Three Undervalued Rookie Wide Receivers to Target in Dynasty Drafts

Eric Moody Posted On June 17, 2019

Dynasty players are regularly searching for players who outperform their expectations and average draft position. Our brains are more attuned to negative outcomes, however. It’s easy to weave a narrative in our minds of why certain players can’t be successful.

Negative bias is a tendency to have greater sensitivity to negative than to positive events. If you’ve skipped ahead to the players listed below in this article, you may be telling yourself why these players shouldn’t be targeted.

Imagine if the opposite happens. Imagine being two steps ahead of the competition in your league. This mini-series will identify undervalued players at various positions you should target. Here, I share three undervalued rookie wide receivers you can target late in dynasty startup or rookie drafts.

Riley Ridley, WR CHI

The Chicago Bears selected Ridley with the 126th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Ridley was the Georgia Bulldogs go-to receiver with 44 receptions, 570 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns last season. As a sophomore during the 2017 season, he started seven games and really stepped up late in the national championship game with six receptions for 82 receiving yards.

Riley Ridley impressing with route running and speed in OTAs https://t.co/y8HicLSFHu

— BearsWire (@TheBearsWire) June 3, 2019

Ridley’s success comes from his physicality, very good route running ability, body control, and hands. He has a knack for turning contested balls in his favor.

The Bears’ crowded wide receiver corps includes Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Anthony Miller. Running back Tarik Cohen is a versatile chess piece who will command targets and tight end Trey Burton will also see opportunities. Where does Ridley fit in?

Ridley’s opportunity to shine will be the 2020 season. Bears general manager Ryan Pace used their limited draft capital to select him with may have surprised many considering their depth chart.

Robinson’s three-year, $42 million contract included a $6 million signing bonus and $25.2 million guaranteed. He is entrenched as the Bears number one receiver. He averaged 7.2 targets, 4.2 receptions, and 58 receiving yards with positive receiving fantasy points over expectation last season.

Miller was very effective with the Bears last season with limited opportunities as a rookie. He averaged 3.9 targets, 2.4 receptions, and 30.2 receiving yards with positive receiving fantasy points over expectation. He averaged 12.8 fewer receiving yards per game last season than Gabriel, but had much higher receiving fantasy points over expectation.

Gabriel signed a four-year, $26 million contract that included a $4 million dollar signing bonus and $14 million guaranteed heading into last season. The Bears could opt out of his contract in 2020. This is something that I anticipate them doing which would open the door for Riley to play more snaps and be given a higher target share.

The time to acquire Riley is now.

Kelvin Harmon, WR WAS

The Washington Redskins selected Harmon with the 206th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Did you know he was the first North Carolina State wide receiver to surpass 1,000 yards since 2003 as a sophomore?

The second team All-ACC selection finished with 69 receptions, 1,017 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Harmon led the Wolf Pack in receiving as a junior with 1,186 receiving yards along with first-team All-ACC honors, and then set his sights on the NFL.

Harmon has solid play speed, agility, hands, and mental toughness. He does a number of things well and leverages them along with his frame to win against cornerbacks. Harmon has an opportunity to open the season as the Redskins number one receiver.

Were you aware no Redskins wide receiver had more than 50 receptions or two touchdowns last season? The most notable receivers on the team’s wide receiver depth chart are Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson after Jamison Crowder signed with the New York Jets in free agency.

The Redskins signed Richardson to a five-year, $40 million contract last off-season to attack defenses vertically. He displayed a nice rapport with quarterback Alex Smith, but injuries derailed both their seasons.

Doctson has been a disappointment after three NFL seasons. He has 5.1 targets, 2.5 targets, and 34.4 receiving yards in 32 career games with negative receiving fantasy points over expectation. The Redskins have declined his fifth-year option, which is not a good sign for Doctson’s future with the franchise.

Washington also drafted Terry McLaurin out of Ohio State in the third round. He played with quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who the team drafted 15th overall. Trey Quinn and Cam Sims are the other receivers on the roster.

Haskins has a nice pass to Kelvin Harmon. Harmon showing he can go up for the ball over a defender. Aggressive player. #httr #redskins

— Julie Donaldson (@JDonaldsonNBCS) June 5, 2019

The training camp battle between Harmon and McLaurin will be an intriguing one to watch this summer. One thing is inevitable in Washington: Harmon will make an impact sooner rather than later given the state of their wide receivers.

Hunter Renfrow, WR OAK

The Oakland Raiders selected Renfrow – out of Clemson – with the 149th overall pick. The third-team All-ACC pick was the Tigers’ top receiver in 2017 with 60 receptions, 602 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. Renfrow finished the 2018 season with 49 receptions, 534 receiving yards, and one touchdown. He was the third in his family to play college football and was the recipient of the Brandon Burlsworth Trophy as the top senior whose career began as a walk-on.

Renfrow does not have the prototypical NFL receiver frame or play speed, but does possess very good route running and catching ability. This versatility will come in handy in Raiders head coach Jon Gruden’s offensive scheme. He likes receivers who can play all three positions.

Renfrow’s key to playing time as a rookie will be mastery of the Raiders playbook. He will be competing with free agent addition Ryan Grant to be the team’s slot receiver. Seth Roberts operated as the Raiders primary slot receiver last season and set career highs in receptions (45) and receiving yards (494).

Andddd Hunter Renfrow is awesome… #NationalChampionship

— Derek Carr (@derekcarrqb) January 10, 2017

Did you know that 79 percent of Renfrow’s receptions resulted in first downs? And that 29 percent of his receptions were on third down? Renfrow is in a prime position to see opportunities in a Raiders offense that is expected to trend up in 2019.

The defensive attention Antonio Brown and free agent addition Tyrell Williams will attract should allow Renfrow to thrive underneath as a safety net for quarterback Derek Carr.

CONCLUSION

What will you do with the information you learned through this article? If you are preparing for a rookie or dynasty startup draft, select these players a few rounds ahead of their average draft position.

If they happen to be available in the free agent pool, add them to your roster. If they are already on another roster, then send a trade offer. The time to act is now.

The value of Riley, Harmon, and Renfrow will only go up from here.

Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below, discuss in our forums, or reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody.

Until next time!