP rose from 87 to 69, simply because of perceived opportunity — does that ring a bell?
Henderson is an undersized RB who fits a niche position in the Rams system that they were lacking last year. They want to reduce the workload on Todd Gurley’s frame and what better way to do that than to draft a pass-catching lightning bolt in Henderson.
I think Henderson will be an excellent flex play on a weekly basis, but nothing more. He’s too small to take over the duties on a weekly basis, and plays too hard to keep his frame fresh from week to week. I’ve made that point in previous articles mentioned here and here.
Gurley’s health will be maintained by the Rams. I would expect another jump in the preseason for Henderson’s ADP, as the Rams will start him every week, giving every owner of his some false hope.
How do I know this? Because the Rams almost never play their starters in preseason games. John Kelly was the number three RB in the NFL preseason for 2018, and then everyone jumped on the John Kelly hype train – whose ADP rose 34 spots. How did that work out?
AJ Brown, WR TEN
This one is a little easier to explain. His ADP is already trending downward, from a 70 to a 76 in just one month. He will be the third or fourth-best pass-catcher behind Corey Davis, Delanie Walker, and perhaps even slot receiver Adam Humphries.
Add in the fact that Marcus Mariota has struggled as the starting quarterback since entering the league, and the statement from head coach Mike Vrabel about giving running back Derrick Henry the ball more often, and that leaves fewer opportunities for anybody else.
I believe in AJ Brown’s ability, and I think he could be a good to great wide receiver for his career, but I think he landed in perhaps the worst situation in the NFL, and that’s going to hold his value down for many years to come — or at least into the 2020 campaign.
TJ Hockenson, TE DET
This is going to be slightly different than the other players mentioned. I think Hockenson is a great player who appeared to have landed in a great situation, but the more I dug into his role in Detroit, the more I started to loathe his value.
Matthew Stafford hasn’t exactly utilized his tight ends over the past several seasons. Eric Ebron, the former TE for the Detroit Lions, seems to have better chemistry with new QB Andrew Luck than he ever did with Stafford. The Lions also went out of their way to sign TE Jesse James, who had some mildly successful seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers and is just now entering his prime age for a tight end.
Throw in the fact that rookie tight ends usually take several years to catch on, and everything now appears to be a little muddled for Hockenson this season. His ADP currently hovers around 92. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have an OJ Howard-like beginning to his career.
Damien Harris, RB NE
Harris’s ADP is already up seven spots to 94th overall thanks to the recent news about Sony Michel starting on the PUP list. Harris will now receive the bulk of the carries in training camp, preseason, and maybe even into the season.
But if there’s one thing we know about New England, it’s that they love to use multiple running backs every week. Michel will get healthy and take most of the work back, and Rex Burkhead and James White will be there too. With too many mouths to feed, Harris’s ADP will fall with is production levels.
Lastly, in my review of Harris several months ago, I found him to be a powerful short-yardage runner, not an every-down back. The Patriots will put him to work the best that they can, but it’s my belief that the highest value Harris has is that of a goal-line short-yardage back and touchdown vulture.
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