Rookie ADP: Who are you Lower on?

Tom Burroughs

The 2019 NFL draft is in the rearview mirror and we are in the midst of rookie draft season. The 2019 class offers some highly polarizing players and rankings vary across the board.

A few members of the Dynasty League Football staff looked at the early ADP for rookie drafts and made their cases for players they have higher and lower. Here is a look at the top 24:

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You can find the full early rookie ADP here.

Which rookies are you lower on than ADP?

NP Merrill: Kelvin Harmon, WR WAS

In today’s NFL, speed kills. Harmon does not have it, running the forty in 4.60 and the three-cone in 7.15. These numbers at least partially explain his fall from pre-draft popularity.

As recently as February 2019, Harmon’s ADP among rookies boded well for NFL success, coming in at number five. In May, his ADP is 21, having nose-dived since he fell to the sixth round in the 2019 NFL Draft. Washington selected him 206th overall, three rounds and five picks later than new teammate Terry McLaurin.

Competing for targets against McLaurin, Paul Richardson, Trey Quinn, Josh Doctson, tight end Jordan Reed and most likely Derrius Guice out of the backfield, Harmon’s pedestrian Combine results, inability to separate, and meager draft capital indicate an uphill battle to become fellow rookie Dwayne Haskins’ downfield friend.

On film, Harmon shows what he is capable of: average play against middling defenders, failing to make quick cuts necessary to achieve separation. Contrary to some players who show a hard-nosed knack for the sport in defiance of apparently weak measurables, Harmon’s play seems to confirm his poor analytics. NFL teams passed on him until very late in their draft, and so should dynasty team owners. He is not the rookie receiver to own in Washington, or really anywhere else, and is at best a late-round flyer, but more likely a perpetual roster clogger.

Stephen Gill: TJ Hockenson, TE DET

With top-ten draft capital and nearly universal praise of him as a prospect, nobody can deny Hockenson’s talent. However, that talent doesn’t amount to a mid-first round rookie pick for me. First, Hockenson being a tremendous tight end prospect doesn’t mean that he’s an elite receiving prospect: To myself and many others, he’s a better blocker than receiver. While he’s certainly a strong receiver and projects to be one of the NFL’s better receiving tight ends, he isn’t, and doesn’t project to be, an elite one. From that perspective, it’s hard to see a pretty-good-not-great tight end becoming a premier dynasty value like Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz.

Furthermore, there doesn’t seem to be much production potential for him in Detroit. Last season, after Golden Tate and Marvin Jones missed a combined 16 games, Detroit tight ends combined for under 500 yards. I’d expect Jones’s presumed health to roughly cancel out Tate’s departure this year, meaning that Hockenson will probably have to overtake some established receiving options to even reach 600 yards. (Make that 700 yards, if we expect Matt Stafford’s passing production to bounce back to his historical norms.) Thus, Hockenson’s short-term receiving prospects look good, but not great.

Longer term, Golladay and Kerryon Johnson are the only players who look to be settled in on the Lions roster, which indicates opportunity for Hockenson. But, even then, Detroit can simply add more pass-catchers, Stafford’s performance may start to decline, and as mentioned, Hockenson’s talent is more in line with an 850-yard-per-season receiver than a 1,000-yard one.

At a position where production is relatively easy to replace beyond premium scorers, Hockenson’s ceiling just isn’t high enough at any point to warrant a first-round rookie pick (let alone a middle-first), despite being an elite tight end prospect.

Ryan Parish: Miles Boykin, WR BAL

A Combine warrior who is still developing, Boykin could not have landed in many worse situations in my opinion. Count me firmly in the camp that doesn’t believe in Lamar Jackson as a passer, but that’s not my only gripe with the Ravens as a landing spot.

Baltimore has not been able to develop a receiver in quite some time, having had more success with veteran acquisitions such as Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin among others. They also drafted Marquise Brown in the first round which suggests they hope he will be the primary focus of their passing attack moving forward. That’s three quick situational strikes against Boykins already, and we haven’t even talked about his game yet.

Boykin was a surprise show out at the Combine, primarily because he had a rather anonymous college career. He didn’t play many meaningful snaps until his senior year, despite flashing as a deep threat during his junior season. Notre Dame did not possess a dangerous passing attack, so while he was able to lead his team in receptions, yards and receiving touchdowns, it went mostly unnoticed nationally.

Boykin still needs to work on his route tree and had several concentration drops. Even on his supposed strength, vertical routes, he draws criticism for his inability to create separation and struggles with press coverage. Another common critique is he does not play as fast as he tested. There are just too many question marks and better options available on the board for me to even consider him in the second round. I’m happy to let others make that pick, and have frequently seen him fall to the fourth round in leagues I’m in.

Frank Gruber: Parris Campbell, WR IND

While Andy Isabella’s profile is complete, Parris Campbell’s has holes related to production. Campbell may be the hottest post-NFL Draft #DraftTwitter first-round rookie pick. But his ADP of 1.08 is higher than fair value and should be avoided.

I contend that his ADP has risen mainly due to his Combine performance. If dynasty owners double counted Campbell’s athleticism at the Combine, the Twitter echo chamber is effectively triple counting it, as his overall ADP has nearly halved since before the NFL Combine.

Standing at an even 6-0, 205 lbs, Campbell also posted an elite 40-yard time of 4.31s, and this speed is apparent on film.

At Ohio State, he was not asked to do much. Many of his receptions were behind or near the line of scrimmage with surprisingly little downfield usage. In 2018, only two of Campbell’s receptions were on passes of 20 air yards or more.

Campbell’s draft capital (pick 2.27) and situation are admittedly favorable. TY Hilton has already transitioned away from the slot. The Colts should put the rookie in simple situations similar to those in which he succeeded in college while tethered to an elite quarterback. The team’s leadership seems competent, and I trust head coach Frank Reich to use Campbell appropriately.

Despite these positives, the early ADP is too rich for a player with questions related to production (31st percentile College Dominator; 34th percentile Breakout Age). At his current ADP, Campbell will not be on many of my dynasty teams.

Tom Burroughs: Kyler Murray, QB ARI

It is time to stop the madness. Murray, a quarterback, is being taken in the first round in one-quarterback formats. He is is the eighth quarterback off the board in recent dynasty startup mock drafts. While he is the clear 1.01 in superflex, there is no reason to be targeting a quarterback this early in rookie drafts.

The reasoning comes down to positional value. There are arguably 20 quarterbacks who are startable in typical formats, more if you have a few options to stream based on matchup. Using the DLF trade analyzer, Jameis Winston can be obtained with the 2.09 pick (and he is currently ranked a spot higher than Murray in DLF rankings).

In order for Murray’s first-round selection to be justified, he needs to become elite. He is an above-average passer and a freak athlete who may add significant yardage on the ground, but there are still numerous question marks.

Besides his size, he is joining a team that had the 25th-ranked offensive line in 2018 (26th in pass protection) per Football Outsiders and did little to improve the position group. He has a first-time NFL coach and is surrounded with rookie talent at the receiver position. There is great promise with him as a fantasy asset, but anything less than a top-five player will be considered a disappointment at his current price. He should be in the middle of the second round after the tier of receivers come off the board.

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