Superflex Quarterback ADP: Staff Recommendations
Higher On
Ryan Parish: Sam Darnold, QB NYJ
When you look around the NFL landscape, you could make the argument there has never been as many fantasy-relevant quarterbacks as there are heading into the 2019 season. NFL offenses are emphasizing the pass more than ever and, for the most part, coordinators are getting smarter about tailoring their offenses to get the most out of the skill set their starting QB possesses.
That’s why when it comes to drafting and trading for the position in fantasy, I am always looking for players with both upside and bargain-basement pricing. Heading into this season, the quarterback that best satisfies both of those qualifications – talented and relatively cheap – is Sam Darnold.
In DLF’s May 2019 superflex mock drafts, Darnold was QB20 with an average ADP of 62.40. That placed him just behind Drew Brees, but ahead of guys in the old guard like Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady. We conducted four more superflex mocks in June, with Darnold moving up two spots to QB18 (ADP 59.40), leapfrogging Brees and passing Josh Allen who fell three spots.
What really stands out here, however, is that among the much publicized 2018 first-round QB class, Darnold trails all but Josh Rosen in ADP. While we all know Baker Mayfield earned his elevated status after his record-breaking rookie season, it’s a bit surprising to see Darnold frequently going after both Lamar Jackson and Allen in drafts.
From DLF’s Data Analytics Tools
While Darnold doesn’t have the floor the other two have thanks to their rushing ability, he is still a far better passer and projects to have a significantly better career in my eyes.
When you look at Darnold’s rookie campaign, the numbers don’t necessarily pop out at you. In 13 games he threw for 2,865 yards, 17 touchdowns, 15 interceptions and a lackluster 57.7 completion percentage. Looking at numbers like that doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, but when you examine his season a bit closer, there is reason for optimism. For starters, of Darnold’s 15 interceptions seven of them occurred in two games. Darnold chastised himself publicly after a four-interception game against Miami where he also sustained a foot injury that would sideline him for a month.
It was then, after having time to heal and observe from the sidelines, that Darnold began to put it together. During the month of December 2018, Darnold only threw one interception while completing 64 percent of his passes for 931 yards and six touchdowns. What’s more, he and wide receiver Robby Anderson appeared to develop some chemistry in the final month, with the receiver having at least four catches, 76 yards and a touchdown in three of the Jets’ final four games.
Darnold will be tasked with learning a new offense this year under Adam Gase, but I actually believe Gase’s offense should tailor well to Darnold’s strengths. In Miami, Gase showed he liked to utilize the quick passing game to suck defenses in before taking his shots. This should help Darnold who mostly got into trouble when plays were extended or required a long time to develop.
Gase was also fond of splitting out his running backs wide and taking advantage of mismatches, and who did the Jets add this offseason? Oh, that’s right, Le’Veon Bell, arguably the best receiving back in the game. For these reasons and more, I firmly believe Darnold’s arrow is pointing up this season. At our most recent price of QB18, that makes him my bargain buy for 2019.
Frank Gruber: Jameis Winston, QB TB
At a superflex ADP of 50.40 (QB14), Winston is my number one quarterback buy target as well as a top target, regardless of position.
His ADP has hardly budged since the Bucs coaching staff dramatically improved with the hire of Bruce Arians, whose aggressive, downfield mindset matches Winston’s. In fact, the two have known and respected each other since meeting on the high school camp circuit when the quarterback was the nation’s #1 quarterback recruit. This terrific (and lengthy) article from Pewter Report touches on their long-standing relationship and Winston’s presence as a driver of Arians’ decision to come to Tampa.
From DLF’s Data Analytics Tools
Even during his rocky 2018, he produced as a QB1 on a per game basis. With a competent, offensive-minded coaching staff in place, and one of the league’s best young skill groups, I expect him to excel, lock in a second contract and become a top-five positional dynasty asset.
His turnover rate has been overblown. Over the first four years of his career, his performance in major statistical areas, including interceptions, falls in line with two other Arians quarterbacks, both future NFL Hall of Famers.
Table from Pro Football Reference.
Winston’s ADP has not risen after the Arians hire. In fact, it fell a few spots from last month. The dynasty community is following a narrative that will only be dispelled with on the field performance. Now is the time to buy low.
NP Merrill: Matt Ryan, QB ATL
In the phrase dictionary, there is a picture of the Falcons’ signal caller next to “perennially underrated.” Ryan has never been a consensus elite QB, even after his 2016 MVP season, except by the people whose opinions, at least in some circles, matter most – opposing NFL players. We don’t generally take what players say as gospel, however.
From DLF’s Data Analytics Tools
Ryan’s June 2019 superflex ADP is 30.80 as our QB8. He’s moved up a couple spots from May, but still lags behind Mayfield and Carson Wentz. What do they have that Ryan doesn’t? I can say “Julio” as fast as you can say “Odell” or “Ertz” (or “Alshon?”).
Mayfield is talented and wildly entertaining, leading an exciting new offense, but unproven and hey, they’re still the Browns. To all the masochistic Browns fans confused by the current Cleveland roster’s wealth of talent, I say “you’re welcome.”
Wentz is injury prone and leads a highly rated offense that, in my opinion, lacks a sense of purpose and direction. When the Eagles invest sufficiently in weapons for Wentz (JJAW is a good start, but DeSean Jackson and the rest of the receivers are uninspiring to me at this point), and if he can stay on the field, and if Miles Sanders is as versatile as advertised, heals his hammy, and can stop fumbling, Wentz may have a shot at cracking my second or third tier of superflex QBs.
Ryan turned 34 years old last month, but that’s not that old. He’s got at least a couple of good years left, and who can see the future beyond that anyway? With a resurgent Devonta Freeman leading the backfield, and with Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper providing excellent targets downfield, Ryan has all the firepower required to make a deep run this year and next.
Moreover, this year he is reunited with offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who gets to face the team that fired him as head coach twice a year. Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay will be must-watch games as Ryan duels Winston, another QB we are higher on (I concur with Gruber’s take above). With Koetter as the Falcons’ OC from 2012—14, Ryan went to two pro bowls and finished as a top-ten fantasy QB each of those years.
A fantasy silver lining to the reality of Atlanta’s questionable defense is the fact that many of their games tend toward the shootout end of the scoring spectrum. I am higher on Ryan’s ADP, and would definitely take him over Wentz in leagues where I reasonably hope to contend in the next couple of years. The only reason to take Mayfield before him is Baker’s elevated hype-based trade value, as Ryan is highly likely to put up significantly more fantasy points through 2020.
Lower On
Ryan Parish: Lamar Jackson, QB BAL
While buying in fantasy football is all about finding upside before your leaguemates and paying as little as possible for quality production, selling is all about getting as much as you can for a player whose buzz and production has not yet cratered. When it comes to the quarterback position, I personally believe every player is movable for the right price. But for the purpose of this exercise, I again find myself going with a sophomore quarterback: Lamar Jackson.
Jackson took the NFL by storm late last season. He came into the league as a bit of an enigma, with some suggesting his passing talents were far too subpar to ever be a viable NFL quarterback. While he didn’t necessarily prove that critique wrong, he did prove right those who loved his athleticism and running ability, at least in the short term, by going 6-1 as a starter before losing at home in the playoffs.
Heading into this season, the hype around Jackson has potentially reached its peak. That alone should be reason enough for savvy fantasy owners to look to capitalize on his trade value, but I also have legitimate concerns about the sustainability of his production.
Jackson ran more than any other QB in history in 2018. Michael Vick held the previous single-season high for QB rushing attempts with 123. Jackson had 119 in just seven starts. Had started all 16 games, at that pace he would have had 272 attempts on the season. That is quite flatly unsustainable. Still, his rushing ability remains the main draw for Jackson in fantasy, but will his running success continue?
Wiser film grinders than myself have argued most of Baltimore’s success in the run game was scheme-dependent, and that disciplined teams would be able to shut the Ravens down, just as the Chargers did in the playoffs. And when you look at the teams Baltimore played during Jackson’s seven starts, three (Cincinnati, Oakland, and Cleveland) were bottom-five run defenses in the league, and three others (Kansas City, Atlanta and Tampa Bay) were finished in the bottom-10. So how much of that production can be attributed to playing against bad, undisciplined defenses?
That’s likely why the Ravens brought in Greg Roman to run a new offense this year. Roman knows first hand that schemes don’t last forever, as he was also the engineer behind the read-option attack that Colin Kaepernick used to take San Francisco to the Super Bowl, but that defenses quickly figured out in the seasons to follow.
Jackson’s passing ability, and his interest in developing it, has always been one of the biggest question marks about his game. Jackson averaged just 22.5 pass attempts and 159.1 passing yards per game as a starter, and he only broke 200 yards passing once. If we are to believe that Baltimore intends to dial back his rushing attempts — either by choice or forced by defenses — those passing numbers will need to drastically improve. That will only be made more difficult by the absence of experience in his receiving corp as rookies Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin are expected to start for the Ravens.
This season will go a long way towards telling us if Jackson has staying power in the NFL. For my part, I’m cashing in my chips now before the table turns cold.
Frank Gruber: Jimmy Garoppolo, QB SF
What if I told you there was a quarterback you could buy as QB13 at the end of round four in superflex? He is approaching his 28th birthday, coming off a torn ACL, has started ten career games and has never finished a season better than QB34. Sounds like a terrific value, right? Not really.
That’s Garoppolo’s situation heading into 2019. I get some of the appeal. He is the starter for a highly regarded offensive head coach. The team spent two early draft picks on receivers to go with a young incumbent, and signed a decent pass-catching running back to a new deal.
But at superflex ADP of 49.80, sandwiched between a younger, more reliable producer in Dak Prescott and another younger player with top three positional upside (see Winston above), Garoppolo is my top sell candidate at the quarterback position.
Additionally, in his limited time in 2018 under this coach and QB friendly system, he failed to outperform his backup, Nick Mullens, an undrafted rookie out of Southern Mississippi who was seeing his first ever NFL action.
Table from Pro Football Reference.
Hard pass. Hard sell.
NP Merrill: Jared Goff, QB LAR
In 2018, Goff amassed nearly 4,700 yards while throwing 32 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He finished as a top-ten quarterback, and his current ADP is 34.60 at QB11, having fallen four spots from May’s ADP report. I can see him falling even further out of that range, as I believe the Rams’ window closed with their failure in Super Bowl LIII and as the team’s fortunes go, so go Goff’s.
Toward the end of the regular season last year, no starting quarterback fell off as much as Goff. In a close win over the Lions and two bad losses to the Bears and the Eagles, Goff threw for one touchdown and seven interceptions.
He was horrible in the Super Bowl. The backfield is suddenly uncertain, with legitimate questions about Todd Gurley’s health and 2019 usage going unanswered. Cooper Kupp should be back from his November 2018 ACL tear, but will he be the fantasy superstar we’ve come to know and love? If he’s not the premium safety valve he was prior to going down, and if Gurley sits out whole games, Goff may have trouble making the plays necessary to maintain even his current flagging ADP. He’s facing a pretty stiff schedule to boot, and the Rams also seem a tad hesitant with regard to extending his contract.
Additionally, defenses are catching on to head coach Sean McVay schemes. Will he be able to evolve and continue to make Goff look better than he is? I sincerely doubt it; there is only so much he can do with his quarterback’s inherent limitations.
Do you agree or disagree with these takes? What other quarterbacks are prime buy and sell candidates? We want to hear your thoughts. Comment below or find us on the Twitters at @RyanParishmedia, @threedownhack, and @npmerrill.
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