Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Diontae Johnson, WR PIT

Stephen Gill Posted On May 24, 2019

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Name: Diontae Johnson

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Pittsburgh Steelers

College Team: Toledo

Draft Status: Round three, 66th overall

Video highlights

COMBINE REVIEW

Height: 5’10 ½”
Weight: 183 pounds
Wingspan: 74 ½”
Arms: 30 ¾”
Hands: 9”
40-Yard Dash: 4.53 seconds
Vertical: 33 ½”
Broad jump: 123”
3-Cone: 7.09 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.45 seconds

Strengths

Explosive first step and cutting ability on sharp turns
Changes direction with minimal loss of speed
Releases from line of scrimmage more cleanly than most guys his size
Route running could use some polish, but clearly understands what makes good routes technically, and has the athletic traits to execute them
Deadly in space, with four career return touchdowns at Toledo; his shiftiness and sturdy base should lead to additional production both in the return game and after the catch
Strong red zone receiver despite height
Short, but has the body control and agility to provide a reliably big catch radius to passers
Two years of solid production despite playing next to two other NFL receivers with MAC quarterback play

Weaknesses

Height places constraints on what roles he can play
As mentioned, still needs to become a more consistent route runner
Awesome acceleration, but long speed is more “good” than “great”

Opportunities

With Antonio Brown’s departure, JuJu Smith-Schuster steps into the clear number-one-receiver role for the Steelers. The last two years show that Pittsburgh’s offense can support multiple high-scoring receivers if the talent is there. And, behind Smith-Schuster are a load of unproven receivers: James Washington caught just 16 passes after being taken late in the second round of the 2018 draft; Donte Moncrief is on to his third team in three years after another season of middling production; Eli Rogers caught nearly 600 yards in his rookie season, but has failed to reach half of that mark in the two seasons since; Ryan Switzer has been negligible in two seasons spent on three teams.

Enter Diontae Johnson. Barring an unexpected breakout from one of the above receivers, Johnson should get a fair shot to establish himself as that second receiver. Furthermore, as a dynamic athlete and promising route runner — with functional ball skills despite his sub-six-foot size — Johnson can play many roles, similar to Smith-Schuster. Meanwhile, Washington has less positional flexibility, and the Steelers have far less invested in the other three aforementioned names. If you believe in Johnson’s talent, as I do, you should feel good about his chances to be Steelers’ next great number two.

Threats

There’s also a downside for Johnson in the Steelers’ receiver room. If Johnson takes some time to develop and doesn’t fully establish himself as a clear second option, there are a number of competent receivers ready to fill in. This means that Johnson’s production could be strongly diluted quite quickly, leading to a lower floor than one might expect in a presumably healthy receiver taken early in the third round of the draft.

Additionally, as is the case with many other receivers, one has to wonder how much gas Ben Roethlisberger has left in the tank. The 37-year-old passed for a career high 5,129 yards last season, but has over 7,000 career attempts to his name; he could regress or simply retire pretty suddenly. It would obviously be difficult to replace Roethlisberger in either event, which would make a receiving role behind Smith-Schuster much less viable to a fantasy team. With two young quarterbacks gaining tenure and experience backing Roethlisberger up, it appears that the Steelers have Roethlisberger’s age in mind. Still, replacing Roethlisberger isn’t the same as replicating him.

Short-term expectations

As I’ve mentioned, the opportunity is there for Diontae Johnson to break out right now. However, I don’t think he’s quite polished enough to make the most of that opportunity yet. If he develops more than expected over the summer and in the beginning of the season, he could meet that ceiling this season; if he develops less than expected, he could hit the floor I’ve spelled out in the above. As a relatively early Johnson believer, I’m more confident in the former happening than the latter, but if forced to choose, I’d expect a season somewhere in the middle for him: A 600- or 700-yard season, with occasional explosions and occasional anonymous efforts, seems most likely for a developing weapon in a high-powered offense.

Long-term expectations

The long-term scenarios follow pretty logically from what plays out short-term. If he steps up, that number-two spot is his for the foreseeable future. If he doesn’t, then he probably turns into one of many faces in a crowded Steelers supporting cast. (Given his play style and how often he won downfield at Toledo, he could still be a real value to best-ball owners in this case.) Clearly, either sequence of events is much more viable for fantasy owners with Roethlisberger at the helm than it would be with an unknown passer. It’s a tough proposition at the surface, but many other receivers face similar situations, so I wouldn’t get too cold on Johnson just for fear of Roethlisberger’s retirement.

NFL player comparison

I struggle to find comparisons for most receivers, which is also true for Johnson. “Undersized, explosive receiver who doesn’t have the best long speed and didn’t light up the combine” is a relatively rare profile to attribute to a pass-catcher, but two guys come to mind. For me, that profile and basic skill level most closely matches Christian Kirk, who entered the NFL last season as a productive receiver and returner from Texas A&M after putting up a middling combine performance despite his knack for making big plays as an Aggie.

However, Kirk’s offensive system didn’t ask as much for him as a route runner, and he didn’t display quite as good of ball skills as Johnson did at Toledo, which leads me to a more ambitious comparison. Antonio Brown is another dynamic threat at every level of the field, who didn’t put up crazy combine numbers. Beyond that, Brown is obviously among today’s best route runners, is great at the catch point, and even has his own proficiency in the return game. Thus, I’d feel most comfortable comparing Diontae Johnson to someone between Christian Kirk and a “mortal” Antonio Brown.

Projected rookie draft range

DLF’s rookie ADP of 26 has Johnson as a late-second/early-third rounder. That slot may be a bit low, conventionally, for an early-third rounder taken with a clear opportunity to produce. It’s understandable, though, given how anonymous Johnson was in the pre-draft process, and in light of the sheer depth of this year’s rookie class. In fact, despite being one of Johnson’s bigger proponents before the draft, I’ve got Johnson ranked in the same general range at 22.

With any player at that range, you’re either getting high risk and high reward, or low risk and low reward; Johnson falls into the former camp. His ceiling is way too high for me to take him after the backup running backs in the 28-36 range, but picking him among the likes of Terry McLaurin, Kelvin Harmon, and Jalen Hurd comes down to personal preference. If you see him fall, or simply if you like watching little guys light it up, I’d tell you to pull the trigger on him.

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Stephen Gill

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

An aspiring sports executive, Steve hails from Kansas City and currently studies in Montreal. In addition to fantasy and the NFL, he enjoys college football and the NBA. Other interests of his range from video games to hip-hop to online argumentation.