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2019 vs 2020 Rookie Draft

Peter Lawrence Posted On June 24, 2019
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Fantasy football players are always looking for the next big thing, chasing what could be over what already is. Fantasy owners are already realizing that the 2019 class is disappointing and plenty of players are looking towards the future.

Utilizing a combination of DLF’s 2020 draft-eligible devy rankings and May 2019 rookie Average Draft Position data, I went to Twitter with a 2019 vs 2020 rookie mock draft. I used a 24-hour clock and posted the top two 2019 players – based on one quarterback ADP – against DLF’s top two 2020 in devy rankings. The format for this mock draft was a one QB, PPR league.

Just how much does fantasy Twitter favor the 2020 draft class against the 2019 draft class?

1.01 – D’Andre Swift, RB Georgia

Swift is nearly the consensus top-ranked 2020 devy player on DLF, ranked number one overall on four of the six rankers’ lists. As an incoming freshman at Georgia, he was able to get on the field in a running back group with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. As a sophomore, he took over as the lead back and continued to produce.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Swift has a nasty jump cut and has great speed in the open field. He might be a bit leaner than his listed size of 5-9 and 215 pounds, so his Scouting Combine performance will be interesting. With a smaller frame, he has at times struggled running between the tackles but is a very well-rounded and complete back.

1.02 – Travis Etienne, RB Clemson

Etienne is the favorite to be the top running back in the 2020 class, according to some of the fantasy community. While Swift might be the favorite, there are plenty of analysts who see Etienne being the top fantasy option. Etienne has a similar build to Swift and both have strong lower bodies with thick legs. At times, Etienne will get a little too upright with his running style, exposing him to big hits.

He has a very fluid and smooth spin move in his repertoire. He shows great play speed on film with good contact balance.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

In 2018, Clemson had three other running backs produce 400 rushing yards and five touchdowns and still, he totaled 1,658 yards and 24 touchdowns.

1.03 – Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama

The wide receiver from Alabama posted a monster second season as the go-to player for Tua Tagovailoa. Jeudy won the Biletnikoff award as a sophomore – voted as the top college wide receiver – and was a five-star prospect coming into Alabama.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Jeudy has a thin frame, listed at 6-1 192 pounds. He shows elite athleticism and play speed that might place him atop the 40-yard dash podium at next year’s combine. Jeudy played his sophomore year at 19 years old and will just be turning 21 when drafted. There is a lot of upside for the early breakout age prospect.

1.04 – Jonathan Taylor, RB Wisconsin

Jonathan Taylor is one of the most productive running backs in college football right now. Taylor pairs great vision with upper-level athleticism. He is one of the bigger backs in the top 2020 top tier, listed at 5-11 and 221 pounds on the team site.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

He will need to work on ball security as he’s fumbled the ball 27 times in his two years and lost 12 of them. He also needs to work on his third-down production, with only 16 total receptions. He was only on the field for a handful of third downs last year.

1.05 – N’Keal Harry, WR NE

The first of the 2019 players off the board is Harry. He will get to play with Tom Brady for the immediate future as part of the New England offense. Harry is my personal 1.01 in PPR leagues and someone I am very high on.

1.06 – Josh Jacobs, RB OAK

Jacobs steps into a pretty good situation in Oakland. There is a great opportunity with Marshawn Lynch retiring and no real complete three-down proven running back for competition. With the addition of Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, teams will have to acknowledge the passing game and can’t crowd the box.

1.07 – David Montgomery, RB CHI

Montgomery had a rather lackluster showing at the combine but comes in with some good draft capital; the Bears only had five picks heading into the draft then dealt their third-round pick (87), fifth-round pick (162) and a 2020 fourth-round pick to move up 14 spots to select him (they did get a sixth-rounder in return. Montgomery looks great on tape and has some of the best numbers for missed tackles, according to ProFootball Focus.

1.08 – Miles Sanders, RB PHI

There is a lot of talk about how Sanders has to compete with Jordan Howard and how the Eagles – under head coach Doug Pederson – employ a running-back-by-committee approach. Well, Philly hasn’t had a back as talented as Sanders in quite some time. The team spent the 53rd overall pick on him and improved their offensive line, selecting Washington State tackle Andre Dillard for a line that was already one of the best run-blocking units in the NFL.

1.09 – DK Metcalf, WR SEA

As we saw in the overall Average Draft Position data from DLF in March to April, his stock has taken a hit. In March startup drafts, he was going as about the 45th pick overall and then he slid to pick 66 where he is holding. As I said in my rookie update back in May, I think he will help the Hawks offense and be a contributor but won’t be the big fantasy weapon most had hoped for.

1.10 – Laviska Shenault, WR Colorado

If Shenault was playing anywhere outside Colorado, he would be getting much more publicity. He also needs to stay healthy and stay available. He played in only seven games as a freshman with very little to show with only seven receptions on the season. He got to nine games as a sophomore last season and broke out with 86 receptions, over 1,000 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

He profiles as a good size/speed wide receiver, coming in at 6-2 and 220 pounds. His athleticism and speed show up on film and, despite operating with rather inaccurate quarterback play, he does well adjusting to the ball and tracking it in the air. He will receive criticism for his route tree diversity as he is not expected to run too many routes for the Colorado offense.

1.11 – Cam Akers, RB Florida State

Cam Akers has been a victim of the anemic and downright awful Florida State offensive and line play. In 2018, he was constantly battling pressure after taking the handoff and stacked boxes. Akers came to FSU as a five-star prospect and was the top-ranked running back in his class, according to ESPN.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

He broke out as a freshman, going over 1,000 yards rushing, and contributed as a pass catcher with 16 receptions. The team collapsed though in 2018 and he only had 706 rushing yards as a sophomore. There were times when Akers looked lost on the field last year as defenders came at him from every angle as the line play broke down around him. He still showed elite athleticism and strong pass-catching attributes.

1.12 – TJ Hockenson, TE DET

Detroit’s new tight end rounds out the end of this mock draft experiment. He steps into a great opportunity and is a complete player with loads of upside. Coming into an offense with Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones taking pressure off him, I think he should produce fairly well in his rookie season.

Cornerstone Rankings

Swift comes in at number four overall in DLF’s cornerstone rankings. These rankings take a look at rookies, second-year NFL players, and draft-eligible devy prospects. All six of the above listed 2020 draft-eligible college players are ranked in the top twenty of these rankings, whereas only Harry, Jacobs, and Sanders crack the top 20 from this year.

Conclusion

As we get further from the NFL draft, I think every time I next run this experiment, we will see more of a shift towards next year’s prospects. There are elite players slated to come into the NFL in 2020, and this running back class could be the scythe that lays waste to older running backs and again shifts the running back dynamics in the league – similar to what we just witnessed with Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Sony Michel, and especially Saquon Barkley. I don’t see any of these players on the same level as Barkley, though.

As most have seen, it is already becoming harder and harder to acquire 2020 draft assets from your league mates. Make sure to utilize the DLF trade analyzer to help gauge the deals you are making. For those win-now teams, utilize this 2020 draft love to acquire proven talent for your championship runs now.

Of note: while working this I accidentally added Purdue sophomore standout – and 2021 prospect – Rondale Moore in the poll eventually won by Laviska Shenault. While Shenault still won both polls he was in, Moore did beat Detroit’s Hockenson by a fair number. So just remember that even in 2021, we are looking at yet another strong prospect class on the horizon.

Peter Lawrence
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