2019 NFL Draft Aftermath: Winners and Losers from the AFC West

Earlier, we checked in with the AFC West, reviewing all of the potential offensive playmakers each team selected in the 2019 draft. With every draft selection, veteran players gain competition for playing time. Some are impacted more than others. Let’s dive into each AFC West team to determine the veteran winners and losers from the 2019 draft.

Kansas City Chiefs

Round 2 – Pick 24 (56): Mecole Hardman, WR Georgia

Round 2 – Pick 31 (63): Juan Thornhill, S Virginia

Round 3 – Pick 21 (84): Khalen Saunders, DT Western Illinois

Round 6 – Pick 29 (201): Rashad Fenton, CB South Carolina

Round 6 – Pick 42 (214): Darwin Thompson, RB Utah State

Round 7 – Pick 2 (216): Nick Allegretti, G Illinois

Winner – Damien Williams, RB

Regardless of what you might think about sixth round draft pick Thompson, Williams walks away an absolute winner from the 2019 NFL draft. Since 2000, there have been 44 running backs drafted in round six. In their rookie seasons:

    • Only six (14%) have surpassed 100 carries
    • Only two (5%) have surpassed five total touchdowns
    • Only one (2%) has surpassed 40 targets in the passing game

Williams comes into the 2019 season as not only the incumbent, but one who has shown he can perform at a high level. The Chiefs brought in competition for Williams in 2019. However, neither Carlos Hyde, Thompson, or rookie UDFA James Williams required a significant investment. If nothing else, the aforementioned players are ready and able to fill out the depth chart.

Dynasty leaguers value Damien Williams as the RB20 in May ADP with an overall selection at pick 46.67. According to the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer, Williams carries a value roughly equal to the 1.07 rookie selection (1QB setting). While he may still be somewhat unproven, the Chiefs told us with their selections in the 2019 NFL Draft that Damien is their guy for 2019. He’s a big winner.

Loser – Tyreek Hill, WR

Hill could be classified as just a general offseason loser with all of the off-field news he’s created. His situation is still completely unknown, but it seems likely (and deservedly so) that he misses time in 2019 if not beyond. The Chiefs had a chance in the 2019 NFL Draft to tell us what they think about Tyreek and his situation. With the 56th overall selection, they spoke up on that subject by drafting wide receiver Mecole Hardman.

The selection of a wide receiver at this pick is not what makes Hill a loser. If the Chiefs had selected slot star AJ Brown or big, outside receiver DK Metcalf, neither would have been a direct indication on Hill being a draft loser. However, that’s not the route the Chiefs decided to take. Instead, they chose to reach for a player who profiles nearly identically to Tyreek Hill.

In the beginning of the offseason, Hill had been in talks with the Chiefs about a long-term extension. That, however, looks out of the question now, for obvious reasons. Rather than taking a ‘wait-and-see’ approach with their star wideout, the Chiefs decided to simply draft a feasible replacement. This, from an organizational standpoint, is a clear hedge that Tyreek will no longer be with the team in the not-so-distant future. All indications point to Tyreek Hill being a draft day – and offseason – loser.

Oakland Raiders

Round 1 – Pick 4 (4): Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson

Round 1 – Pick 24 (24): Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama

Round 1 – Pick 27 (27): Johnathan Abram, S Mississippi State

Round 2 – Pick 8 (40): Trayvon Mullen, CB Clemson

Round 4 – Pick 4 (106): Maxx Crosby, EDGE Eastern Michigan

Round 4 – Pick 27 (129): Isaiah Johnson, CB Houston

Round 4 – Pick 35 (137): Foster Moreau, TE LSU

Round 5 – Pick 11 (149): Hunter Renfrow, WR Clemson

Round 7 – Pick 16 (230): Quinton Bell, EDGE Prairie View A&M

Winner – Tyrell Williams, WR

The Raiders seem to be a completely new team in 2019. While Derek Carr is still under center, the Raiders brought in two new starting wide receivers, and highly drafted running back, and a potential new long-term starting tight end. With four picks in the top 40 of this year’s NFL Draft, the Raiders could have gone in any direction. However, they chose to pass on wide receiver until the fifth round.

Tyrell Williams has always been a player that is efficient with his targets. Since 2016, Tyrell Williams has ranked in the top 25 among wide receivers (minimum 20 targets) in yards per target every season, including a top five performance in 2017. Fantasy owners have been wondering what the former UDFA could do if given a full WR2 workload in an offense.

In 2019, in large part due to the Raiders’ NFL Draft selections, Tyrell is set up to have a big role. Antonio Brown will no doubt lead the team in most, if not all statistical categories. Outside of Brown, this Raiders team has as much opportunity for someone to step up into a big volume role as any offense in the league. Quarterback Derek Carr was quietly the best deep ball passer in the NFL according to PFF in 2018. He and Tyrell Williams should have an instant connection this upcoming season.

Loser – Jalen Richard, RB

Before Isaiah Crowell’s injury, he would have gotten this spot of being the Raiders’ biggest loser from the 2019 NFL Draft. Any time a team selects a running back in the first round, all running backs on that team previously become draft day losers; just ask Tre Mason. While Richard takes this “honor” now, I do not believe he is as much of a loser as people may think.

Richard is the primary passing-down back on this offense. That much will hold true in 2019. Josh Jacobs was praised in the pre-draft process for his ability both as a pass blocker and as a pass catcher. As the season progresses, it would not surprise me in the least if he is taking 80%+ of running back snaps for this offense. However, with no true receiving tight end and a lackluster group of players fighting for WR3 snaps, there’s a good chance Jon Gruden uses Richard alongside Jacobs in critical passing situations.

All this is to say that while Richard is no doubt a draft day loser, his 2019 stock will likely fall more than it should. Compared to his 81 targets last season, Richard’s usage in 2019 will look lackluster. With Josh Jacobs in town, Richard no longer has RB3 appeal as a pass catching specialist. He’s a player I’m targeting on the cheap as an end-of-roster depth play, but expectations should be tempered with Jacobs handling most of the projected work. Richard looks worse as a 2019 play than he did just last month.

Los Angeles Chargers

Round 1 – Pick 28 (28): Jerry Tillery, DT Notre Dame

Round 2 – Pick 28 (60): Nasir Adderley, S Delaware

Round 3 – Pick 28 (91): Trey Pipkins, T Sioux Falls

Round 4 – Pick 28 (130): Drue Tranquill, LB Notre Dame

Round 5 – Pick 28 (166): Easton Stick, QB North Dakota State

Round 6 – Pick 28 (200): Emeke Egbule, LB Houston

Winner – Mike Williams, WR

The Chargers had a very boring draft from a fantasy football standpoint. Of their six selections, five came on the defensive side of the ball, and the other was a backup quarterback. This shows that the Chargers have a lot of faith in who they currently have rostered on offense. Specifically, despite losing Tyrell Williams in the offseason, they have faith that Mike Williams will take command of the WR2 spot. All of the Chargers’ moves this offseason, including their picks in the 2019 NFL Draft, have pointed to him getting some serious playing time. A breakout is looming for the third-year pro.

Loser – N/A

There’s really no loser for the Chargers from the NFL draft on the offensive side of the ball. Perhaps I could have mentioned Cardale Jones here, but he’s rarely rostered in even the deepest of superflex leagues. I’m not qualified to delve into any IDP topics, but I’m sure our IDP team has some analysis on the moves the Chargers made in the 2019 NFL Draft. Check out all their amazing work!

Denver Broncos

Round 1 – Pick 20 (20): Noah Fant, TE Iowa

Round 2 – Pick 9 (41): Dalton Risner, T Kansas State

Round 2 – Pick 10 (42): Drew Lock, QB Missouri

Round 3 – Pick 8 (71): Dre’Mont Jones, DT Ohio State

Round 5 – Pick 18 (156): Justin Hollins, EDGE Oregon

Round 6 – Pick 15 (187): Juwann Winfree, WR Colorado

Winner – Courtland Sutton, WR

The Denver Broncos potentially have one of the youngest offenses in the league. Veteran Emmanuel Sanders might miss much of the season after his late-season Achilles injury in 2018, leaving the door wide open for targets. The three projected Broncos starting wide receivers – Sutton, DaeSean Hamilton, and Tim Patrick – all are going into their second seasons. The Broncos had plenty of opportunity this draft to select challengers for wide receiver playing time. However, their only wide receiver selection came in round six.

I know what you’re thinking: they did select pass-catching specialist Noah Fant at tight end in the first round. This is absolutely true. This selection, however, speaks more to the Broncos lackluster tight end room as well as unknown receiver depth. This entire offense is one big question mark. What seems certain, however, is Sutton’s opportunity to make a strong second-year leap. Our very own Peter Howard has recently been working historical target share data (link to Twitter chart) for rookies, and Sutton’s 14.3% target share exceeded what is expected of a second-round pick in his first season.

Rookie tight ends are not known to grab a significant portion of their team’s targets. With no other proven talent to take targets, the Broncos’ selections in the 2019 NFL draft indicate that they want Courtland Sutton to take the next step, becoming a true WR1. While some may disagree that Sutton can do it, the opportunity is certainly there.

Loser – Joe Flacco, QB

If Joe Flacco is your team’s starting quarterback, you have a definite need at the position. At least, that’s what the last two years have showed us. In back-to-back seasons, Joe Flacco will have to compete with top-50 draft selections. As noted, the Broncos have one of the youngest offenses in the league. Joe Flacco doesn’t particularly fit that description. While Flacco is a decent bet for a couple QB2 finishes in 2019 against the AFC West’s generally poor defenses (except for the Chargers), he might not make it ten games without the front office wanting to take a look at the future in Drew Lock.

In a superflex league, Flacco must be thought of as a short-term QB2 at the very highest. According to the DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer, Flacco’s value is approximately a late-second round rookie pick. Prior to the NFL draft, dynasty owners were hoping to get at least one full year out of Flacco. Now, those odds don’t look particularly good. He’s likely to have a short leash if the Broncos start off on a losing streak.

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