2019 Summer Sleeper: Green Bay Packers
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
The Green Bay Packers still have one of the best offenses in the league. Even with Aaron Rodgers dealing with a knee injury and an apparent rift between the quarterback, the coach, and some of his skill position players, the team was still 12th overall in offense in 2018 in yards per game. They were top ten in total plays from scrimmage, third in pass attempts, and ninth in total passing yards. With Matt LaFleur, part of the Sean McVay wonderkid coaching tree, taking over for Mike McCarthy, look for the offense to continue to flourish in Titletown.
The Packers are loaded with “Make or Break” sleeper type talents with low Average Draft Position values that fantasy owners can stash on the cheap. With Aaron Rodgers at the helm of the high-volume offense, and no clear cut established wide receiver or tight end opposite Davante Adams catching the ball from him, value can be had. The team focused heavily on wide receiver in the 2018 NFL Draft and snuck in an interesting running back late in 2018.
The Packers did address their defense heavily in the first round of 2019 and early in 2018. Rodgers and the offense might not have to play catch up or be forced to air it out, but this is still an explosive offense and a rejuvenated Rodgers should spark your fantasy team.
Dexter Williams, RB
Category: Sleeper
The running back from Notre Dame has slowly been sneaking up rookie draft boards since being taken with the 194th overall pick in this year’s draft (round six). Williams was stuck behind Josh Adams on the Fighting Irish and didn’t get significant carries until his senior year where, in nine games, he produced 995 rushing yards on 158 carries. His previous season-high for carries was 39 and he comes in with relatively little wear and tear on his body.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
Williams doesn’t come without some amount of baggage. He was arrested in 2016 for marijuana possession, he missed games due to injury in 2017, and was suspended to start the season in 2018 after violating team rules. Don’t forget that current starter Aaron Jones was arrested and suspended after a marijuana-related arrest in 2017. Jones has dealt with knee sprains in each of his first two seasons missing four total games.
Dexter Williams produced during his final season at Notre Dame and will now head to the NFL. pic.twitter.com/wwixWFPWfq
— PFF College (@PFF_College) April 9, 2019
Williams didn’t produce quite like Adams before him. But he also wasn’t running behind an offensive line that would have both Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey taken in the top ten of the 2018 draft.
ESPN currently lists Williams as the third running back on the Packers’ depth chart. He’s actually being drafted ahead of Jamaal Williams who is currently listed as teams second running back. June ADP has Jamaal Williams going around pick 194 while incoming rookie is going at about pick 173.
Aaron Jones is the most talented running back on the roster, and one of the few players who could massively outplay his current ADP. However, the NFL itself is jokingly referred to as “Not For Long” for a reason when talking about a player’s shelf life. Jones is only signed through the 2020 season and can be easily cut from the team, freeing up nearly $740k in cap space with only a $50k cap hit after the 2019 season.
Williams and Jones aren’t slouches as athletes. In the 2017 NFL Draft class, Jones had the third-best pSPARQ score according to Three Sigma Athlete. Jones scored a 136.1 SPARQ coming into the NFL. Dexter Williams posted a 131.37 SPARQ score as a high schooler!
The previous coaching regime failed to truly make Jones a bell-cow back. Based on volume present for Jones, if he takes the majority share of the offense as the lead back in Green Bay, he can ascend to RB1 status. I strongly believe that Jones is the back to own in Titletown. That doesn’t mean Williams isn’t a player without value, however.
To become a hit, Williams will likely need an injury to befall Jones. You might notice that I haven’t spoken much about Jamaal Williams here. That is because he is an average at best running back. Dwain McFarland posted the tweet below comparing Jones and Jamaal Williams. Behind the same OL with nearly matching volume, Jones completely outperformed Williams. It won’t be long until Dexter Williams does the same.
It is time for the #Packers' to free RB Aaron Jones 🔓
His yards before contact, yards after contact, and 15+ yard rushing plays all ranked in the top percentile of NFL for runners w/ 100+ carries despite bad run blocking per @PFF
Jones v Jamaal Williams 2018 below: pic.twitter.com/I4hPbD8bEq
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) May 9, 2019
In startup drafts, you will likely need to draft Williams around pick 182. He is being taken around pick 39 in DLF rookie mocks. Williams’ ADP took a slight dip this month as he fell about six spots.
One more Green Bay player who fans should keep an eye on is Geronimo Allison. With an ADP near pick 123, Allison is being drafted as the WR56 after rookies Mecole Hardman, Marquise Brown and Hakeem Butler. Allison’s season was shortened by injury in 2018 but in games where he had a snap share over 70%, he averaged 7.25 targets, 4.75 receptions, 72.25 receiving yards and .5 receiving touchdowns. A quick caveat: this was a four-game sample size. But it could have been the start of Allison’s third-year breakout.
Dexter Williams’ potential is based on an unlucky outcome for Aaron Jones. There exists massive volume on an efficient offense for whichever running back takes the position in Green Bay. Even while outproducing Jamaal Williams, Jones was never able to lock down the role of bell-cow back. Could Dexter Williams come in and displace the incumbents and become the top back? Nobody saw undrafted Phillip Lindsay becoming the star in Denver last year and the chance exists for Dexter in 2019.
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Pete is a Western Washington University (Go Vikings! Undefeated at Football since 2009!) History grad with a doctorate in dynasty football, from a certificate he bought online. He prefers stats and analytics but realizes film grinding is an important part of the process. Dabbles in "Mild Takes" and believes in the process.
