DLF is home to a plethora of tools and resources for dynasty owners to utilize and leverage. Perhaps most recognized is Average Draft Position (ADP). Every month DLF’s Ryan McDowell puts together ten rookie mock drafts to gauge community consensus on real rookie drafts.
ADP is certainly useful, but we all know that every rookie draft is different. Just because a rookie has an ADP of 4.3 does not mean he will be available even at the 1.03 pick in every rookie draft. Utilizing the results from all ten rookie mock drafts, we can chart the likelihood of a prospect being available at each and every rookie pick.
I’ve been digesting rookie ADP this way for several months, and it seems the community enjoys this methodology. While I have been posting these visualizations for the first round only, as a DLF subscriber you have access to the results from all rounds of these mock drafts. In this article series, we’ll go through each round and highlight key takeaways for each. In case you missed the first iteration of this article, you can check it out here! I will keep this article series going throughout the summer for those in later rookie drafts.
Before we begin, it’s important to quickly note that although ten mock drafts are a lot to draw conclusions from, it’s certainly not all-encompassing. You’ll find that many players have a “100%” or “0%” of being available at certain picks. This, of course, is not entirely true, but this exercise is incredibly valuable nonetheless. The results of these mock drafts are just a small microcosm of the community as a whole. We can expect the actual probabilities to be similar, though not exact, to the ones presented here. Without further delay, let’s begin!
- N’Keal Harry was the clear 1.01 in these mock drafts, going at the spot in 90% of them. I expect that in a larger sample of drafts this percentage would be a bit lower.
- Josh Jacobs was the consensus 1.02. If Jacobs does not go at 1.01, expect him to be off the board at the 1.02 spot.
- Miles Sanders and David Montgomery are very unlikely to be available past the 1.06 selection.
- Parris Campbell was not selected later than the 1.10 spot in any mock draft.
- Two tight ends, TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant, are firmly ensconced in round one in the majority of drafts.
- Kyler Murray snuck into the first round of ADP, being selected above the 1.11 spot in 20% of mock drafts.
- Hakeem Butler nearly was a first-round pick according to ADP. He was selected in the first round in 60% of rookie mock drafts.
- Marquise Brown and Andy Isabella appear to make up their own tier after the end of round one. Both players are unlikely to be available after the 2.04 selection.
- Mecole Hardman, one of the biggest risers post-draft, was selected after the 2.05 pick only once.
- Dwayne Haskins had a wide range of selections in the DLF May Rookie Mock Drafts, going as high as 2.02 yet selected in the third round 50% of the time.
- Kelvin Harmon is a consensus late second round player, selected between 2.08 and 2.12 in 70% of drafts.
- Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson were selected before the 3.01 in 40% of mock drafts.
- The dispersion of probabilities is much higher in round three, indicating that drafters are “getting their guy” here more than previous rounds.
- Riley Ridley appears less likely than his ADP peers to be “reached” for earlier in drafts.
- Despite being selected at the NFL QB2, Daniel Jones finds himself as the QB4 in rookie drafts, selected in the fourth round in 70% of mock drafts.
- Jones is the only player with a fourth-round ADP to not be available at the 4.08 or later in any mock draft.
- Every player in round four was selected prior to 4.01 at least once.
- Dexter Williams and Kahale Warring appear to be the two round four players most likely to be “reached” for earlier in drafts.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this different look at Rookie ADP. With ten mock drafts at our disposal, we’re able to do a lot more with ADP than simply look at the number. Each and every rookie draft is different. Understanding and viewing rookie mock drafts in this manner allows one to more appropriately maneuver to specific picks and know who might be available.
If you have any questions at all on anything presented above, feel free to comment below or reach out on Twitter @FFzinger! As I previously mentioned, I’ll keep this series going throughout the summer. Even from early May, I expect a lot of changes each month!
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This is fantastic. Thank you for sharing!!
This is wonderful work and why I am so happy being a DLF member!