2019 Summer Sleeper: Denver Broncos

Eric Hardter

In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

With names like Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Emmanuel Sanders, the Denver Broncos were one of the most feared passing offenses in the league for a multi-year run in the mid-2010s. Unfortunately, future Hall of Famer Manning’s retirement made way for lackluster names like “Osweiler,” “Siemian,” and “Keenum” under center. Continuing, Decker left in free agency, and Thomas was traded just before last year’s deadline after beginning to show his age. Even stalwart Sanders, arguably the only remaining startable option in the Broncos passing attack, succumbed to a ruptured Achilles in the waning moments of the 2018 season.

With these changes came a diminished capacity for fantasy production. Through the conclusion of the 2018 season, Denver was a mere 19th in passing yardage and 24th in passing touchdowns, helping result in a finish as the 24th-highest scoring team. Though the team supported three top-50 PPR receivers (including the traded Thomas), Sanders led the group merely as the WR23, with no other contributing better than WR4 numbers.

Not surprisingly, this has led and will continue to lead to a changing of the guard. Rookies Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman led the charge at running back, forming a dynamic one-two punch. Courtland Sutton had a fine freshman campaign with just over 700 receiving yards, and fellow 2018 draftee DeaSean Hamilton closed the year with four straight performances of five or more receptions.

Tight end Noah Fant was selected in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft, with quarterback Drew Lock drafted a round later to eventually take over for stopgap free agent addition Joe Flacco. For a team struggling to eclipse mediocrity, this youth movement has come just in time to hopefully keep up with a defense that remained above league average in terms of points against.

There remains one member of this diaper squad who came out of nowhere in 2018 to post respectable numbers. While he remains a footnote as compared to the names mentioned above, there remains potential for 2019 relevance. The Broncos’ 2019 Summer Sleeper is none other than:

Tim Patrick, WR

Category: Deep Sleeper

If you managed to identify Patrick as an occasional streaming asset prior to the 2018 season, five points for Gryffindor. After all, the Broncos absolutely hammered the receiver position in the draft, and Denver wasn’t even his first professional team after having a couple of cups of coffee with the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers following his signing as an undrafted free agent in 2017. Already 24 years old entering last season with nary a regular season statistic, Patrick was not only off the radar, but he would have also required the Hubble Telescope to gaze upon his potential.

Truthfully, it wasn’t unsurprising. While offering better than average size for the position (6’5”, 210 pounds), along with solid if not spectacular speed and burst (if Pro Day results are to be believed), Patrick was a late-developing prospect with under 900 collegiate yards to his name at Utah. For those who are strong proponents of the combination of breakout age and draft capital, Patrick wasn’t your guy.

Through mid-November, Patrick hadn’t done anything to dissuade his doubters, if anyone was even paying close enough attention to doubt the guy. However, once Thomas was traded, and especially after Sanders went down due to injury, Patrick put forward some solid WR3-level performances. Over the last month of the season, the former Ute put up 19 receptions for 242 scoreless yards across 30 targets, far surpassing Sutton’s output during this time and eclipsing Hamilton’s yardage despite six fewer receptions and eight fewer targets. With three games of four or more receptions and two with 65 or more yards, Patrick was a revelation for us daily fantasy degenerates looking for cheap production out of the FLEX spot.

But will it lead to something more?

I believe that answer depends directly on Sanders’ health. Sutton, though inefficient, appears locked into one starting spot, and Hamilton will occupy the slot. The former carries draft capital and the best 2018 season out of any of the Broncos’ youngsters, while the latter was hailed as one of the draft’s better technicians, and also ended his collegiate career as Penn State’s all-time receptions leader. This means one of the outside positions in 3WR sets could be potentially up for grabs.

Should Sanders struggle to regain his pre-injury form (which wouldn’t be surprising for a recently-turned 32-year old), depth chart competition isn’t exactly fierce and consists of something called a “River Cracraft.” This is a battle Patrick should easily win, based on 2018 numbers. However, if Sanders manages to best both his injury and Father Time, Patrick will more than likely be on the outside looking in for a starting spot.

But when it comes to Summer Sleepers, this is the world we live in, and these are the types of mental gymnastics we need to play in order to find potential fantasy viability. Again, this is a former undrafted free agent with limited collegiate production, with just a quarter-season of NFL relevance to his name – it’s equally as likely he’s a preseason or midseason cut as it is he becomes even a league-average player. His June ADP of 229.8 is reflective of this, as he’s viewed as a final round dart throw who was only selected in three of six mock drafts. But on an offense looking to break through with a new coaching staff that possesses truly nothing in the way of healthy, proven talent, you could do a lot worse at the end of your bench.

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eric hardter