Mark Andrews: Second-Year Tight End to Target

Zachary Wilkens Posted On July 14, 2019

The Baltimore Ravens had a pretty peculiar draft in 2018. They moved back into the first to secure a fifth-year option on mobile quarterback Lamar Jackson. They also took offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr – despite an incredibly bad Scouting Combine and questionable dedication – thanks to the talent he flashed on the field.

With the other two of their four top-100 picks, they opted to address the tight end position. With their first pick in the draft, they took Hayden Hurst out of South Carolina. Notably, Hurst would be 25 by the start of his rookie season. This was a result of spending some time toiling in the lower levels of minor league baseball. Hurst had two productive seasons at South Carolina and was seen a very good all-around tight end.

With the last of their picks in the first three rounds, the Ravens took Mark Andrews 86th overall. This was of particular interest for fantasy football, as Andrews was the most productive FBS tight end in the draft class, putting up a very impressive line of 62-958-8 in a loaded offense that also featured first-round talents Baker Mayfield, Marquise Brown and perhaps CeeDee Lamb in 2020.

I imagine if it weren’t for the selection of Hurst, Mark Andrews would have received far more consideration in rookie drafts last year. However, with Hurst muddling things up, dynasty players were hesitant to commit to either. May 2018 rookie ADP shows this as both were outside the first two rounds with Hurst as the 30th player off the board and Andrews hovering at the bottom of the third round, 35th overall.

Things swung in Andrews’ favor before the season even began as Hayden Hurst suffered a stress fracture in his foot in August. Andrews didn’t start the first game of the season, but the injury definitely paved the way for him to see the field more and he had a respectable debut of 3-31-0 on four targets whilst splitting time with Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams.

In week two, Andrews got the start and more playing time. He rewarded the Ravens with his first career touchdown. Interestingly, Andrews time on the field remained pretty constant throughout the season. His 41% of snaps in week two were the second-highest he recorded in the regular season. When Hurst returned, it did not affect Andrews’ snap percentages in any noticeable way. Despite that, his presence in the offense continued to be felt. He had 59 yards in the third game, a touchdown in the seventh and a season-high six targets with a line of 3-50-0 in the ninth game of the season.

Enter Lamar Jackson. Longtime Ravens QB Joe Flacco went down with a hip injury and Jackson stepped in to take his place. As one might expect, the speedy Jackson threw far less than statue-like Flacco and this resulted in less available targets across the board. Andrews definitely suffered from this just like everyone else, but unlike some others in the passing game, the quarterback switch marked an extreme uptick in efficiency for Andrews. He had just 18 targets over the final seven games but caught 13 of them (72.7%) and that included a 68-yard touchdown and a 74-yard reception.

He also appeared to become a bigger part of the offense near the end of the season. His most-targeted games with Jackson in the regular season were games 16 (five targets) and 14 (four targets). Perhaps most importantly, Andrews set season-highs in the playoffs with 46% of snaps and seven targets. He mustered a lowly 3-31-0 – coincidentally matching his debut on fewer snaps and targets – but hey, as the 2018 season ended, it was clear that Andrews was trending in the right direction.

I realize that a lot of these numbers aren’t at all impressive lacking context. So let me put them in the context of rookie tight ends for you. Andrews ended the season with a 34-552-3 stat line. 500 yards is a mark rarely hit by rookie tight ends. In the past decade, just eight tight ends have done it. Two of them were 2018 rookies with Andrews being joined by Chris Herndon. Of the other six, two of them would go on to set major positional records – Rob Gronkowski and George Kittle. A third would go on to put up a top-five season in his sophomore year. That was Aaron Hernandez and he may have gone down as one of the very best if not for things completely unrelated to his playing talent. The list also included Evan Engram who maintained a solid level of play in 2018 as the TE7 in points per game and is set to have a very good 2019 without Odell Beckham Jr.

The list isn’t all roses. The last two players did not go on to do great things. In 2013, Tim Wright was an undrafted flash in the pan who received lots of targets by way of necessity. In 2010, Tony Moeaki had an excellent rookie season and actually had more receptions than either Gronkowski or Hernandez. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn ACL in the preseason of his second year and more injuries followed. He was never able to replicate that rookie season.

There’s more to Andrews’ rookie season than a somewhat arbitrary 500 yards too. He was incredibly efficient. Thanks to a 68% catch rate and 16.2 yards per reception, Andrews had the second-best yards per target of any rookie tight end in the past decade. The top ten rookie tight ends list in yards per target of the last decade is a really impressive who’s who of the position in terms of fantasy impact. At the top is OJ Howard, who had a fantastic but shortened sophomore campaign. That has allowed his value to skyrocket from an ADP of 104 last August to 58 in May of 2019 as the TE5, barely behind Evan Engram.

As a result, I have no problem ranking Andrews very closely behind Howard and Engram as my TE6. I’m even pretty confident about it! This is someone who went from being highly productive in college to doing more of the same with a productive and efficient rookie season in line with many players who went on to put up additional productive seasons.

While I feel I’m making a very strong case for why his current DLF ranking of TE16 is far too low, there are some risks with Andrews worth acknowledging. I’ve already hinted at the fact that with Lamar Jackson, the team passed far less often. When you look at the actual difference in numbers between Flacco and Jackson, it’s hard not to get nervous for any receiver on the Ravens.

Joe Flacco was averaging 42 attempts per game. Had he continued playing with that pace, the Ravens would have finished with the second-most pass attempts. With Lamar Jackson? Just a tick over 23 passes a game, easily the lowest total in the league. That’s well off the pace of the run-happy Seahawks who finished the season with the fewest pass attempts.

Another point of contention would be the drafting of Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin. However, the Ravens lost their top two targets from a year ago in Michael Crabtree and John Brown. Especially considering they are replacing two veterans with two rookies, I do not believe this will have an impact on Andrews and his target share.

Lastly, I’m sure some will point to the ridiculous efficiency of Mark Andrews and say it’s just not repeatable. The efficiency itself might not be repeatable but it is a great indicator of future production. Consider the top ten tight end list mentioned above. The same is true for rookie WRs. At a minimum of 50 targets, 12 of the top 20 rookie WRs in yards per target went on to put up at least one 1,000-yard season. That doesn’t include a few players who are still in the top 75 of ADP and may do so in the future: Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett and DJ Moore. That brings us to an extremely impressive 16/20 (80%!) who either put up one or more 1,000-yard seasons or are highly enough thought of that they are currently considered a top-75 player.

So will Mark Andrews be as efficient in 2019? It’s possible – OJ Howard actually doubled down with an even higher yards-per-target number in 2018. More likely, Andrews will play very well and reap the rewards of more playing time and more targets, as evidenced by the final few weeks of the season. Just how many targets he can get will play a huge part in how well Andrews finishes 2019 among tight ends. I think it’s clear the Ravens don’t want Jackson to rely so heavily on his legs. He led quarterbacks in rush attempts with just seven starts and it wasn’t even close. All signs point to a more balanced approach in 2019, though the team is definitely still likely to finish in the bottom five for pass attempts.

You might think I’m mildly delusional to have Mark Andrews as my TE6. That’s fine, I get it. At the very least, I hope to have convinced you he is still way undervalued at an ADP of 148, good for just TE18. Howard was a player you could have gotten at a great deal in the summer between his first and second seasons. At this point, you’ve mostly missed the boat on that one. I see Andrews as Howard-lite and there’s plenty of value to be had this summer at the same point in his career. Don’t miss out a second time!