Rookie ADP, Part Two: Who are you Lower on?

The 2019 NFL draft is in the rearview mirror and we are in the midst of rookie draft season. The 2019 class offers some highly polarizing players and rankings vary across the board.

A few members of the Dynasty League Football staff looked at the early ADP for rookie drafts and made their cases for players they have higher and lower. In this installment of the series, we look at players currently being drafted 25-48:

You can find the full early rookie ADP here.

Which rookies are you lower on than ADP from rounds three-four?

NP Merrill: Benny Snell, RB PIT

A prolific rusher out of the Kentucky backfield for three years, Snell was drafted in the fourth round with the 122nd pick. He’s currently listed third on the Steelers’ depth chart, behind James Conner and Jaylen Samuels.

Snell runs with power and innately utilizes his size and strength to gain leverage on defenders. He’s not much of a pass-catcher, and he’s lacking in elusiveness, greeting contact with aplomb. Combined with his JAG-range ninth-percentile SPARQ score following a dismal performance at the NFL Combine, these traits make me lower on him than his current ADP of 3.04 (30.70 overall). Alexander Mattison, a very similar running back in size, measurables and ADP, has significantly more opportunity to see the field as Dalvin Cook’s handcuff in Minnesota, and is the player I prefer at this spot.

The most telling statistic from Snell’s collegiate career is the year-over-year decline in yards after contact per carry, from 4.04 as a freshman to 3.23 as a junior. Having amassed 3,945 yards from scrimmage on well over 700 carries and just 29 receptions during his three years starting for the Wildcats, I wonder if he peaked early, and whether his mileage and running style portend a shorter-than-average NFL career.

With little opportunity to make a year-one impact behind the talented duo in front of him, I’d rather take a flyer on a rising WR or RB with higher upside, like Darwin Thompson, or better yet target a player with more immediate opportunity like the aforementioned Mattison. Trading back to acquire multiple later picks (I’d be thrilled to acquire a combination like Dexter Williams and Gary Jennings in the fourth round rather than Snell by himself in the third), or investing in a 2020 second or early third are also more appealing options, depending on roster construction and the prevailing market conditions in any given league.

Frank Gruber: Dawson Knox, TE BUF

To put it bluntly, in standard leagues, end of bench roster spots should not be used on tight ends. Players at the position selected later than round one of the NFL Draft have a low hit rate, which often takes years to identify.

Meanwhile, running backs generally have a more easily identifiable path to fantasy relevance within a shorter time frame. One can tell fairly quickly if the value of a rookie RB flyer will appreciate.

These are macro, market-driven reasons why I am lower on Dawson Knox than his ADP of 4.09. Specific to the player, while he appears to have the requisite athleticism for the position, his career 39-605-0 college production is severely lacking and good only for a fourth percentile Dominator Rating.

The road to dynasty frustration is congested with athletic non-producers. In this draft (and as a general course of action), I prefer to avoid tight ends with this type of prospect profile.

Stephen Gill: Rodney Anderson, RB CIN

Drafters can do better than Anderson in the middle of the third round. Most simply, it’s not likely that he ever sees the field that often. Since being drafted in the second round of the 2017 draft, Joe Mixon has lived up to his draft slot, rushing for 4.9 yards per carry on 237 rushes last season, and given strong rushing rankings by Pro Football Focus in both of his seasons as a Bengal.

With middling receiving production and pass blocking grades, there is potential for Mixon to be supplanted in the passing game; however, that opportunity is much more likely to go to Trayveon Williams (or Giovani Bernard, who looks to be on his way out of the offense): Williams caught more passes in each of his three seasons at Texas A&M than Anderson caught in his one full, healthy season at Oklahoma. Furthermore, Williams was taken higher in the draft than Anderson, offers more playmaking potential in the open field, and is a well-regarded pass blocker.

One might also take Anderson in hopes that he gains value if Mixon were to sustain an injury, but there still isn’t much indication that Anderson would become “the guy” as a rusher ahead of Williams and Bernard if that were to happen. Even then, Anderson’s injury history raises concerns that he may not last that long with such a role.

Altogether, Anderson’s value comes in the likely committee that he’d share with Williams and/or Bernard in the event that Joe Mixon was to be injured. A player who’d be “okay, if the running back ahead of him were to have a major injury” would be better to take in the fourth or fifth rounds, when Riley Ridley, Jalen Hurd, Ryquell Armstead, and even Williams aren’t still available.

Tom Burroughs: Trayveon Williams, RB CIN

Yes, I am discussing the other running back drafted by Cincinnati after Stephen covered Rodney Anderson. I think many of the points raised by Stephen apply to Williams as well. Most importantly, there is little to no clarity about who would step in if Mixon were to be injured. I am a firm believer that Mixon will ascend into the elite tier of running backs and will not leave much room for production elsewhere in the backfield. So this requires Mixon missing time for another back to be relevant. And while I am typically targeting high-value handcuffs in these rounds of rookie drafts, Williams profiles as much more of a Giovani Bernard replacement instead of an early-down back.

At 5’8” and 208 lbs with a low 4.5 40 time, he has similar size and speed as Bernard as a prospect. But a major difference is their agility scores (88th versus ninth percentile). Williams may struggle to find a role in the NFL as an undersized back with poor elusiveness. And as a sixth-round pick, he is most likely considered expendable if he does not meet expectations early.

The one area where he certainly can distinguish himself is in his receiving ability. He progressively increased this role throughout his college career, and could work to spell another back if Mixon were to miss time. But overall, there are better options I would target who have a more clear route to playing time in this round. I would wait to consider Williams in the late fourth round.

Ryan Parish: Riley Ridley, WR CHI

I’m down on Riley Ridley – perhaps the best route runner in this class – after the draft. Much like his brother Calvin Ridley, Riley is a technician who wins with polish despite lacking elite athleticism. At the combine, Ridley ran a pedestrian 4.58 40-time, ranked in the fifth percentile vertical leap and in the eighth percentile in the three-cone drill. For a receiver without incredible size, you’d like to see better numbers there.

Still, Ridley was easily Georgia’s best receiver this past season, even if that didn’t lead to much production. The Bulldogs love to run the ball, and Ridley was able to lead the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns with a 43-559-9 line.

I don’t dislike Riley as a prospect thanks to his route running, but I am not a huge fan of where he landed. In Chicago, he finds himself in a crowded receiver room and paired with a quarterback many still have questions about. While Mitchell Trubisky took strides last year, he is still far from a finished product.

Chicago also looks to spread the ball around. No player had over 755 yards receiving and no player had 100 targets, but three had over 90: Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Tarik Cohen. Throw Anthony Miller, Cordarrelle Patterson and Emanuel Hall into the mix, and factor in that Chicago loves to win with stifling defense and killing the clock with the run game, and I have a hard time envisioning Ridley becoming anything more than a complementary piece. While I’m more apt to take him in the fourth or fifth round, there are still players I prefer more at his 34.3 ADP.