2019 Summer Sleeper: Buffalo Bills
In our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series, DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going to give you the likes of mainstream sleepers, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Adam Thielen is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
After benefiting from what can only be considered a fluky playoff appearance in 2017 (the team sported a 9-7 record despite a -57 point disparity), the Buffalo Bills fell back to 6-10 and third place in the division. This coincided with the onboarding of rookie first-round pick Josh Allen under center, which led to decidedly mixed results.
On one hand, Allen added a dynamic element under center with a surprising 631 rushing yards, a total that actually led the team and helped Buffalo retain its position as a top-ten rushing offense. Conversely, calling his (and those of Buffalo’s other uninspiring options) passing numbers “uneven” would be flattery of the highest order, as the Bills could only muster enough yards through the air to stay one spot out of the league’s basement (lookin’ at you, Arizona).
Given that the squad’s best receiver was an undrafted rookie, Robert Foster, (yes, I know Zay Jones led the team in most statistics but his efficiency numbers were otherworldly awful), and the top three options combined for barely 1,500 yards on over 200 targets, it was unsurprising to see the wholesale changes across the team’s receiving corps. John Brown and Cole Beasley were signed to free agent contracts. TJ Yeldon was brought in as a pass-catching specialist at running back. The tight ends, led by Jason Croom’s measly 259 yards in 2018, also received an upgrade in the form of third-round pick Dawson Knox.
And while it’s that last position I want to focus on, it’s not the day two rookie who will be the topic of this piece. Instead, it’s the veteran option picked up in free agency, a player with under 700 career yards and only thirty-six across five games last year. Our Rip Van Winkle-esque sleeper is none other than erstwhile Bengals tight end and “other Tyler”…
Tyler Kroft, TE
Category: Super Deep Sleeper
I often hedge towards conservatism on the utilization of these three sleeper categories, as even casual dynasty aficionados have heard of (and possibly even rostered) Kroft. However, if you reread the introduction to this piece, you’ll see that a Super Deep Sleeper is a “Player who isn’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but is still worth keeping an eye on.” As a quick glimpse at the June 2019 ADP shows nary a mention of the former Rutgers product, he appears to qualify despite a modicum of “name brand appeal.”
The reasons for Kroft’s absence amongst the 277 players who were drafted in at least one of the ADP’s aggregate six mock drafts are multifold, and are alluded to in the above:
- The Bills’ status as a run-first, poor passing offense;
- The drafting of Knox with a relatively premium draft capital; and
- Kroft’s own inability to make something of his time as a Bengal, despite the evergreen nonappearance of former teammate Tyler Eifert.
To the first point, no one will confuse Allen as one of the league’s more accurate passers. He completed a mere 52.8% of his passes as a rookie, and even dating back to college he displayed a subpar efficiency with a 56.2% completion rate across three years. It’s a problem, and there’s no arguing against it.
However, there is one positive we can glean from Allen’s progression throughout his freshman campaign – his passing volume increased as the year went on. In fact, with missing approximately a month due to injury midyear, it was essentially a tale of two seasons for the gunslinger from Wyoming. During the first six games of the year, Allen averaged a minuscule 23.2 APG, topping 30 attempts only twice, and falling under 20 attempts three times. During the final six contests, Allen added seven attempts on average (30.2 APG), topped 30 attempts three times, and had at least 26 attempts in all but one contest. For a signal caller who will never rely on laser precision, an increase in attempts is the most direct possible correlation to an increase in production for his pass catchers.
Regarding point numero dos, yes, Knox is the tight end of the future in Buffalo, and rightfully should carry more dynasty value. It is relevant to note though that his numbers at the NFL Combine were subpar and he could only accrue 39 receptions for 605 collegiate receiving yards (albeit while sharing the same field as some very talented and highly drafted receiver prospects). Adding into the equation that tight end is the toughest position for a rookie to thrive, and it’s fair to reason Knox won’t be much of a 2019 impediment.
Of course, it’s all moot if point number three, regarding Kroft himself, doesn’t get rectified. Ceding time to a healthy Eifert is certainly nothing to be ashamed of, as his namesake was a former first-round selection. But digging deeper into the numbers, Kroft only really had one year out of four where he was really able to strut his stuff.
As mentioned with Knox above, no one expects a rookie tight end to produce, so we can scratch year one (2015). Year two (2016) could’ve have resulted in better numbers, but Eifert played eight games (a Cal Ripken season for him) and Kroft missed two himself, so opportunity remained relatively limited. Year four (2018) was truncated at just five games due to injury, meaning our best estimate for Kroft’s ceiling was his third-year effort (2017) where he was fully healthy and Eifert was shelved after just two contests.
And you know what? He wasn’t half bad…
As a third-year player, Kroft had a breakout of sorts and managed to corral 42 of 62 targets for 404 yards and seven scores, finishing the year as the PPR TE16. He wasn’t stellar but did contribute five games with at least four receptions and two multi-score games, so the ceiling presented itself from time to time. To that latter point, Kroft has been a legitimate scoring monster, with eight touchdowns across 94 career targets. Albeit a bit of a catch-and-fall specialist, he’s also managed to convert 71.3% of his career looks into receptions.
Despite his shortcomings and likely with the promise of robust playing time, the Bills guaranteed him $9 million across three years, with a ceiling of nearly $19 million. At a barren position that got even worse in the off-season (Retire In Peace, Skinny Gronk), this should all stick out in terms of opportunity, especially for the price of free.
Certainly, the stars would have to align: Allen would need to maintain his volume, the other free agency pieces acquired by Buffalo would have to fail to thrive, and Kroft would have to prove his burgeoning ascendance in 2017 prior to getting hurt the following year wasn’t a fluke. But for a Super Deep Sleeper not currently on a single mock draft radar, you could do a lot worse.
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