Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Damien Harris, RB NE

Michael Moore

Name: Damien Harris

Position: Running Back

Pro Team: New England Patriots

College Team: Alabama

Draft Status: Round three, 87th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYmPJmKmybs

COMBINE REVIEW

  • Height: 5’ 10”
  • Weight: 216 pounds
  • Arms: 30 ¾”
  • Hands: 9 ¾”
  • 40-Yard dash: 4.57 seconds
  • Bench press: 16 reps
  • Vertical jump: 37.0”
  • Broad jump: 121.0”
  • 20-yard shuttle: 4.40 seconds
  • Three-cone drill: 7.32 seconds

STRENGTHS

  • Good vision
  • Not afraid to go up the middle and use his strength
  • Can be evasive when he needs to be
  • Consistently utilized over his four-year career at Alabama but not overused, finishing with less than 500 carries.
  • Ramped up his receiving game with 22 catches his senior year
  • Despite average height and weight measurements, has above average hand size (83rd percentile) and agility (71st percentile in the broad jump; 80th percentile in the vertical jump)

WEAKNESSES

  • Doesn’t have breakaway speed
  • Efficiency drop in senior year from 7.4 YPC down to 5.8 means the possibility he’s maxed out his skill set.

OPPORTUNITIES

With how often New England rotates their backs on a weekly and seasonal basis, Harris has just a good of a chance to contribute as any other Patriots back. Sony Michel is the starter but did miss three games last year due to injury, further fueling a reputation for being fragile. Behind him are holdovers Rex Burkhead and James White, who both could be nearing the end of their tenure in New England.

Burkhead, especially, has been plagued by injuries over his two years in New England and isn’t a lock to make the roster.

THREATS

Being part of the Patriots rotation is like being Spider-Man. It’s both a gift and a curse. As quickly as you can be inserted into the starting lineup, you can be pulled right back out. New England does have more draft capital and money tied up in Michel, so even if he doesn’t keep the starting job he’s not getting cut anytime soon. While White is getting older (and more expensive), he has earned the trust of Patriots coaches in the passing game. This leaves the rush attack as Harris’ best opportunity to see the field where he’d have to both overtake Michel and be ready in case Burkhead fails to regain enough health to make a push for touches.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

If anyone is more likely to completely discard the fact that New England spent a first-round pick on running back last year in favor of a player that presents a better matchup, it’s Bill Belichick. Michel is the incumbent but it’s hard to imagine Belichick drafting a running back only to not use them in some capacity during the season, even as a change of pace back. It wouldn’t shock me to see Harris see 100 carries this season, if not more, while still allowing Michel to see 200-plus.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Harris being on the Patriots actually makes his short-term value better than his long-term, a rarity in dynasty leagues. New England hasn’t had the same leading rusher for more than two consecutive seasons in a dozen years. And in Belichek’s 19-year tenure, he’s had exactly two running backs lead the team in rushing three consecutive years and none do it for four. It’s all a product of the Patriot way: if a running back is too good, he’s going to cost more and the Patriots would much rather move on than to pay up.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

From a physical standpoint, Harris actually compares very similarly to Kareem Hunt. The height and weight are almost an exact match while both have above-average hands and ability. In a fun twist, they were drafted one spot apart from each other – Hunt was 86th overall compared to Harris being 87th overall.

However, Hunt was in an offense lending itself to studly proportions when it came to fantasy scoring, being the bell-cow back in a high-scoring attack. The Patriots will not utilize an every-down back, instead relying on rushers exploiting specific roles in their offense. For example, Michel running the ball 200 times last season, but seeing only 11 targets while White sees far more targets than rush attempts.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

Using DLF’s rookie ADP tool, Harris is currently ranked 18th but with an ADP of 20.10. If you switch over to the MFL rookie ADP tool, Harris is ranked 22nd but with an uncanny ADP of 20.09. That’s right in line with drafts I’ve personally done where he’s gone 20th or 21st whether it was a month ago or a day ago.

His current ADP is on the low-end of where he will be this off-season. As more people catch on that the running back job is New England is perpetually wide-open, despite using a first rounder on Michel last year, Harris will look better and better. I would have no problem taking him in the early second instead of risking it that he’ll be there in the mid-to-late second.

michael moore