2019 NFL Draft Aftermath: Winners and Losers from the NFC West

The NFL Draft is the most anticipated event each year for the dynasty community. The players we have scouted and analyzed for months (or years) finally have a home for the foreseeable future. Rookie landing spots create a ripple effect throughout each roster. This requires evaluation not only of the rookies and how they fit with their new teams, but also of the veterans impacted by the changing landscape.

The NFC West emerged from the draft as one of the most intriguing divisions in professional football. The Rams’ dominance is in question, with some degree of faltering confidence in Todd Gurley and Jared Goff. The Cardinals have completely revamped their offense. The Seahawks and 49ers both added dynamic receiving weapons, and have shown commitment to rushing attacks (albeit in different schemes).

Let’s break down the implications of this year’s NFL Draft additions for standing members of NFC West rosters.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Winner – Jimmy Garoppolo, QB

2018 was defined by injury for the 49ers. Marquise Goodwin, Pierre Garcon, Jerick McKinnon, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida all battled or were lost to injury alongside their quarterback. It was clear that the priority of this off-season was to add weapons to this offense. Tevin Coleman, Deebo Samuel, and Jalen Hurd were brought in to provide depth and versatility to the offensive attack.

While this certainly muddies the waters for individual players, it helps to open up the offense for Jimmy G. Samuel may step in immediately as a starter and Hurd is being talked up like a swiss army knife to be used across the formation. With George Kittle and Dante Pettis developing further, there are a number of potent options for a healthy Garoppolo.

Losers – Dante Pettis, WR, and George Kittle, TE

Pettis takes a bigger hit here with the receiver additions in the draft. Samuel is a stockier, faster, more explosive version of Pettis who has arguably more polished route running. While they can both function in this offense, there may be a decrease in snaps and opportunity for Pettis given Shanahan’s limited use of three wide receiver sets.

Kittle will most likely lead the team in targets and the McKinnon/Coleman/Breida backfield will be heavily incorporated into the passing attack. This will undoubtedly cap the upside of Pettis. The positive is that Pettis ranked first in the league in separation in 2018 and fifth in yards per reception. He certainly has a chance to preserve a role in the lineup.

San Francisco 2018 Target Distribution

The concern of multiple other players receiving targets is an issue for Kittle as well. While his role is clearly defined and not threatened by any additions, the reliance on him may be reduced. Kittle had 136 targets (25.6% market share) in 2018. I am skeptical he approaches this mark in 2019.

He is insanely efficient with an 82.2% true catch rate while averaging 15.6 yards per reception. But this may also regress based on his 10.2 yards after the catch per reception. This is 2.3 yards more than third in this metric and is unsustainable.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Winner – Josh Reynolds, WR

There was not much question that the three starting receivers in the Rams offense had secure roles. But the team did not add any competition for Reynolds’ role as the fourth receiver. This is a valuable position in an offense that plays three wide receiver sets on 87% of snaps.

If Cooper Kupp is slow to return or another injury befalls a starter, Reynolds will immediately regain fantasy relevance with a significant snap count. Reynolds averaged 11.54 PPR fantasy points per game when Kupp was not in the lineup. This carries great value as a flex consideration with upside if more injuries were to occur.

Josh Reynolds Game Splits with (left) and without (right) Cooper Kupp

Loser – Todd Gurley, RB

Outside of players with off-field behavioral problems, Gurley has been the biggest loser this off-season. Reports have substantiated concerns about arthritis in his knee that severely limited his usage and production down the stretch in 2018. The selection of Darrell Henderson in the third round after the team traded up spoke clearly of the team’s thoughts on the matter.

Previously, I was not concerned with Gurley’s injury, but enough has happened for me to reverse this opinion. Gurley will still have a substantial workload in 2019 and will be a weekly threat to find the end zone in one of the league’s top offenses. His long term viability, however, is in question, and his value is dropping in kind. Any further missed time because of his knee will put this into hyperdrive.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Winner – Tyler Lockett, WR

This is admittedly going beyond just the draft and includes the news of Doug Baldwin’s release and expected retirement. Reports have indicated Lockett will be moving into the slot role to assume Baldwin’s role. Unfortunately, the Seahawks had the lowest pass percentage in the league in 2018 (47%) and fewest pass attempts (427). The positive is that they ran three wide receiver sets on 70% of plays, which reduces the concern of Lockett having lower snap counts in his new role.

The addition of DK Metcalf adds a vertical threat to clear defenses out underneath so that Lockett can work in space to gain yards after the catch. David Moore’s average depth of target was third in the league (18.0 yards) and they added the 4.42 speed of Gary Jennings Jr. in the draft. There will be a ton of speed in this passing attack and Lockett’s targets are assured to increase lined up in the slot. Baldwin had 73 in 2018 (13 games) and 116 in 2017.

Loser – Russell Wilson, QB

It is hard to describe Wilson as a loser this off-season given the contract he just signed. Despite being the highest paid player in the league, though, losing Baldwin is a significant blow. Baldwin is an elite route runner and has had a special connection with his quarterback throughout his career. Wilson will undoubtedly adjust and the team added new weapons, but losing your top target should lead to a moment of pause. Also, the continuation of Brian Schottenheimer as the offensive coordinator and the team’s insistence on being a run-heavy team puts Wilson in the loser column.

As discussed above, the Seahawks had the lowest passing offense in the league. Wilson was 20th in attempts, 18th in passing yards, and 12th in air yards (fourth in deep ball attempts). His fantasy value was buoyed with 35 touchdowns, which is an unsustainable rate to repeat. His ceiling is capped given his limited attempts and a lower touchdown rate may leave owners disappointed.

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Winner – David Johnson, RB

One could argue that any change from Johnson’s situation in 2018 would be a win. He was poorly utilized by a short-sighted coordinator in a historically terrible offense behind the worst offensive line in the league. The good news is that most of this has changed.

He has a new coach implementing a progressive offensive scheme and who has shown a propensity for using running backs as receivers in college. He also has a new quarterback in Kyler Murray who will stretch the field horizontally and require defensive attention as a rusher. The additions at receiver will likewise require more attention from defenses, resulting in lighter boxes for Johnson.

Per ffstatistics.com.

The problem of the offensive line remains though. The team did little to shore up the position this off-season and will require improved play from their current roster. Run blocking efficiency for Johnson was 44th in the league in 2018. He faced seven or more defenders in the box on 73.7% of plays. Regardless, Johnson still needs to do better given that he was 52nd in the league in creating yards on his own and 51st in juke rate (a metric of elusiveness). If he is deployed more creatively in the passing attack and play action is used effectively, 2019 could be a substantial bounce-back season.

Loser – Christian Kirk, WR

Kirk had a promising rookie campaign with 43 receptions on 68 targets (18.3% market share) for 590 receiving yards and three touchdowns. The team brought in a significant number of weapons via the draft though, including Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and KeeSean Johnson. Kirk is slated to be most effective playing in the slot (21.5% in 2018), but this position may continue to be occupied by Larry Fitzgerald until he retires.

With Isabella and Butler competing for outside snaps, Kirk will have a competition to become an every-down player. While I fully expect he will win this competition, and that he may even be a buy-low candidate given his eventual role in the slot in an improved offense, his 2019 upside may be capped.

Loser – Ricky Seals-Jones, TE

No, I am not concerned that Mr. Irrelevant, Caleb Wilson, is going to step in and send Seals-Jones to the bench. I am marking Seals-Jones as a loser more because of the impending scheme change and the Air Raid offense Kliff Kingsbury will bring to Arizona. The Cardinals were tied for tenth-most 1-2 personnel (one WR, two TEs, one RB) usage in 2018. This is beneficial for tight ends because they are on the field more and have increased the opportunity for targets.

Kingsbury will most likely transition to using three (and even four) wide receiver sets for a substantial portion of plays. This leaves one tight end on the field and may require that player to be engaged in blocking assignment, especially if the offensive line is bad. This is going to severely limit Seals-Jones’ ability to grow into a larger role and may be reminiscent of what we have seen with Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett’s capped ceilings in L.A.

Loser – Chad Williams, WR

Briefly, Williams was an athletic talent who has been a trendy sleeper at times in the dynasty community. He has been disappointing, though, and was unable to capitalize on the increased opportunity in 2018. With the receiver additions during this draft, he certainly seems to be the one left standing without a chair. It is hard to justify a roster spot for Williams outside the deepest of leagues.

Data courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, www.sharpfootballstats.com, ffstatistics.com, and footballoutsiders.com.

Thank you for reading. You can follow me @FF_TomB. I am always happy to answer questions and chat all things fantasy football.