2019 IDP Projections: New York Giants
As per last year, I’ll be sharing projections for every team in the NFL. I use past production in specific roles for each team’s scheme to work out realistic production profiles. You can see how accurate I was in 2018 in my IDP Projection Marking series.
Putting together IDP projections is always a fun but tough task.
The Giants had a pretty weird off-season. They made three first-round picks but didn’t seem to create much excitement about their team. Frankly, the whole organization just seems like it’s in a prolonged tailspin these days.
Defensive tackle
Dexter Lawrence was one of their first-round picks and he’s a good prospect, but taking a nose tackle that high simply doesn’t bring value in NFL or IDP terms.
His fans will talk about how mobile and agile he is for a big man. He is, but so were Danny Shelton and Vita Vea and they were both crammed into playing nose too. Ultimately, Lawrence could be a good player but he’s unlikely to offer IDP value.
Defensive end
Dalvin Tomlinson and B.J. Hill are also both good talents. Tomlinson has been quietly impressive so far and could offer up some decent production in some leagues.
Inside linebacker
Remember when plenty of people thought Alec Ogletree was actually good rather than just a product of lots of snaps and a favorable scheme? That was never true and two pretty dodgy IDP seasons have proved it. He does have a knack for big plays (due to his athleticism, which is admittedly excellent) and therefore produces some good weeks but he’s not a top asset anymore.
The second spot is as up for grabs as it always is for the Giants. Ryan Connelly and B.J. Goodson should duel it out in camp for the right to be in and out of the line-up and never quite delivering on potential.
Outside linebacker
This is actually a decent group of players. Markus Golden was excellent at times in Arizona while Lorenzo Carter and Oshane Ximines both flashed talent as college players. Kareem Martin is strictly depth and is an underwhelming option.
It’s likely that all of these four play in the early season at least. None are likely to be breakout stars (even Golden has enough weaknesses that he’s probably a specialist pass rusher) but watch for one of them to seize a larger share of playing time in-season.
Cornerback
Janoris Jenkins is the high-upside playmaker here. He can make plays on the ball although that’s been rather limited in his time as a Giant and it’s balanced by the fact he regularly misses tackles. He’s averaged double-digit missed tackles per season through his career and can be relied on to fluff about 15-20% of his tackle opportunities. That makes him hard to like as an IDP.
DeAndre Baker is more interesting, and the rookie should be on the field early and often. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to show he can produce.
Safety
Jabrill Peppers is the man who seemingly will be asked to step into Landon Collins’ shoes. That’s a tough ask but Peppers could do very well here and will have his numbers boosted by his return skills.
Antoine Bethea is a tough player to predict. He was excellent in 2018 but admittedly did play over 1,100 snaps. He’s very unlikely to get to that volume again. Predicting any player to hit 1,100 is a losing proposition, let alone one who will be 35. Bethea is a more natural box safety but has shown he can play deep (he played there in 2017). Preseason will tell us a lot more about how Peppers and Bethea will be deployed.
Stud – Jabrill Peppers
This needs things to fall into place and he could easily be stuck playing free safety again but there is definitely the possibility he becomes what we always wanted him to be. And that’s enough right now after his Cleveland nightmare.
Disappointment – Alec Ogletree
If you’re still hoping for a return to his glory days as a Ram, don’t.
Darkhorse – Dalvin Tomlinson
No one talks much about him but he’s really a very good player – against the run in particular. Since he entered the league, he’s fifth in total tackles among interior linemen. And third in assists. In tackle-heavy leagues, he’s an option for you.
Summary
The Giants don’t offer much excitement but there are some hidden gems here. If the pass rush and secondary can play up to their talent, there are the makings of a decent defense here. Let’s hope they can make some much-needed improvements.
Thanks for reading.
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