The DLF Slack channels have been filled with healthy debates and discussions on this year’s rookie class. Most of us had our pre-draft rookie rankings but we knew the NFL draft would likely shuffle them up significantly, maybe more than in recent years.
As many rookie drafts kick off across the community, we wanted to see where we might expect the players in this rookie class to be selected. As a result, we conducted a two-round rookie mock draft. Some details are below.
- This was a superflex draft
- Once someone made a selection, they were instructed to wait at least five picks to make an additional pick to let others chime in
- I did not participate, so the commentary I provide below is based on how I perceived the draft results
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EARLY ROUND ONE
1.01 – Kyler Murray, QB ARI (QB1)
1.02 – N’Keal Harry, WR NEP (WR1)
1.03 – Josh Jacobs, RB OAK (RB1)
1.04 – Miles Sanders, RB PHI (RB2)
1.05 – Dwayne Haskins, QB WAS (QB2)
Across all of the real and mock rookie drafts I have partaken in the past few days, I am finding the five players listed above typically find themselves being selected in the early part of the draft. Kyler Murray keeps inching closer to the consensus first overall pick in superflex drafts with Harry and Jacobs often forming a second mini-tier right behind him.
Miles Sanders continues his ascension from the middle of the second round back in February all the way up to the early first today. He performed well at the combine and the Philadelphia Eagles invested significant draft capital in him as well.
Last but not least, Dwayne Haskins is no slouch down there at fifth. He has the chance to develop into a solid starter, something very valuable in superflex leagues. Derrius Guice returns from injury and the Redskins also drafted a couple of receivers (Haskins’s college teammate Terry McLaurin and Kelvin Harmon). The Redskins’ offense figures to look much different than it did a year ago.
MID ROUND ONE
1.06 – AJ Brown, WR TEN (WR2)
1.07 – TJ Hockenson, TE DET (TE1)
1.08 – David Montgomery, RB CHI (RB3)
1.09 – DK Metcalf, WR SEA (WR3)
This part of the draft starts to get a little more interesting. I have seen it go a number of different directions but each of the players listed below are still commonly selected in the first round.
Furthermore, wide receivers tend to dominate this area of the draft. Someone usually takes David Montgomery and the two elite tight end prospects are good bets here, but the other picks are usually wide receivers from here until the early or middle of the second round.
LATE ROUND ONE
1.10 – Marquise Brown, WR BAL (WR4)
1.11 – Noah Fant, TE DEN (TE2)
1.12 – Parris Campbell, WR IND (WR5)
Noah Fant was a great value pick here in the late first round as first-round NFL tight ends are good bets based on historical success.
Even though both have their risks, Marquise Brown and Parris Campbell have good draft capital attached to their profiles and are often selected in this range of rookie drafts.
EARLY ROUND TWO
2.01 – Deebo Samuel, WR SFO (WR6)
2.02 – JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR PHI (WR7)
2.03 – Hakeem Butler, WR ARI (WR8)
2.04 – Miles Boykin, WR BAL (WR9)
2.05 – Terry McLaurin, WR WAS (WR10)
The early part of the second round was dominated by wide receivers. Four of them were drafted on day two with Hakeem Butler just missing by one pick. I am more confident about Samuel and Arcega-Whiteside than the other three, but this generally feels like the part of rookie drafts I do not want to be selecting in. I would rather trade up, which seems like it is pretty cheap to do right now, or back into the end of the second. There is also the savvy move of flipping one of these picks into a 2020 first-rounder.
MID ROUND TWO
2.06 – Andy Isabella, WR ARI (WR11)
2.07 – Darrell Henderson, RB LAR (RB4)
2.08 – Mecole Hardman, WR KCC (WR12)
2.09 – Drew Lock, QB DEN (QB3)
Andy Isabella seems like great value this late in the draft and Darrell Henderson could be a league-winner if Todd Gurley were to miss extended time.
Mecole Hardman is a classic boom-or-bust prospect. Nobody predicted he would be drafted as early as he was and catching passes from Patrick Mahomes is enticing, but the lack of production is concerning. A mid-second round pick is a much better investment than a late-first though.
Drew Lock has nice offensive weapons around him but I believe the Broncos would have spent their first-round pick on him if he was “their guy.”
LATE ROUND TWO
2.10 – Daniel Jones, QB NYG (QB4)
2.11 – Alexander Mattison, RB MIN (RB5)
2.12 – Justice Hill, RB BAL (RB6)
Like many did with Josh Allen last year, a lot of people are already writing off Daniel Jones before he even plays a snap for New York. The Giants invested a premium pick on him so he is going to get multiple chances to succeed. Selecting him this late in a superflex draft is a great value.
A couple running backs round out the second round. While wide receivers dominated the first two rounds, this is where I am normally seeing running backs and tight ends start to take over.
I try to participate or observe as many rookie mock drafts as I can to gain a feel for the market and where I should expect certain players to fall. I came away with the following observations:
- No draft order is ever set in stone, but the players selected in the early part of this mock seem to be commonly selected near the top. If you want one of them, be prepared to use an early first-round pick on him or trade up to acquire him.
- Wide receivers often dominate the next 12 picks (from the middle of the first to the middle of the second rounds). The order of these players is currently all over the place though.
- The early part of the second round seems like a dangerous spot to be. I would be looking to sell for 2020 picks or trade down/up.
Hopefully this exercise gives you some insight into what the DLF staff thinks of this rookie class at this point in the off-season. Thanks for reading!
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