DLF is home to a plethora of tools and resources for dynasty owners to utilize and leverage. Perhaps most recognized is Average Draft Position (ADP). Every month DLF’s Ryan McDowell puts together ten rookie mock drafts to gauge community consensus on real rookie drafts.
ADP is certainly useful, but we all know that every rookie draft is different. Just because a rookie has an ADP of 4.3 does not mean he will be available even at the 1.03 pick in every rookie draft. Utilizing the results from all ten rookie mock drafts, we can chart the likelihood of a prospect being available at each and every rookie pick.
I’ve been digesting rookie ADP this way for several months, and it seems the community enjoys this methodology. While I have been posting these visualizations for the first round only, as a DLF subscriber you have access to the results from all rounds of these mock drafts. In this article series, we’ll go through each round and highlight key takeaways for each. In case you missed the first iteration of this article, you can check it out here! I will keep this article series going throughout the summer for those in later rookie drafts.
Before we begin, it’s important to quickly note that although ten mock drafts are a lot to draw conclusions from, it’s certainly not all-encompassing. You’ll find that many players have a “100%” or “0%” of being available at certain picks. This, of course, is not entirely true, but this exercise is incredibly valuable nonetheless. The results of these mock drafts are just a small microcosm of the community as a whole. We can expect the actual probabilities to be similar, though not exact, to the ones presented here. Without further delay, let’s begin!