Rookies Destined to be Underdrafted
While there was not much offensive excitement on day one of the NFL draft, I still like how the dominoes fell on days two and three. As a result, some great values have been created in rookie drafts. Almost everyone is focused on the wide receivers, but I believe it’s mainly players at the other skill positions who have a truly great chance to return solid value based on current ADP. Let’s take a look at some of these players who are destined to be underdrafted in rookie drafts this year.
*ADP references are based on MFL ADP results pulled from Dynastyleaguefootball.com on 5/21/19. Numbers are subject to change as more data is gathered and updated daily
Damien Harris, RB NE (MFL ADP 23.46)
I have been a fan of Harris while he played at Alabama and throughout the pre-draft process. I expected him to be selected on day two of the NFL draft but worried his lackluster combine performance might push him towards the back-end of day two rather than the front-end. He did end up being selected near the end of the third round, but it is still decent draft capital for a running back.
However, the New England landing spot has many worried about both his short-term and long-term outlook. Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead are all still on the team and the Patriots have been notoriously one of the hardest backfields to figure out from week to week. These concerns have no doubt pushed Harris’s draft stock down. He was considered a late first-round rookie pick a month ago and is now often taken in the middle or later parts of the second round.
Let’s take a look at why I’m willing to select Harris higher than his current ADP.
First off, considering the depth the Patriots already had at running back, the fact they still spent a third-round draft pick on Harris suggests they had a higher draft grade on him than where they selected him. They also traded up to make sure they landed Harris, signaling they clearly have a plan and role for him.
Harris also has major upside in the event Michel gets injured. Nobody likes seeing players get hurt, but it is the reality of the NFL, especially at the running back position. Do not forget Michel has had some injury issues over the past couple of years as well. The Patriots likely do not want White carrying the ball 15 plus times a game and I am confident Harris can jump over Burkhead on the depth chart in short order.
A running back who figures to have a role in a good offense – and the upside to have his role expanded significantly – is a great investment in the second round of a rookie draft.
Marquise Brown, WR BAL (MFL ADP 14.80)
There are many question marks in Brown’s profile, including his size, landing spot, and lisfranc injury. However, we heard all off-season how Brown was going to be one of few and maybe only receiver selected in the first round of the NFL draft. He is one of the classic players people inside the NFL circle like much better than fantasy analysts and whether we like it or not what “the NFL” thinks of him matters a lot.
The fact the Ravens selected him in the first round eases some of my concerns about his lisfranc injury. Each team had access to his medical history and I do not think any team would make that much of an investment in him had his medicals not checked out. In addition, an article back in April suggested the examinations performed on his foot were excellent.
The writing was on the wall all off-season for Brown to be selected in the first round of the NFL draft. I just do not think many analysts wanted to believe it would happen. This kept his price down all off-season and he still remains a value today. He was the first wide receiver selected in the NFL draft but is the sixth wide receiver according to MFL ADP. He is two spots ahead of Hakeem Butler, who was selected on day three of the NFL draft.
Check out Peter Howard’s awesome breakdown on how draft capital affects hit rate. Although I have my concerns, I would much rather take a chance on Brown’s profile than Butler’s.
Alexander Mattison, RB MIN (MFL ADP 29.45)
Mattison is another player who I liked throughout the NFL pre-draft process. The main concern I had with him was his 4.67 40-yard dash he ran at the NFL combine. He improved it at his pro day but I usually take those numbers with a grain of salt. I was not expecting to hear his name called until early day three of the NFL draft so when the Vikings selected him near the end of round three I was pleasantly surprised.
Like Harris, Mattison figures to start off in a reserve role, but behind a player who has struggled with injuries himself. Let’s be clear, if Dalvin Cook stays healthy I do not expect Mattison to overtake him. Not even close. However, if Cook were to miss any time I could easily see Mattison filling in and being a productive player, much like Latavius Murray was last year.
I’ve been monitoring the backup running back position in Minnesota all off-season. The fact one of my favorite running back prospects landed there makes him one of my favorite targets in rookie drafts this year.
Daniel Jones, QB NYG (MFL ADP 18.21)
We are not really going to do this for the second year in a row, are we? Last year, many (including myself) were ready to label Josh Allen as a bust before he even threw one NFL pass. He then turned out to be a rookie draft steal and one of the top quarterback performers over the last few weeks of the season.
Did we not learn from this mistake? We are doing the same exact thing with Jones this year. Quarterbacks selected in the first round, especially the first 15 picks, get many chances to succeed in the NFL. With an ADP of 18.21, if Jones just becomes an NFL starter he will be considered good value there.
- Devy Roundup: Week 14 - November 26, 2019
- Devy Roundup: Week 13 - November 20, 2019
- Devy Roundup: Week 12 - November 12, 2019
