2019 Summer Sleeper: New England Patriots

Eric Hardter

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

In the words of John Cena, the champ is here!

The 2018 Patriots reached the promised land once again, relying on a set of familiar faces in the short passing game, along with rookie rusher Sony Michel helping to close things out. To the former, the reliable tandem of Julian Edelman and James White accounted for 231 of the team’s 574 targets (40.2%), helping mitigate decreased effectiveness by future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski and 2017 darling Chris Hogan. For the latter, Michel personified New England’s “keep away” mentality, with 153 of his 209 carries coming when the Patriots either led or were tied.

On the season, Josh McDaniels’ offense had 111 more attempts (on average) than the aggregate of their opponents. Coupled with a defense that bent (21st in total yards against) but didn’t break (seventh in points against), it was the perfect storm for a ball-control offense.

The 2019 off-season has thus far included the retirement of Gronk, the mystery of a potential Josh Gordon reinstatement and the defection of Hogan to the Carolina Panthers, along with the losses of several assistant coaches and key defensive cogs. Brady, of course, remains and will attempt to defeat Father Time for another year, helping the Pats cover their deficiencies by elevating his teammates in tune with the “next man up” mentality. One of these fresh faces and next men up finds himself with a potential pathway to fantasy viability, despite his status as a Super Deep Sleeper.

Matt LaCosse, TE

Category: Super Deep Sleeper

Here’s a fun, albeit obscure and ultimately meaningless combination statistic: since his UDFA contract with the Giants in 2015, LaCosse has had a whopping total of fifteen blurbs on Rotoworld. The man he’s trying to replace in Gronkowski set a career best with seventeen touchdown receptions in a single season back in 2011. So in summation, in a four-year career LaCosse has generated less output on a fantasy-dedicated website than Gronk generated scoring output in a single season!

While little more than trivia at this juncture, it does serve to highlight not only the size of the shoes LaCosse is attempting to fill, but also his inability to function as a fantasy-relevant asset to date. Of course, his most recent Rotoworld blurb is arguably the most important one of his career.

The Boston Herald believes “all signs point to” Matt LaCosse as the Patriots’ starting tight end for week one.

So how did we get to this point?

First, as mentioned above, Gronkowski decided to hang up his cleats and subsequently lose a sizable portion of his body mass. In response the Patriots signed LaCosse, along with fellow positional options Austin Seferian-Jenkins and the previously retired Ben Watson. Within months ASJ decided he needed to take a leave of absence to deal with personal matters and was subsequently released, while Watson was slapped with a four-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy (though given the way his contract was designed, the team seemed to be aware of this ahead of time). As such the Pats are down to the subject of this article, along with a cast of uninspiring journeymen and young players (Stephen Anderson, Ryan Izzo and Andrew Beck).

Anderson may appear to be the most direct competition, though he had a demonstrably inefficient season with the Texans in 2017, which doubles as the last time he saw significant game action. In fact, despite having 17 more targets then than LaCosse had with the Broncos last year, Anderson only had one additional reception, ultimately settling in with a 45% catch rate. He’s also on the smaller side for the position (6’3”, 230 pounds), and could very well settle in with a completely different role than the bigger LaCosse (6’6”, 255 pounds).

Unfortunately, it’s not as if LaCosse offers anything more in proven ability. In fact, prior to his 2018 campaign he only recorded statistics in five games with the Giants, including missing time with hamstring and knee injuries. He efficiently hauled in 65% of his 37 targets last year with Denver (no small feat given the team’s woes at quarterback), but was nevertheless allowed to escape in free agency.

The Patriots quickly snapped him up, but are only paying him $2.8 million over two years, again shining a spotlight on his stature in the league’s hierarchy. If nothing else it’s a step up from Anderson, who was unable to break away from New England’s practice squad last season. Based on money alone, LaCosse seems to have an edge.

Lamentably for the sake of his “sleeperness,” the positives effectively end there. Though athletic for his size (he ran a 4.64 40-yard dash at his pro day), the young tight end doesn’t even have 1,000 total yards to his name when combining both college and the pros. He also only has likely four games to put something together before Watson returns (though at 38, his viability is far from guaranteed).

Mock drafters clearly sense this narrow path to production. According to the July ADP, LaCosse checked in at #273 (out of 275), being selected in only a single draft, three spots from its conclusion. You’re just as likely, if not more so, to drop him come week five than you are to start him in weeks one through four.

But this is the Patriots we’re talking about – they’ve shown an ability to make two tight ends relevant in a single year, though it should be noted said players were above average to legendary (Gronk, Aaron Hernandez, Martellus Bennett). However, outside of Edelman, the team is lacking in proven pass catchers. Given both the overall need, along with the need at the position, LaCosse could fill a void.

In a two-game stretch at the end of 2018, LaCosse managed to corral nine of 14 targets for 76 scoreless yards, with at least four catches in each game. Both games were close through the fourth quarter, so it’s not as if these totals were aided by garbage time. If he can keep that up for a quarter-season, it’s not out of the realm of possibility he holds off Watson and maintains the starting role. And if that happens on one of the league’s best offenses, he should easily be able to outplay his current ADP, along with his status as a Super Deep Sleeper.

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eric hardter