Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Justice Hill, RB BAL

Name: Justice Hill

Position: Running Back

Pro Team: Baltimore Ravens

College Team: Oklahoma State Cowboys

Draft Status: Round four, 113th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

• Height: 5’10”
• Weight: 198 pounds
• Arms: 31 5/8”
• Hands: 9.5”
• Wingspan: 74 7/8”
• 40-Yard Dash: 4.40 seconds
• Vertical Jump: 40.0”
• Broad Jump: 130.0”
• Bench Press: 21 reps
• 3-Cone Drill, 20-Yard Shuttle: N/A

STRENGTHS

• Terrific burst and long speed; second-best athlete at the position at the Scouting Combine
• Incredibly elusive – showcases juke moves effortlessly
• Strategic runner and understands how to minimize defenders’ angles of pursuit
• Can accelerate quickly in and out of breaks and cuts
• Decisive runner when he sees lanes open
• Has collegiate receiving production
• Passed incumbent starter Chris Carson as a true freshman at Oklahoma State
• Rips off big plays frequently and with ease

WEAKNESSES

• Undersized for a feature back, so may be limited to committee work
• Not a particularly powerful runner but does have good balance through contact
• Average vision & mediocre patience; doesn’t consistently wait for running lanes to open
• Willing pass blocker, but has poor pass protection technique
• Has a tendency to run upright

OPPORTUNITIES

The 2018 Baltimore Ravens used a three-headed backfield of Alex Collins, Javorius Allen, and Gus Edwards for the majority of the season before adding Ty Montgomery midseason. With all but Edwards now displaced, there is a significant chunk of available carries for Mark Ingram and Hill to inherit.

We can safely expect the passing game to look radically different from a year ago. Baltimore recognized Lamar Jackson’s limitations as a passer in his rookie season and built the offensive scheme around his strengths, as well as the running game. However, the personnel on the offensive side of the ball has been overhauled and the Ravens have prioritized speed at every position.

Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin stand to inherit a decent share of the available targets each, but there will be room for the running backs to do more in this area than they did last year. There are 296 targets (54.9) and 2,879 air yards (59.8%) available from last year’s offense, so even projecting both these new receivers for large target shares leaves a considerable amount for the running backs to benefit from.

Even if Baltimore isn’t as run-heavy as they were a year ago, Ingram can carry the load as the early-down back and can leave plenty of room for Hill to play an Alvin Kamara-type change-of-pace role. The 2018 offense vacated 195 carries (35.6%). Ingram is a good pass-catcher, but he’s nowhere near as explosive as Hill. This is where he could make an immediate impact.

THREATS

Obviously, there is a well-paid and accomplished NFL starter ahead of Hill on the depth chart, so Hill isn’t walking into a feature back role, but his price in rookie drafts reflects that. Ingram will likely monopolize the early-down work and most of the goal-line touches, but the Ravens run the ball so much that Hill should still see a considerable workload on the ground and through the air in year one.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Hill should serve as the perfect complement to Ingram. I believe it is reasonable to project about 8-12 touches a game for Hill, meaning he may be FLEX-worthy some weeks. He possesses massive upside should Ingram get hurt, but there is also some upside baked into his current price if he proves to simply be more competent than Ingram.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Mark Ingram is still a good NFL running back, but as he approaches age 30, the probability of him being viable as a dynasty asset lessens dramatically. He signed a three-year deal, but the team has a potential out after the 2020 season.

To me, this is actually far more exciting to me than if the team had an out after this year.

I believe Ingram still has plenty in the tank as an above-average NFL talent, but we’ve seen running backs his age quickly approach the age cliff. If Ingram performs well in 2019, Baltimore may opt against drafting a player early in the stacked 2020 class, which would be tremendous news for Hill. As Ingram ages, it wouldn’t be surprising at all for Hill to inherit more and more of the workload, especially if he outplays Ingram.

I don’t think Hill will ever be fortunate enough to fall into feature back touches for the Ravens, but I also don’t think a player as explosive as him really needs them to be a highly efficient fantasy producer. However, if Ingram were to get hurt, Hill’s value would skyrocket.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Phillip Lindsay/Marlon Mack. Lindsay is another speed back who has great acceleration, good wiggle, and receiving game chops. They both lack true feature back size, but Lindsay’s rookie campaign showed that a lack of size won’t necessarily preclude a team from leaning heavily upon that player to carry the load if they deserve it. Hill also shares quite a few similarities with Marlon Mack coming out of South Florida, although he’s about 10-15 pounds lighter than the Colts’ starter.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

Hill is our 20th ranked rookie, with one ranker placing him as high as 12th and one as low as 33rd. He is the RB7, coming in as high as fourth and as low as tenth.

Hill is also a consensus second rounder according to draft data. According to our 2019 MFL Rookie ADP – which is taken from actual rookie drafts on MyFantasyLeague, and not mock drafts – Hill is drafted being drafted 20th on average. Interestingly, he’s also 20th in our 2019 MFL Superflex Rookie ADP, jumping Hakeem Butler, Andy Isabella, and Damien Harris.

Our May Rookie ADP data (based on mock drafts) pitted Hill 19th overall. So there really isn’t much variance in where he’s being selected regardless of format or how the data was collected, meaning you’ll have to jump into the early second round if you want to draft him.