Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Alexander Mattison, RB MIN
Name: Alexander Mattison
Position: Running Back
Pro Team: Minnesota Vikings
College Team: Boise State Broncos
Draft Status: Round three, 102nd overall
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
STRENGTHS
- Gets downhill quick and runs with a lot of power
- Excellent vision; natural feel for finding the rushing lanes
- Decisive runner; very assertive once he finds the hole
- Excellent contact balance allowing him to bounce off defenders
- Highly competitive and wants to fight for the extra yard on every single play
- Can handle a heavy workload without losing steam
- Footwork allows him to slip past defenders when needed
- Tough to tackle in one-on-one situations
- Dependable pass blocker
WEAKNESSES
- Doesn’t have breakaway speed
- Appears to have limited short area quickness
- Will take on unnecessary hits
- Not an elite level athlete
OPPORTUNITIES
Mattison has two 1,000-yard seasons at Boise State. He’s a player who has a nose for the end zone. He also caught 60 passes during the course of his career. At 221 pounds, he has the frame to handle a full workload at the NFL level.
Dalvin Cook is the incumbent starting running back for the Minnesota Vikings. Since his college days, he has endured a long laundry list of injuries. The odds of him going multiple years without missing a game are slim which means there could be added opportunities for Mattison to see work sometime down the line.
Speaking of injuries, it’s not a good idea to bang Cook up the gut of the defensive line on short yardage and goal line plays. Mattison could deliver touchdown upside as early as his rookie season.
Cook’s rookie contract expires at the end of the 2020 season. At that time the Vikings will either need to back the Brinks truck to his front doorstep to re-sign him or let him hit free agency to save money. Mattison has two seasons to prove that he can be the team’s starting running back and that he’s capable of handling the load for the team. When you take into account Cook’s injury history, this isn’t an unlikely scenario. It can happen. The stars will just need to align.
The league values running backs as a dime a dozen in this day and age. With Cook on the roster, the Vikings could have easily waited in the draft before selecting a back, or they could have grabbed a runner on the cheap in free agency. Instead, they decided to use their third-round pick to draft Mattison, which is an indication that they admire his skill sets and they think he could contribute to the team’s success
THREATS
Again, Dalvin Cook is on the roster and even though he has an extensive injury history it doesn’t mean he can’t go a long stretch without missing any games. He’s one of the top running backs in the league and he does help the Vikings’ offense move the chains. It’s going to be hard for a rookie like Mattison to supplant a talent like Cook.
The Vikings don’t have much draft capital invested in Mattison. If he doesn’t contribute within the first couple years of his career, then the team is going to bring in another back to be Cook’s backup. In other words, the sunk cost isn’t high enough to prevent the Vikings from cutting bait if Mattison experiences a setback.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Currently, the other backs on the roster are Ameer Abdullah, Michael Boone, Roc Thomas, and Khari Blasingame. It would be a major red flag if he doesn’t finish training camp as the team second-string back, because if he can’t beat any of those backs for a roster spot then he’s not as good as advertised.
Considering the landscape, he should easily be the team’s second-string running back, making him likely to see a handful of carries each game. There’s a chance he could start some games if Dalvin Cook misses time with an injury.
He should easily hold his dynasty value during the first couple of seasons of his career. There’s always a chance that he receives a stretch of games where he’s the team’s lead back which adds value to his stock. His situation insulates his short-term player value.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
There’s going to be a time where we as dynasty owners need to realize that he’s either going to step up and take the reigns as the team’s bell cow back or just be a role player. This will be the catalyst to his long-term player value and how he should be evaluated in dynasty.
We shouldn’t expect him to take over as the team’s lead back because that might not be in the cards for him. It’s in the range of outcomes, but it’s not certain. If he does work his way up the depth chart and becomes the guy for the Vikings, then his stock in dynasty will go through the roof.
On the flipside, if he can’t take that step forward and remains the second-string running back who is taking space on the backend of the depth chart, his value will eventually start to drop. Even worse, he could find himself cut from the roster and on a different team fighting for a chance to play with a different team.
He is talented enough to hold down the fort for a little while as the Vikings’ feature back. If he hasn’t earned more touches by his third season in the league, then it might not ever happen for him. Running backs need to develop to their potential quickly or the team is just going to bring in another talented running back to compete for that spot on the roster.
Expect either one of those two scenarios. He’s a mid-round draft selection who has some potential, but he also has some limitations that could prevent him from breaking out into being a consistent fantasy producer.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
There aren’t many fantasy-relevant running backs that compare to Mattison. Mainly, because there aren’t many dependable running backs in the league who posted a 4.67 40-yard dash and a three-cone of 7.10 or worse. One player that comes to mind as a comparison is Corey Clement who is currently one of the running backs on the Philadelphia Eagles’ roster.
Both of these running backs specialize in getting the tough yards between the tackles. They are bangers who are not afraid to absorb contact. Not only that, but they have similar size-adjusted athleticism.
Mattison has an edge when compared to Clement, considering he has more draft capital invested in him. He’s also in a decent situation where he could be the Vikings lead running back at times. He has the chance to be the more productive player in the long run.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
Per DLF Rookie ADP, he is being drafted as the ninth running back off the board with an ADP of 30.70. He shares the same ADP with Benny Snell. Ironically, both players also share similar skill sets and are in comparable situations.
He is routinely drafted in the middle of the third round of rookie drafts. Out of ten rookie mock the drafts, the earliest he was selected was at pick 22 which is a late second-round selection in 12-team leagues. The farthest he fell in those ten drafts was pick 40, creating an 18-pick disparity in those mock drafts.,
He is a Dalvin Cook injury away from being the team’s starting running back for a few weeks. This could happen as early as training camp. His price point isn’t reflecting his current situation, making him a tremendous deal in the early third round of rookie drafts. Even if you’re not a fan of his skill sets, it’s hard to ignore his current cost.
