Rookie ADP, Part Two: Who are you Higher on?
The 2019 NFL draft is in the rearview mirror and we are in the midst of rookie draft season. The 2019 class offers some highly polarizing players and rankings vary across the board.
A few members of the Dynasty League Football staff looked at the early ADP for rookie drafts and made their cases for players they have higher and lower. Here is a look at the top 24:
You can find the full early rookie ADP here.
Which rookies are you higher on than ADP from rounds three-four?
NP Merrill: Dexter Williams, RB GB
Things are a bit up in the air in Green Bay’s backfield. New coach Matt LaFleur recently disappointed many dynasty enthusiasts, particularly those hoping for a big year from Aaron Jones, by proclaiming that a committee at running back is his preferred approach. Both Jones and Jamaal Williams have sustained injuries that led to missed games. In April, Green Bay drafted a sixth-rounder to provide some youthful competition at the position.
Playing for Notre Dame all four years in college, Dexter Williams only had 99 carries while backing up CJ Prosise and Josh Adams early on. In 2018, he established himself as the lead back for the Fighting Irish while rushing for 995 yards and 12 touchdowns on 158 carries, and catching 16 of 24 targets for one additional touchdown. He accomplished these numbers in only nine games, having served a suspension for a relatively minor off-field incident that appears to be anomalous and is unlikely to be repeated now that his mom is his new roommate in Green Bay.
Williams’ current ADP of 4.02 (39.30 overall) in rookie mock drafts is lower than justified, under the circumstances. Unlike some of the bigger-name running backs in this year’s rookie class, he has plenty of tread left and is trending in the right direction in terms of both athleticism and maturity. He’s praised by his coaches for his work ethic and ability to grasp the concepts and plays they’re teaching him. His college teammates called him the “Juice Man,” reflecting his energizing presence on and off the field. His strong Combine performance indicates significant upside, and watching him run is a treat as he can score from anywhere on the field.
If Williams can improve as a pass-blocker, he may carve out a role for the Packers sooner rather than later. I’m comfortable taking him in rookie drafts as high as the late second round. If he falls to you in the fourth, take the money and run.
Frank Gruber: Diontae Johnson, WR PIT
There is a receiver available in the third round of rookie drafts who presents terrific value for the price. He has round three NFL Draft capital and steps into the league’s highest volume passing offense – an offense that lost its top receiver and his team-leading 168 targets this off-season.
Diontae Johnson does not have imposing size or a prolific athletic profile, but checks boxes related to receiving market share, yards per reception and breakout age. He figures to contribute in the return game but most importantly, steps into one of the NFL’s prime landing spots. He presents an attractive combination of production and opportunity in the third round of rookie drafts (3.02 ADP).
Pittsburgh signed Donte Moncrief to a two-year, $9m deal and has second-year wideout James Washington under contract through 2021. But the third round draft capital spent on Johnson suggests that the team’s WR2 spot behind JuJu Smith-Schuster is far from settled. For the inexpensive price of a rookie third-round pick, Johnson is worth the risk.
Stephen Gill: Jalen Hurd, WR SF
In a somewhat uninspiring 2019 rookie draft class, Jalen Hurd offers awesome upside in the middle-to-late third round. Turn on his tape from this past year, and you’ll see one of the most quick and agile receivers measuring over 6’4” and 225 pounds in recent memory. Thus, already, you have great potential in a guy who’s huge and fast. Of course, the floor is quite low if said guy isn’t polished. But, very surprisingly for a player in his first season as a receiver, Hurd looked like a pretty refined receiver in 2018.
He probably doesn’t have the ball skills to be a great outside receiver, but his size and footwork offer the upside of both a strong receiving tight end and a nimble slot receiver, all wrapped up into one. In an NFL that makes increasingly strong use of unconventional weapons, I can’t help but get excited about ways that Hurd could be deployed at the next level. Conveniently, he’s entering a 49er offense that’s masterminded by Kyle Shanahan, one of the league’s most innovative offensive minds.
The downside is obvious: Receiving alongside George Kittle, Dante Pettis, Deebo Samuel, a bevy of capable pass-catching backs, and more, his target share will start quite low. However, give Hurd more than a season to develop his receiving skills, and he could grow into a legitimate go-to receiver. In the meantime, he should provide the occasional strong scoring week, providing some value to best ball owners or other owners who are in a pinch.
The ceiling is just one hypothetical, but in the middle of the third round, that hypothetical ceiling looks better than those of the backup running backs and fourth-round receivers he’s currently being drafted behind.
Tom Burroughs: Gary Jennings, WR SEA
Rounds three-four are typically where it is time to start taking “your guys.” The clear starters and talents have been selected and everyone in this range has question marks. That is why I tend to target high upside handcuffs and explosive receivers who have an opportunity to see the field early in their careers. Jennings certainly meets these criteria. Coming out of West Virginia, he is 6’1” and 216 lbs with a SPARQ score in the 95th percentile. As a bonus, he has adequate draft capital as a mid-fourth round selection.
Jennings is stepping into a solid situation to begin his career. Doug Baldwin is no longer with the team and reports indicate Tyler Lockett will step into the slot. This opens up an outside receiver position opposite DK Metcalf for either Jennings or David Moore to fill. The downside is volume. The Seahawks were dead last in pass percentage (47%) and pass attempts (427) in 2018 with no hope of this changing in the near future. The positive is that the team still used three wide receiver sets 70% of plays and Russell Wilson led the league in passer rating (111) in this personnel usage.
Jennings will most likely start behind Moore in 2019. But not much needs to happen for him to see the field. If he is able to become more polished in his route running, he can be a contributor earlier than expected and is worth an add in the mid-to-late third round.
Ryan Parish: Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
Every draft cycle, we in the dynasty and draftnik community will inevitably come across some prospects in the later rounds that we become infatuated with. Sure, we have love for the players at the top of the class, everyone does, but when you’ve dug in on a guy that could turn out to be one of those mythical sleepers we are always chasing — that’s the good stuff. All of this is my long-winded way of saying that Terry McLaurin is my biggest draft crush this year, and much like Ron Burgundy with his love for Veronica Corningstone, I’m excited and I want to shout my love for McLaurin’s from the top of a mountain.
I think McLaurin has been criminally underrated through the pre-draft cycle. After seeing videos of him toasting corners during practices at the Senior Bowl, I knew I had to find out more about this prospect. The big concern that will jump out to you when looking at McLaurin as you’re preparing for your draft is that the production until his senior season (35-701-11) was lacking.
Normally I don’t want to settle for the easy narrative of “the system was to blame,” when rationalizing a lack of production in college, but after watching the tape on McLaurin and seeing the Buckeyes receiving production explode this year with Dwayne Haskins under center instead of JT Barrett, it’s hard to point to anything else. McLaurin sports 4.3 speed, polished routes, shows good ball tracking, can play multiple receiver positions, and he has a knack for finding the soft spot in the defense as he showed against Michigan State.
McLaurin also has an enviable opportunity for a rookie wide receiver. In Washington, McLaurin does not have much competition to block him from seeing the field early. Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson, Trey Quinn, Kelvin Harmon — these are all that stand in McLaurin’s way to early playing time. Add in that he already has a built-in chemistry with Haskins, and McLaurin has quite the opportunity.
Based on talent and that opportunity, I’m comfortable taking McLaurin by the mid-second, though I’ve been able to snag him in the third round of most of my drafts and have seen him get drafted after Harmon in start-up drafts, despite Washington drafting McLaurin three rounds earlier. Don’t make that mistake. Join the McLaurin hive before it’s too late.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
