IDP Dynasty Analysis: Gerald McCoy Signs with the Carolina Panthers

Ryan Early Posted On June 4, 2019

Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy has concluded his three-team tour and signed a one-year contract with the Carolina Panthers. It was a case of the most recent visit leaving a lasting impression as he visited Carolina after touring Cleveland and Baltimore. Unceremoniously jettisoned by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ new coaching staff, specifically new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles – who is making drastic changes to his new team’s personnel and schemes in just one off-season – McCoy can get up to $10.25 million from Carolina with incentives.

So why was McCoy available so late in free agency, and what can the Panthers expect from the 31-year-old tackle? The answer to the second question lies within the answer to the first.

McCoy’s career so far

Taken by Tampa Bay with the third overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft – the last draft before the Collective Bargaining Agreement that drastically lowered rookie contract dollars – McCoy was one of the last rookies to sign a huge deal, announced as a five-year, $55 million contract. He got plenty of playing time right away, starting 13 games his rookie year. But for the first three seasons of his career, the Bucs used McCoy in confounding ways, believing that if opponents were going to double-team him because of his athleticism, they may as well try to use that to spring his defensive linemates free with stunts. And yet five sacks was enough to earn McCoy his first Pro Bowl appearance after his third season.

In 2013, McCoy was unleashed as the natural penetrator he is and he led the team with 9.5 sacks, earning All-Pro honors. He’d always had the elite athleticism that led to his third overall draft selection. But in the years since, he had developed a number of moves, learning to use his hands as weapons, gaining leverage, and then ripping through gaps in a flash to find the ball in the backfield. He admitted to using former Bucs DT Warren Sapp as a mentor, working on technique with him in the off-season, and learning “unstoppable moves” from the Hall of Famer, as he told Sports Illustrated at the time.

Yet while McCoy was flourishing individually, his team was floundering. He entered the 2014 season with his now third head coach, fourth defensive coordinator, and having experienced only losing seasons since his rookie year. The Bucs identified and signed their cornerstone to a monster contract extension to make him the highest paid defensive tackle in the league at the time, announced as a seven-year deal worth up to $95 million.

Alas, McCoy has experienced a rather monotonous career. From 2013 through 2017, McCoy went to the Pro Bowl every year, but experienced only one winning season over that span, a 9-7 2016 that wasn’t good enough for the Bucs to make the playoffs. He led his team in sacks for five consecutive seasons, with totals of 9.5, 8.5, 8.5, 7.0 and 6.0. Those are decent numbers for a defensive tackle, but are embarrassing for a team to have as their leading sacker. Last season was the first since 2012 where he wasn’t the Bucs’ best sack artist, as he only totaled five and found himself ranked third on the team behind Jason Pierre-Paul and Carl Nassib.

While McCoy had played under a number of different coaches in his nine seasons, the defensive scheme really did not change very much. He always played 3-tech in a 4-3 defensive front. The Bucs’ defenses used relatively simple (at least compared to most other NFL teams) schemes and coverages, which is fine if you have superior talent as it allows players to play fast, often gaining a half second on reaction time as plays develop. But apart from McCoy, and linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander, there wasn’t much talent on these teams, especially along the defensive line until 2018.

Changes in Tampa

Enter new head coach for the 2019 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bruce Arians, who immediately signed up his former defensive coordinator from the Cardinals’ 2013-14 seasons – and recently fired head coach of the Jets – Todd Bowles. Bowles became notorious in Arizona for blitzing more than any other team, and being innovative in disguising coverages and using three, or sometimes four, safeties on the field at once. These trends continued in New York as the Jets ranked second in blitz percentage over the last four seasons, averaging 37% according to ESPN Stats and Information. That will be quite the change for the Bucs, who blitzed on only 23% of passing plays over the last three seasons.

Bowles immediately set out making major changes on his side of the ball. He prefers a 3-4 front and identified rookie Vita Vea as his nose tackle. That would necessitate moving McCoy out a bit. So right off the bat, they are asking a 31-year old player who has been at one spot his entire career to try something new in his tenth season. The fact that McCoy’s entire $13 million salary was not guaranteed and would be returned as cap savings on his release made it easy for Bowles and general manager Jason Licht to start looking around for a player who would be a better, and perhaps cheaper, scheme fit.

Enter Ndamokung Suh, who has played, and played well, at nose tackle, 3-tech, 5-tech, and even out wide. Just last year he was a 3-4 end on the Rams’ Super Bowl team. His asking price was $10 million for one year. So while the Bucs aren’t getting younger with swapping out McCoy for Suh, they are getting a more versatile player with recent experience in this role. While Suh only had 4.5 sacks last year to McCoy’s 5, he had 59 combined tackles to McCoy’s 28, and he didn’t miss a game either, whereas McCoy had to sit out two games with injuries. So arguably better recent production, better scheme fit, better availability, and better price tag. It’s easy to see why the Bucs made the move.

McCoy made the Pro Bowl in six straight seasons from 2012-17

The move did not leave McCoy floundering, however. There was immediate demand for his services. Both Cleveland and Baltimore became the front-runners, but visits to both cities failed to produce a signature on the dotted line. Prior to his visits to both teams, McCoy stated that he primarily wanted to play for a contender. And, of course, in today’s NFL, all contracts are primarily measured by the amount of guaranteed money found within the details. So it is curious that McCoy eschewed both teams and settled on Carolina, who had a worse record last year than either Cleveland or Baltimore, and reportedly offered far less in guaranteed money than the Ravens.

I’m merely speculating here, but I think this was an emotional decision for McCoy. First off, the Bucs replaced him with fellow 2010 draftee Suh, paying him $10 million for one season (and even gave him McCoy’s #93 jersey number). The Panthers are only giving McCoy $4 million guaranteed, but he can earn up to $10.25 million with incentives. Granted, some of those incentives are going to be difficult to reach, but it looks like effective salesmanship by the Panthers in incentivizing a good season to earn more money than his replacement in Tampa.

Secondly, by staying in the NFC South division, McCoy will get to play against his old team twice, getting a little personal revenge in those games. Finally, McCoy signed in the city closest to his home in Tampa. The man has spent his nine-year career in Tampa and is now looking at perhaps a one-year deal before riding off into the sunset. He isn’t going to upend his family for that one season, and this way he gets to spend less time commuting, including a quick trip home when the Panthers visit Tampa.

So the Panthers are hoping they get Gerald McCoy’s last gasp at greatness, with play worthy of a $10+ million payday, but have protected themselves with a $4 million loss if McCoy continues his downward trending production over the last several years. Which will the Panthers get?

McCoy’s role in Carolina

First off, McCoy will be joining an aging line and a defense in transition, without a clear role for the amount of playing time he has received in the past. Panthers DT Kawann Short is 30 years old, NT Dontari Poe is 29, and newly signed edge rusher Bruce Irvin will turn 31 before the start of the season. Secondly, the Panthers have been making a lot of noise about changing up their defensive scheme, and using more 3-4 fronts. Their personnel moves have reinforced this talk, making their actions speak much louder than words. Irvin has more experience as an outside rusher in a 3-4 front, and top rookie pick Brian Burns is a natural 3-4 edge rusher fit, as he struggles to maintain a 250-pound playing weight. So it is difficult to imagine him trying to set the edge on run plays.

It’s a good bet that there will be plenty of rotation on and off the field for the older players to keep them fresh, and a quick assumption is that Short and McCoy will rarely be on the field at the same time. Then there’s the scheme fit question, which may be overblown, in that McCoy only lined up as the left defensive tackle in Tampa a large majority of the time, but never exclusively, and he will most certainly be asked to do one-gap penetration in whichever front the Panthers line up. At the margins, these changes in percentage of downs played and at which spot can add up.

There is some information to suggest that McCoy is not the soon-to-be washed up 31-year old he looked like on the stat lines last year. He may have finished third on the Bucs in sacks, but he was first in quarterback pressures. He just wasn’t getting to the quarterback, and sacks are a highly volatile stat whereas QB pressures are not. Secondly, he’s been carrying the load on the Bucs’ line forever, and has been the player opposing offenses primarily game-planned against. That won’t be the case in Carolina as Short is the better player.

The bottom line, my prediction is that McCoy sees a decrease in volume as he will find himself in a player rotation, but will also see an increase in efficiency thanks to that rotation leaving him well-rested, and with a good surrounding cast. I can see the potential for between five and seven sacks, and around 35 to 40 total tackles, good for low-end DT2 or high-end DT3 in your DT-premium big-play scoring starting lineups.