Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Jace Sternberger, TE GB

Michael Moore

Name: Jace Sternberger

Position: Tight End

Pro Team: Green Bay Packers

College Team: Texas A&M

Draft Status: Round three, 75th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

  • Height: 6’ 4”
  • Weight: 251 pounds
  • Arms: 32 1/8”
  • Hands: 9 ¾”
  • 40-Yard dash: 4.75 seconds
  • Bench press: 17 reps
  • Vertical jump: 31.5”
  • Broad jump: 113.0”
  • 20-yard shuttle: 4.31 seconds
  • 60-yard shuttle: 12.09 seconds
  • Three-cone drill: 7.19 seconds

STRENGTHS

  • Route running is good for a tight end
  • Quick and precise with his foot work
  • Good at contested catches and can be physical when needed
  • Never have to worry about his hands
  • Has above-average speed for a tight end

WEAKNESSES

  • Generally not strong, finishing in just the 20th percentile on the bench press and will never be a strong blocker
  • Average-size hands

OPPORTUNITIES

When I wrote about Sternberger before the draft, I mentioned that his future would be tied to his landing spot. If he ended up in an extremely favorable/pass-friendly situation, he would have a shot. You can’t get much better than Green Bay where he’ll have one of the top quarterbacks in the game to play under while also having a clear path to playing time in the short and long-term.

The incumbent at the position in Green Bay is 32-year old Jimmy Graham. Not only has age appeared to have caught up to Graham but he’ll be fairly easy to cut next year. The stars are aligned for Sternberger to have a redshirt rookie season before taking the reins next year.

THREATS

While there may not appear to be any threats at the tight end position, there will be threats to targets from other parts of the offense. The Packers drafted a trio of pass catchers last year in Marquez Valdes-Scantling, J’Mon Moore, and Equanimeous St. Brown, all of whom will have a chance to contribute this season after a year of experience under their belts. This also doesn’t include Geronimo Allison who’s still lingering on the Packers roster and, for the moment, starting opposite Davante Adams.

Of course, they all take a back seat to ball-hog Adams who saw nearly twice as many targets 169 as the second-closest pass catcher in Green Bay last year (Graham with 89).

As far as the number of targets, there just isn’t a lot of room for growth as the Packers already finished eighth in offensive plays-per-game last year with 64. By comparison, the league-leading Ravens finished with 70.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Not only does Sternberger have the tight end rookie curve to overcome but 2019 will be just his second year to play meaningful snaps on either the college or pro level. His last year at Texas A&M was his lone year, breaking out for over 800 receiving yards and 10 scores. But even achieving that level of success against the SEC isn’t nearly enough to acclimate to the NFL the following year. Expectations should be low for Sternberger in 2019 where he could potentially even be a taxi squad candidate.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

The situation couldn’t line up much better for Sternberger’s long-term prospects. Not only is he tied to Aaron Rodgers for the foreseeable future but he was a pick of the new regime in Green Bay which, presumably, has at least a few years of control ahead of them. It’s clear he’s the plan at tight end after Graham’s salary becomes a hindrance which could be as soon as next year.

Despite the stellar situation, tight ends with the Packers in the Rodgers-era haven’t exactly lit the world on fire. The best statistical season was Jermichael Finley in 2011 when he caught 55 passes for 767 yards and eight scores. Clearly a TE1 fantasy season but besides that season, there have only been two other occasions where a Packers tight end finished with over 600 receiving yards. And if you look at Matt LeFluer’s brief coordinator career, tight ends weren’t a major factor. The top two tight ends when he was in Tennessee last year had 51 targets combined.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Using MockDraftable.com, the most recognizable name on Sternberger’s comp list is Brent Celek. Both were a tad undersized for the position but had above-average speed to create space against opposing defenses. And despite playing in Philadelphia, Celek was able to achieve a handful of TE1 fantasy seasons. The two seasons he finished with over 800 receiving yards the Eagles ranked 11th and 14th in pass attempts-per-game. The Packers should consistently be at the top of the league in pass attempts which means plenty of opportunities for Sternberger to take advantage and have a better statistical career than Celek.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

Using DLF’s rookie ADP tool, Sternberger is currently ranked 27th with an ADP of 28.6. If you switch over to the MFL rookie ADP tool, he is similarly ranked at 30th with an ADP of 28.9. In the handful of drafts I’ve participated in, he’s only gone that low, or lower, once. Several times Sternberger was the 21st-23rd offensive player taken. More interestingly, he’s been the third tight end off the board, taken over Irv Smith Jr. in half of them.

TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant will be the top two tight ends taken in every rookie draft. And while Smith will be third in most, you might be surprised to see people prefer the upside of Sternberger. Because of that, and the relative dearth of options at running back this year, I wouldn’t let Sternberger go past the later part of the second-round in rookie drafts if you want to guarantee he ends up on your team.

michael moore