2019 Summer Sleeper: Cleveland Browns

Dwight Peebles Posted On July 15, 2019

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

The Cleveland Browns are the new hotness and every player on their offense has exponentially gained value in the past year. The Browns finished 7-8-1 in 2018 and Baker Mayfield is leading a Freddie Kitchens offense which got better as the season progressed and the quarterback became more comfortable. The offense finished 13th in total yards and averaged 23 points a game after Mayfield took over as starter. The team then added one of the top weapons in the NFL in Odell Beckham Jr. as well as Kareem Hunt in the off-season. This young and talented team is brimming with offensive superstars.

The offense should be high-powered and score a lot of points, creating mismatch nightmares with Nick Chubb, Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and David Njoku being elite options at their respective positions. There are players on the team other than the big five who could be relevant to your fantasy team and below I will outline one I really love to be a cheaper fantasy asset.

Rashard Higgins, WR

Category: Sleeper

Beckham and Landry will command targets and get the attention of the opposing defense’s top defensive backs. The middle will be dominated by Landry as well as Njoku. Top cornerbacks will shadow Beckham and free safeties will always have an eye trained in his direction as well. These three top options will command a lion’s share of targets and if the offense continues at the same clip of 2018, there will be about 550 targets for Mayfield to spread around.

So where does Higgins fit into the puzzle? Beckham and Landry will command well over 100 targets – Beckham should garner over 150 and Landry had 149 in 2018. Njoku had 88 in 2018 and the RB duo of Chubb and Duke Johnson had 91 combined targets. This adds up to nearly 500 targets for those five players combined – Higgins had 40 targets in games Mayfield started and 53 on the season – which would fit right into the target chart to equal 550.

All of this is assuming targets will go exactly as they did last season and in the limited history of the offense, it is hard to quantify what will happen with the new alpha dog Beckham in the Dawg Pound. He will command the most targets and will likely chip away at everyone’s overall targets, particularly Landry’s. Landry and Mayfield didn’t seem to have the best connection, or at least not like Landry was having in his first four seasons in Miami, in which he averaged over 70% catch rate against only 54.4% in 2018 with Cleveland. There is also uncertainty with Johnson, as the young back has voiced discontent with his role and requested to be traded during the off-season. Many do not believe he will be with the team when the season starts and his role will likely drop to almost nothing when Hunt returns from suspension.

Higgins is currently listed by Ourlads as the starting wide receiver opposite Beckham and will get a the reps as long as he can hold off Antonio Callaway, the talented but troubled second-year wideout from Florida. Higgins led the nation in receiving during his sophomore season at Colorado State in 2014, gathering in 96 catches for 1,750 yards and 17 scores. He isn’t an explosive receiver but he runs nuanced routes and creates separation with using footwork to setup defensive backs. He has some deep speed which has to be respected and catches the ball away from his body with solid technique. Higgins works to the ball well when it’s in the air and has shown a knack for huge plays.

Reports surfaced during OTAs in May of the connection between Mayfield and Higgins and the fourth-year receiver sang the praises of his young quarterback. Higgins spent time at Mayfield’s house building a relationship in the off-season and it was evident in off-season practice they have uncanny timing and were on the same page. They both spent time working in the second team offense before the 2018 season and Mayfield trusts Higgins – he often was the quarterback’s first target option when he scrambled and they had several big plays in key moments when plays broke down.

Higgins led the Browns in yards per catch, percentage of catches which resulted in a first down, and most yards per route in 2018. The Browns didn’t have Beckham obviously, but it’s tough to imagine Higgins will fade into obscurity – he will now be facing opposing defenses’ third option for defensive backs and should be consistently one-on-one with the back. Opposing defenses as a whole will have so much to handle and Higgins, with his connection to the gunslinging Mayfield, is the fifth or sixth option realistically for defenses to focus on – although it may raise if the connection continues to grow.

A season with a floor of 50 catches for 700 yards and five scores is what I project for Higgins, I don’t see the ceiling being a whole lot higher without an injury but the connection with Mayfield and opposing defenses could lead to a good stat line for your fantasy team’s WR4/WR5. He is an option you can get cheaply to bolster your wide receiver corps and will provide you with a few solid games a year when you need a spot start.