Is Patrick Mahomes Worth a First-Round Dynasty Startup Pick?

Johnny Kinsley

There have not been many seasons like that achieved by Patrick Mahomes in 2018. The MVP and Offensive Player of the Year, Mahomes had one of the greatest, most thrilling seasons from a quarterback in NFL history, all in his first full year as a starter (he only played one game in 2017).

Mahomes was also the most dominant player in fantasy football, as he threw for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. At FantasyData, he easily scored the most fantasy points, putting up 417.08 points to put himself way ahead of second place (Matt Ryan, 353.96).

He set numerous records during his breakout 2018 campaign, including being the first player to throw for over 3,000 yards in his first ten games (3,185), throwing for the most TD passes through the first two games of a season (ten), being the youngest QB to throw for six TDs in a game (22 years, 364 days), and the youngest QB to throw for 50 touchdowns in a single season.

Oh yeah, and he also became the third quarterback ever to throw for 50 touchdowns or more in a season (Tom Brady in 2007, Peyton Manning in 2013).

Now, normally quarterbacks aren’t taken with your first pick of a draft, and that’s generally where wide receivers are coveted. But with Mahomes coming off such a historical, statistically dominant season, is he worth drafting with your first pick?

Well, let’s put it this way; Mahomes is not the first player of his style. Players like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and fellow QB classmate Deshaun Watson have excelled at not only creating plays outside the pocket, but doing so from or to all sorts of unconventional angles and areas on the field.

However, Mahomes’ style of quarterbacking is still immediately recognizable, and that’s because he seems to up the ante on the angles and platforms he throws to and from. Combined with incredible arm talent and sensational deep accuracy, this makes keeping up with his stats a lot of fun.

And boy does he put up stats. There might be some factors going into 2019 that are of minor concern, but Mahomes is an amazing talent who could perhaps warrant your interest in the first round. Let’s take a look at just what makes him such a fascinating player and why his success in 2018 is sustainable.

word image 12

This is a routine play for Mahomes. For 99 percent of the other players at the position, this is impossible. The Broncos send a simple four-man rush and successfully create interior pressure on the Kansas City quarterback. The options to the left of the field (where he’s rolling out to) are all covered, so it appears as if Mahomes has to throw the ball away.

And just like that, Mahomes somehow locates an open Travis Kelce on the other side of the field, and gets this ball to his tight end. His combination of mobility and arm talent make this play possible. With the skill set of players with lesser mobility and arm strength (think Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, etc.), this could not be done. What also helps is Mahomes keeps his eyes up even while being forced out of the pocket.

word image 13

There’s no way I could’ve written this up without mentioning arguably the most iconic play of Mahomes’ career; the bomb he had on fourth-and-nine against the Ravens. He throws this running away across his body to the middle of the field. Normally we’d say you’d count on one hand the list of other quarterbacks who could make this throw, but good luck raising more than one finger.

This is one of the most spectacular plays a quarterback has ever made and perfectly encapsulates Mahomes’ creativity and awe-inspiring playmaking outside the pocket. But to say he only succeeds as a backyard passer would be selling him way too short.

word image 14

Back in 2017, you either loved Mahomes as a prospect or thought he possessed issues with footwork and accuracy and needed a year behind Alex Smith to get up to speed with the NFL. Personally, I’m not in favor of letting a first-round pick sit a year to “learn” or whatever, but apparently it worked for Mahomes because his footwork is extremely refined and his accuracy was superb in 2018.

As a pocket passer, Mahomes is calm, collected, and has disciplined mechanics. The Rams, sending a five-man rush on this play, also have pretty good coverage downfield, so the quarterback is asked to do a lot more than simply throw to a wide open receiver in a favorable play call.

Mahomes does three things that make this play work and work insanely well. 1) Because of his arm talent, he’s able to reduce the amount of time needed to set his feet and make this throw without delivering it off balance (that’s a good thing because the edge pressure condenses the pocket as he makes this throw). 2) Mahomes manipulates the eyes of safety John Johnson, freezing him long enough to have Kelce pass him before quickly turning to Kelce and delivering this pass. 3) The anticipation puts this all together. A lesser quarterback would need Kelce to pass Johnson before making this throw, but Mahomes, aware of the route combinations, trusts himself to deliver this into such a small window, and does so.

The result is a dime of a deep pass by Mahomes.

word image 15

We know Mahomes can play under pressure as he’s forced out of the pocket, and thankfully the same is true inside. Andy Reid calls for a jet sweep fake, while the Jaguars defense uses a twist and an extra blitzer to pressure the quarterback.

Mahomes simply steps up in the pocket, and despite pressure being in his face and surrounding him, delivers this pass to Kelce. (Based on how this article is going, you’d think he’s the only receiver the Chiefs have.) Plays like this are why I think Mahomes’ success and monster stats are sustainable. Maybe he won’t have a season quite like 2018 from a statistical perspective, but he doesn’t flinch against pressure, nor does he lower his eyes and abandon the play when a challenge is presented to him.

word image 16

Finally, let’s take one more moment to admire Mahomes’ arm. Remember the jump pass from the NFL Blitz games from the late 90s’ and early 2000s’? This is sort of like that. This isn’t a massive jump, but Mahomes is throwing from an awkward, yet necessary platform. He’s able to progress through his reads, cycling the field as he spots DeMarcus Robinson and flings this cannon to #11 for a huge play.

Patrick Mahomes’ ability to combine throws from angles you’d never even consider with sensational mobility and arm strength, as well a strong, controlled foundation as a pocket passer is special. It’s a become a cliche to call a player of his talent a cheat code, but that’s exactly who he is.

Now, Mahomes has the accuracy, mobility, and overall transcendental talent worthy enough to be considered a first rounder in a dynasty draft, but there’s one, obvious problem (outside of the potential dangers of the Madden Curse). Depending on what happens to Tyreek Hill after being involved in another domestic abuse scandal, the talent level on the Chiefs’ receiving corps could take a huge hit. Travis Kelce is the best tight end in the game, and Sammy Watkins has always been an underrated receiver, but who knows what Mecole Hardman can become.

This alone makes it hard to draft Mahomes as high as I’ve suggested if Hill is indeed suspended or banned altogether. Still, it’s worth the risk to draft Mahomes as soon as possible, even if that ultimately getting him in the first round. It comes full circle here, as it was considered a risk for Kansas City to trade up and take him in the top ten in 2017.

Wherever you draft Mahomes, you’re getting perhaps the best quarterback going into 2019 and one of the greatest talents the position has ever seen.

johnny kinsley