Three Undervalued Rookie Running Backs to Target in Dynasty Drafts

Eric Moody

Dynasty players are regularly search for players who outperform their expectations and average draft position. Our brains are more attuned to negative outcomes, however. It’s easy to weave a narrative in our minds of why certain players can’t be successful. Negative bias is a tendency to have greater sensitivity to negative than to positive events. If you’ve skipped ahead to the players listed below in this article you may be telling yourself why these players shouldn’t be targeted.

Imagine if the opposite happens. Imagine being two steps ahead of the competition in your league. This mini-series will identify undervalued players at various positions you should target. Here, I share three undervalued rookie running backs you can target late in dynasty startup or rookie drafts.

Dexter Williams, RB GB

The Packers selected Williams No. 194 overall in the 2019 NFL Draft. His collegiate career at the University of Notre Dame has been defined by peaks and valleys. Williams finished with a career 257 rushing attempts, 1,636 rushing yards, and 20 rushing touchdowns. He also had 22 receptions, 162 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns. Williams played as a true freshman, but was not the starter until his senior season. He accumulated 100 or more rushing yards in four of his nine games during his final season with the Fighting Irish.

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Williams missed multiple games at Notre Dame due to suspensions and injuries. He never rushed for 1,000 yards or had more than 39 carries in a single season before 2018. Williams displayed very good acceleration, agility, and showed well at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis with a 4.57 forty-yard dash and broad jump. He has the potential to be an every-down back in the NFL. What hurdles does Williams have to overcome for that happen?

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Williams joins a Packer backfield with established runners in Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. The team also has Kapri Bibbs and Danny Vitale on the roster. The Packers new coaching regime does not have any ties to Jamaal Williams. Dexter Williams should open training camp as the No. 3 running back, but could unseat the other Williams as the No. 2 with a strong training camp and preseason. This would provide him an opportunity to see more snaps, touches, and open the season as part of a running back by committee with Jones. The Packers sixth-round draft pick could find himself in an every-down role if Jones were ever to miss time.

Darwin Thompson, RB KC

The Chiefs selected Thompson No. 214 overall. His one season at Utah State resulted in 153 rushing attempts, 1,044 rushing yards, and 14 touchdowns in 13 games. Thompson was also very productive as a receiver out of the backfield, catching 23 passes for 351 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He transferred to USU from Northeastern Oklahoma A&M where he was rushed for 1,391 yards and scored eight touchdowns during his sophomore season.

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There is an opportunity for Thompson to gain traction in the Chiefs backfield.

The running backs in head coach Andy Reid’s offenses in Kansas City have averaged 20.5 rushing attempts and 7.5 targets per game since 2013. Historically he has a tendency to rely on one back.

Damien Williams started five games for the Chiefs last season after running back Kareem Hunt was released. He accumulated 572 total yards and scored eight touchdowns. Williams benefited from being part of one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL last season and signed a two-year contract extension late last year.

Carlos Hyde finds himself on his fourth team since 2017. His most successful seasons were in 2016 and 2017. Hyde averaged 84.2 total yards and 15 PPR fantasy points per game over that time frame. He has struggled to stay healthy in recent seasons and signed a one-year contract.

Thompson’s selection in the NFL Draft implies the Chiefs coaching staff and front office view Hyde as expendable. It’s possible that Thompson could supplant Hyde as the No. 2 running back. Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s NFL future is still up in the air. The running backs could be leveraged more as receivers to help fill the gap. Given the circumstances, Reid may be open to using more of a running back by committee this season. Thompson is at home running in between the tackles, but is a viable pass catcher with very good agility and an effective route runner. The time to invest is now considering the contracts of Williams and Hyde, but Thompson could provide fantasy value sooner than you think.

Devine Ozigbo, RB NO

The Saints signed Ozigbo as a rookie free agent after the 2019 NFL Draft. The former Nebraska Cornhuskers running back thrived in an offense that leaned heavily on outside zone blocking, but he also has the ability to run inside. Ozigbo’s most productive collegiate season was his senior year. He rushed for 1,082 yards and 12 touchdowns on 155 carries while setting career highs in receptions (23) and receiving yards (203) against inferior defenses. This may have led to Ozigbo going undrafted. He led all FBS running backs in yards after contact per attempt (4.5) and gained two or more yards after contact on nearly 75 percent of his carries according to Pro Football Focus. Ozigbo wasn’t invited to the Combine despite the success he had during the 2018 season. What led the Saints to sign him?

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The Saints running game is heavily dependent on outside zone blocking. The team is also looking to replace Mark Ingram. The Saints did sign Latavius Murray to a four-year, $14.4 million contract. If you look closely at the contract, the first two years are guaranteed. The Saints could release him after the 2020 season with minimal impact on the salary cap. Were you aware that Murray would be 32 years old at the end of the contract?

Ozigbo is the type of player you should stash on your bench. Saints head coach Sean Payton has had success in the past with undrafted running backs. These players include Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, Khiry Robinson, and Aaron Stecker.

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Ozigbo’s main competition for the No. 3 running back spot is Dwayne Washington. He could threaten Murray’s role as the No. 2 back with a strong training camp and preseason against NFL defenses. Ozigbo could thrive in New Orleans if he earns the opportunity, taking into account the offensive scheme, offensive line, and his athletic ability.

Conclusion

What will you do with the information you learned through this article? If you are preparing for a rookie or dynasty startup draft, select these players a few rounds ahead of their average draft position. If they happen to be available in the free agent pool add them to your roster. If they are already on another roster, then send a trade offer. The time to act is now. The value of Williams, Thompson, and Ozigbo will only go up from here.

Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below, discuss in our forums, or better yet reach via Twitter @EricNMoody.

Until next time!