Review: Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage
In my review of running backs, none of them have come close to as intriguing on a statistical level as Kenyan Drake. The following is a review of his history and the future ahead, with a smaller look at Kalen Ballage, his competition for opportunity.
Historical Review
What if I told you that I had a running back for you to consider, and then feed you the following information — In all four years in college, playing for Nick Saban in Alabama, he never won the starting job for even a single game. In a high-powered rushing offense, this running back never had more than 92 attempts nor more than 700 yards rushing.
His college dominator score is a pedestrian 12.9%. TJ Yeldon was favored over him for two full seasons at Alabama. The Miami Dolphins signed and then used a 35-year-old running back more often than this mystery running back.
Are you intrigued? Probably not. Even Nick Saban didn’t give Kenyan Drake high praise coming out of college. The following is an excerpt from Saban prior to Drake entering the NFL draft:
“I think he has a great future because he’s sort of a speciality back,” Tide coach Nick Saban said. “He’s a great receiver, he’ll be a great third-down back. He can play receiver or play running back. He’s a very good special teams player.”
Not exactly a ringing endorsement to be “the guy” at the next level.
Drake entered the Scouting Combine standing 6’1”, 210 pounds. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.45 seconds, all measurables of which are coveted at the RB position. Some other measurables are decent, such as his three-cone drill time of 7.01 seconds, which measures as above-average agility, and his broad jump of 123 inches and vertical jump of 34.5 inches, giving him average explosiveness in his legs.
These measurables combined do not point to someone will be a dominant runner. In fact, these are common measurables to other power backs, such as Derrick Henry and TJ Yeldon — and I’m noticing a pattern here: all Alabama running backs.
The prototypical Alabama back will be a power back who can follow his blockers. Alabama has a run-heavy offense that utilizes great blocking to go with power running and breakaway speed. This is the exact definition of Kenyan Drake.
Drake was the third running back selected and 73rd overall in the 2016 NFL draft. He was taken by a team looking to complement its current starting tailback Jay Ajayi. The fear was that Ajayi’s injury history wouldn’t allow him to hold up, and Miami sorely needed a backup. The other issue is that the Dolphins had a lot of needs to fill, and this draft wasn’t exactly filled with talent at the RB position outside Ezekiel Elliott.
After a poor rookie season in which Drake only touched the ball 42 times, he entered his second season as a backup to Ajayi. Nobody was prepared for what would happen after week 10, as Ajayi was traded to the Eagles and Drake became the Dolphins starter for the remainder of the season.
From weeks 12 through 17, Drake carried the ball 100 times for 464 yards and two touchdowns, and an additional 20 catches for 172 yards and one touchdown. In a 0.5 PPR league, he finished 11th in average fantasy points over that span, so there was some optimism going into 2018.
The Miami Dolphins then signed Frank Gore on March 22nd, primarily to be used as a backup to Drake and help him progress as a pro. Right from week one, however, Gore was considered a starter alongside Drake and by week six, Gore was the lone starter on the team.
Over the first 14 weeks of the season, prior to an injury that sidelined him the rest of the season, 35-year-old Gore out-carried (120 vs 103) and out-rushed (722 vs 469) Drake. Gore’s pass-protection was also far superior, as evidenced by a plethora of articles related to the topic.
Remember at the beginning of the article when I said that Drake had never rushed for more than 700 yards in his four years at Alabama? The same is true for the NFL. Drake has never rushed for more than 700 yards in all three years as a Dolphin. This means he’s never eclipsed the 700-yard mark in any of his seven seasons playing the sport. I searched for hours and couldn’t find one other RB with similar stats.
The Future Ahead
First of all, the Dolphins are in a bit of a rebuilding phase. Vegas is giving them the lowest win-total in the league with an over/under at 4.5 games. Bad teams don’t usually run the football. David Johnson, starter for the NFL-worst Cardinals, had less than 1,000 yards rushing last year, despite being fed the rock 258 times, which was the third-most carries last season.
The Dolphins sent Ryan Tannehill packing and replaced him with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The signing of Fitzpatrick means a possible reduction in targets for the running back position. In four games as a starter last year, Fitzpatrick attempted 111 passes, 11 of which went to the RBs. That’s only ten percent of his targets.
If all of the above holds true, we can expect Drake to carry the ball 12-15 times and see 3-4 targets per game. These most-likely won’t be elite RB1 numbers, and some might consider them to be high-end RB2 values at best.
The good news is that the Dolphins used an early draft pick to acquire Michael Deiter, a guard from Wisconsin. Guards are primarily a weapon in the running game, so this perhaps gives us a clue that the Dolphins would like to help improve their running game.
They also drafted Chandler Cox, a fullback from Auburn. I believe this is in part due to the fact that the new head coach, Brian Flores, is a former Patriots coach who watched as the team utilized James Develin in ways that made the offense more powerful and dynamic.
It’s my belief that the Dolphins plan to implement more of a power system, which would only complement Drake’s abilities in 2019. There is more to this theory, since the team has a new quarterback tandem in Ryan Fitzpatrick and young gun Josh Rosen. The best way to help a new quarterback is through the running game.
All of these leads me to conclude that the Dolphins plan on running more between the tackles this upcoming season. The other part to consider is that the team also drafted another running back last year by the name of Kalen Ballage in the fourth round.
In my analysis of Ballage, I’ve concluded that he’s a pretty decent inside runner, but he isn’t much of an outside runner. In the gif below, Arizona State is running an option out of the pistol formation with a bubble screen out left and an off-tackle run option on the right.
The quarterback sees the defense with only six men in the box, giving Ballage an advantage on the right side of the line since the offensive line will allow a defender on the left side to take himself out of the play. All he has to do is run full speed past UNLV’s linebackers to pick up a decent gain. Instead, this is what happens:
https://i.imgur.com/AyAgosm.gifv
This is one example of many. Ballage doesn’t have the speed to run outside. That’s why he fell in last year’s draft, and why he won’t ever win the starting job no matter what team he plays for. He doesn’t have the speed to be able to make the offense dynamic for any play caller.
Here’s another play, and while it’s positive in yards gained, is flawed in the tiniest ways by Ballage, who has very good size and power, but lacks speed, quick decision making skills, and maybe even some vision.
In the above snapshot, the linebackers vacated the defensive backfield to cover a crossing pattern thinking pass. On the offensive side, pulling guards seal off the left side of the line, helping to create what is obviously going to be a large hole in the line for ASU. Instead, here is what happened:
https://i.imgur.com/ti8yFGn.gifv
I’m so confused. Why the stutter step? RBs are supposed to do this if they are too fast or if the play takes too long to develop. Neither of those things are true.
My only logical conclusion is that Ballage is either confused, is unsure of his own ability, or doesn’t have the vision needed to be more productive, none of which are flattering to consider. Because he took so long to make it through the hole, linebackers and safeties had time to react to minimize the gain on the field.
*****
Now that I’ve possibly dismissed Ballage as a candidate to take over the starting role, I’d like to focus back on Drake one last time. I’ve highlighted the fact that he’s never been successful as a starter at any level. I’ve shown you that he’s more of a power back than a zone back, and I’ve highlighted the fact that the Dolphins appear to want to pound the ball up the middle based on their latest draft.
The remaining question is — Can Drake actually succeed in this new offense long term? I have one more gif and then one more fact to show you. First, the gif:
It probably shouldn’t infuriate me as much as it does, but Drake has a terrible tendency to lean into his cuts, rather than build up his footwork to avoid tackles in the open field. In the above gif, he put up a pitiful effort to avoid a downfield tackle. No stop-and-go technique, no dead foot, nothing. Any player at any level could have made that tackle.
That’s my one big problem. His receiving ability is fantastic, but when it comes to pure running ability, Drake is just a guy. He can’t read zone, he can’t overpower with his smallish frame, and he doesn’t make people miss with his non-existent moves. To paraphrase Saban — He’s a great third-down back.
Kenyan Drake fell into a system with a rebuilding team that doesn’t want to put in the resources necessary to help him succeed, because they know they can’t do it, and because they know it’ll be futile since they are rebuilding. He’s the luckiest running back in the NFL, because opportunity is giving him the illusion of value.
Drake is on the last year of his rookie deal. Why would the Dolphins make him their premier runner after 2019? He can’t “do it all”, his inability to be versatile would restrict the offensive limitations, and his future contract would prevent the Dolphins from being able to sign other quality and necessary pieces.
They would be better off making Drake the best RB he can be for 2019, so that when he does leave the team and sign elsewhere, the Dolphins would be rewarded with a third or fourth round compensatory pick. That pick would have more value to the Dolphins going forward than an overpaid running back with limitations. In fact, the Dolphins are on the record as not wanting to negotiate with him prior to the 2019 season.
Drake might be one of the hottest commodities for 2019, but I would absolutely sell him in all dynasty formats prior to 2020. He’s fools gold, as many other running backs often turn out to be. The difference between a good dynasty owner and a great one is the ability to recognize fools gold before your opponents do. So take advantage and sell high while you still can.
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