What are the Best Running Back By Committee Backfields to Invest in?

How do you determine which running backs or committees to invest in? You may look at a running back’s fantasy production or the offensive coordinator. The offensive line coach is often overlooked along with the running game schemes.

This positional coach is responsible for the development half of the offensive players on the field during any given play. The O-Line coach has a very good understanding of the team’s running game. He or she spends a lot of time collaborating on what running plays will work against the upcoming opponent. The plays are selected based on the offensive line’s strengths and weaknesses. It would be prudent to incorporate offensive line coach analysis into your running back research.

This article will share four running back by committees that should be on your acquisition radar.

New England Patriots

Dante Scarnecchia has had many coaching roles in New England during his 30-plus seasons with the Patriots organization. He had been the team’s offensive line coach from 1999 to 2013. Scarnecchia retired briefly after the 2013 NFL season, assisting the Patriots behind the scenes in various roles, but returned as the offensive line coach in 2016.

The play of Scarnecchia’s offensive lines has had a positive effect on the Patriots running game scheme for over a decade. This is further reinforced when you analyze Football Outsider’s Adjusted Line Yards and Open Field Yards.

The Adjusted Line Yards formula is based on regression analysis. It takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the success rate of the running play. Open Field Yards divides the team’s running back carries of 10 or more yards past the line of scrimmage by the total number of carries. A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work.

The offensive line play has been a key factor in the success of multiple Patriots running backs over the years who have found fantasy football success including Kevin Faulk, Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, and most recently Sony Michel.

Scarnecchia just turned 71 and who knows how many more seasons he’ll remain the Patriots offensive line coach until retiring. Who knows how much longer future Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick will remain in New England? There is a good chance that Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will succeed him as head coach. It’s highly unlikely that McDaniels would abandon the team’s running attack given the nearly 20-year track record.

Recommendation

Michel should be targeted in trades. He finished as the RB35 in PPR formats last season and played in 13 games. Michel’s per game averages in the areas of rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns are eerily similar to his peers.

The peak age for an NFL running back is from age 23 to 28 with 74.3 percent of them scoring 230 or more PPR fantasy points since the year 2000. This is the perfect time to trade for Michel before he has a breakout season.

New Orleans Saints

Dan Roushar has held many coaching roles within the Saints organization since 2013. He has coached the running backs (2013 to 2014), tight ends (2015), and has worked with the offensive line since 2016. Roushar also has an extensive resume working with offensive lines at various colleges.

The Saints offensive line play has resulted in one of the NFL’s most robust rushing attacks. Adjusted Line Yards and Open Field Yards also support that thesis.

The Saints have been blessed with talent on the offensive line and at the running back position. The O-Line has consistently received high grades during Roushar’s tenure from Pro Football Focus. The Saints have also had very capable running backs including Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.

Sean Payton has been very successful since arriving in New Orleans in 2006 as the head coach. He accumulated 118 wins, won Super Bowl XLIV, and was named the AP Coach of the Year. He has been heavily involved with the Saints play calling since 2006. Payton’s offenses have averaged 24 rushing attempts, 104 rushing yards, and one touchdown per game over that time frame with positive rushing fantasy points over expectations.

He has mentioned publicly many times his commitment to the Saints organization. Payton signed a five-year extension worth in excess of $45 million back in 2016. He was already one of the NFL’s highest-paid head coaches prior to that deal. There is a high probability that Payton signs another extension with the Saints after the 2020 season. This bodes well for Roushar’s future with the team.

Recommendation

Kamara is the obvious target. The soon to be 24-year old is highly coveted in dynasty formats, according to our Trade Calculator.

Latavius Murray could be acquired for less, but 2019 will be his age-29 season. Running backs historically see a significant drop in PPR point production at this age. Could Murray be an outlier? I don’t think so. Murray’s averaged 205.4 touches per season in his career while his fantasy production continues to trend down. Murray will operate as a change of pace option this season and signed a four-year contract with the Saints.

Mark Ingram has shown us that two running backs could thrive in New Orlean’s offense. Murray’s contract is structured in a way that the Saints could unbundle it after 2019 with a minimal effect on their salary cap. If you prefer to target discounted players who could find themselves in very valuable roles then my recommendation would be to draft or target Devine Ozigbo.

The former Nebraska Cornhusker went undrafted, but signed with the Saints as a free agent. Ozigbo played in 39 career games with 16 starts. He averaged seven yards per rushing attempt in route to 1,000 yards as a senior for Nebraska. The Saints typically carry several running backs on the 53 man roster. Ozigbo could beat out Murray this summer and see a reasonable number of opportunities per game as part of the Saints running back by committee.

Denver Broncos

Mike Munchak was one of the five candidates who interviewed for the Broncos head coaching position, but ultimately lost the role to Vic Fangio. The Pro Football Hall of Famer was asked to join his staff as the offensive line coach. Munchak has over 30 years of NFL coaching experience in various roles with the Houston Oiler, Tennessee Oilers, and Tennessee Titans organization. He spent a high percentage of this time (1997 to 2010) as the team’s offensive line coach. Munchak also spent the last five seasons coaching the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line. He has a track record of success with both teams.

Munchak’s units have not been as successful with Adjusted Line Yards, but his blocking schemes do allow a running back’s talent to shine. Munchak’s had some great ones over the years including Eddie George, Chris Johnson, and Le’Veon Bell. He finds himself with two up and coming running backs in Denver with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman.

The Broncos acquisition of Munchak was not widely publicized, but it was one of the most important of the off-season. He is the top offensive line coach in the NFL. Munchak’s insight should streamline the development of the Broncos offensive line this season.

Recommendation

Second-year running backs Lindsay and Freeman are both excellent trade targets. Lindsay finished his rookie season with 1,278 total yards from scrimmage finishing as the fantasy RB13 in PPR formats. The undrafted free agent outplayed 2018 third round pick, Royce Freeman.

Both running backs finished last season with positive rushing fantasy points over expectations. Freeman had nearly as many evaded tackles and yards created. This is notable because he didn’t have as large a workload as Lindsay whose season ending with a wrist injury. Freeman was drafted number 71 overall for a reason. He is undervalued as the Broncos backfield is likely to operate as a committee in 2019. What assets are you willing to give up in order to have exposure? Here is how our very own Trade Analyzer values Lindsay and Freeman.

Washington Redskins

Bill Callahan’s coaching career in the NCAA and NFL spans more than 30 years. His resume includes time as an offensive line coach, offensive coordinator, and even a brief stint as the head coach of the Oakland Raiders. The time frame I want to highlight is from 2008 to the present.

Callahan is one of the top offensive line coaches in the NFL today and this has been reflected in the quality of play of his units. This is reinforced by the Adjusted Line Yards and Open Field Yards of Callahan’s offensive lines over the years.

Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, DeMarco Murray, Alfred Morris, and Chris Thompson have all had fantasy success in Callahan’s blocking schemes. The Redskins are coming off back to back seasons 7-9 seasons. The team has also finished third in the NFC East for three straight seasons. The Redskins offensive line has experienced a startling number of injuries in the past two seasons. Head coach Jay Gruden is on the hot seat and the 2019 season will determine whether it cools down. This situation could influence whether Callahan stays in Washington if a new coaching regime is brought in.

The Redskins backfield is loaded with talent. The team selected former Stanford running back Bryce Love number 112 overall in the 2019 NFL Draft. He will compete for carries with 2018 second-round draft pick Derrius Guice, receiving back Thompson, future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson, and Samaje Perine.

Recommendation

The long-term solution is to acquire Guice or Love. Both players are on rookie contracts and have something to prove. The short term solution for dynasty teams in win-now mode is to acquire Thompson.

Peterson played in every game last season rushing for more than 1,000 yards. It’s unlikely the soon to be 34-year old running back will replicate that performance. Peterson was re-signed by Washington to a two-year contract back in March. The contract allows the Redskins to opt out in 2020. Peterson is expected to open the 2019 season as the starter, but Guice is waiting in the wings. The Redskins will operate as a running back by committee. Peterson and Guice will cannibalize each other’s fantasy value.

Thompson’s averaged 8.5 touches and 54.2 total yards per game in 36 games played since 2016. His upside has been capped by numerous injuries, but is in position to see ten or more opportunities per game as the Redskins receiving back. Thompson is set to become a free agent in 2020 and the addition of Love implies that he won’t be resigned.

All of Gruden’s comments in the media suggest Guice is ahead of schedule with his recovery from a preseason ACL injury suffered in 2018. Love also tore his ACL last December and could open the season on the PUP list. The stage is being set for these two young running backs to form the Redskins committee in 2020 and beyond. Love is the top candidate to handle the change of pace carries and the passing downs with Guice handling the early downs and goal line work. The time to acquire these running backs is now.

Bringing It All Together

It’s time for you to put what you’ve learned into action. You’ve learned about adjusted line yards, open field yards, the importance of offensive line coaches, and that any NFL player regardless of their athleticism can thrive in the right scheme. Now that you know what to analyze it should become easier to identify which running back by committee is worth investing in as you look to build a dynasty juggernaut.

Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below, discuss in our forums, or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody.

Until next time!