Running Back Danger Rankings: 16-1

Joseph Nammour

The NFL off-season is an incredibly intriguing part of the calendar year. After the conclusion of the Super Bowl, there are countless opportunities for dynasty players to improve their teams as player value fluctuates with each blurb of news.

There are a handful of events each off-season that have a huge impact on dynasty players. Free agency is one of them, while the NFL Combine is what truly sparks rookie fever year after year. Each subsequent prospect visit and mock draft alters how players view each team’s respective assets as NFL general managers work diligently to improve their real teams.

However, the NFL Draft is the single event each calendar year that has the ability to dramatically alter how dynasty players view each team, as depth charts shift and starters gain or lose value.

Due to the strength of the last few rookie running back classes, there are many feature backs entrenched as their team’s respective starter. Despite that, there are a handful of teams that could use significant improvement atop their depth charts. Some of these backs suffered a hit to their value during the free agency period when their team pursued another back. Others were able to breathe a sigh of relief, but another land mine is on the horizon with the upcoming NFL Draft. If you own these players, you must be prepared for this potential change in value.

Using Rotoworld’s depth chart, we’ll rank each team’s starter based on how dangerous they are to own. In the instances where the starter has drastically less dynasty value than one of his teammates, I will list both. The players on this list have a variety of risks, including injury or off-field issues, but this article will rank them solely with the NFL Draft in mind.

A team unlikely to draft a running back means their current starter would rank low on this “danger scale,” while a team almost certain to draft a running back means their current back is very dangerous to own right now.

We’ll go in reverse order, meaning these are some of the “safer” backs to own in dynasty leagues. Remember, this is not a ranking of the value of these backs, but only their danger level.

16. Mark Ingram, BAL

Ingram is a talented back who bounced back and reclaimed his dynasty value after a disappointing first few seasons of his career. While he hasn’t been a starter since New Orleans drafted Alvin Kamara in 2017, Ingram has managed to remain relevant in the Saints’ high-powered offense. Many believed he would have trouble finding a landing spot where he would remain as valuable as he was in New Orleans, yet that’s exactly what happened.

Lamar Jackson’s game-breaking ability as a rusher helps his running backs find wide-open lanes. Middling talents like Gus Edwards were scoring fantasy points at a decent clip last season because of Jackson’s presence. Ingram is better than the running backs Baltimore had last season, so it’s unlikely they’ll look to add much of a threat to him, Edwards, and Kenneth Dixon. However, Alex Collins, Javorius Allen, and Ty Montgomery are all elsewhere (or unemployed) at the moment, so a depth addition may be in the cards.

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15. James Conner, PIT

Conner transformed his body prior to last year’s preseason and was the subject of many glowing reports before the season began, but it wasn’t until the drama with Le’Veon Bell unfolded that people started taking Conner seriously. After a breakout sophomore season, most expect Conner and Jaylen Samuels to be the one-two punch in Pittsburgh. They have little depth behind those two players, so they may draft a running back in the later rounds.

14. Marlon Mack, IND

If Chris Ballard wasn’t the general manager of the Colts, Marlon Mack would likely be in much more danger than he is. Ballard is one of the shrewdest GMs in the league and understands that running backs aren’t a premium position, but between Mack, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins, the Colts have a group that is capable of playing on every down and handling different responsibilities.

13. Aaron Jones, GB

I think the dynasty community is higher on Aaron Jones than the NFL (and the Packers). Green Bay’s insistence on utilizing a frustrating committee of Jones and Jamaal Williams is something that shows little likelihood of slowing down. While Williams is much maligned, he is a capable player that can spell Jones when he needs a breather (and vice versa). Therefore, while I don’t think the Packers spend an early pick on a running back, I do think this committee will continue to be a maddening one to navigate going forward. They may draft some depth in the later rounds.

12. Jordan Howard, PHI

Philadelphia is one of the teams most commonly linked to Josh Jacobs, and it makes sense. The Eagles are a talented squad with fewer holes than most other teams and no clear feature back on the roster. However, following the trade for Jordan Howard, running back isn’t quite the need it may have been before. The Eagles have plenty of warm bodies on their depth chart, with Howard, Josh Adams, Corey Clement, and Wendell Smallwood already on the team. Because Philadelphia tends to favor a committee approach regardless, Howard and the rest of the bunch are likely safer than the public assumes.

11. Leonard Fournette, JAC

Jaguars fans are fed up with Fournette, and for good reason. The former fourth overall selection has shown repeated immaturity on and off the field and has struggled to suit up for lengthy periods of time each year. Fournette’s name has appeared in trade rumors this offseason, and Jacksonville has a bunch of career journeymen (Alfred Blue, Thomas Rawls, Benny Cunningham) behind him on the depth chart – along with David Williams. Some of these players may make the roster, but none of them are even average talents at the position. It would not be a surprise to see the Jaguars draft someone in the middle rounds. However, based on the draft capital spent on Fournette just a couple years ago, it would be a highly unpopular decision among that fan base to dip back into the pool at the same position already.

10. Derrick Henry, TEN

The Titans have shown a reluctance to trust Derrick Henry to be their featured back for a number of seasons now, and Henry is now entering the final year of his contract. Dion Lewis is under contract for three more seasons, but has never been a player you can trust to stay healthy. I believe the Titans will finally commit to Henry this year, but I would guess they’ll plan to let him walk after this season. Because of this, I think Tennessee is a sneaky bet to draft a running back in the middle rounds.

9. Dalvin Cook, MIN

Dalvin Cook is a very talented player who has missed significant time in each of his first two seasons. The Vikings have also let Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray walk in back to back off-seasons, leaving them with almost nothing on the depth chart behind Cook. Mike Boone and Roc Thomas are the only other running backs on the roster (Ameer Abdullah is solely a return specialist at this point in his career), so they’re nearly certain to draft a player – the only real question is how early they choose to do it.

8. Devonta Freeman, ATL

Devonta Freeman is a gifted running back. I don’t think anybody would dispute that fact. Unfortunately, his injuries are slowly mounting, and now, after four years, Tevin Coleman has moved on to greener pastures. The Falcons drafted Ito Smith last year in preparation of losing Coleman, but they will need to add another player to the depth chart in case Freeman succumbs to injury once again.

7. Damien Williams, KC

After the release of Kareem Hunt, Damien Williams highlighted exactly why Andy Reid’s top tailback is a player you want to own in fantasy. Williams is an effective committee back that has clearly shown the ability to perform when called upon, but his career track record shows that he is an unspectacular player. He has never been a team’s leading rusher for a season, has never surpassed 256 rushing yards in a season, and has never touched the ball more than 73 times in a season.

This is where Andy Reid comes in. Reid is a tremendous evaluator of running backs, but his scheme consistently churns out top-end RB1s year after year. If he determines that Williams isn’t his guy based on his body of work throughout his career to this point, the middle rounds could be a sweet spot for a running back. However, after the trade for Frank Clark, the Chiefs have depleted their store of picks and may opt to focus on the defensive side of the ball.

6. LeSean McCoy, BUF

McCoy was listed as more dangerous on this list before the TJ Yeldon signing. While few people would consider Yeldon a savior, he’s a back who can play on all three downs and do everything moderately well. Buffalo has a lot of needs but has three running backs with ample experience on their roster already (read: they’re old). McCoy and Frank Gore are both over 30 years old, and it took Yeldon over a month into free agency to sign, indicating that he had a very cool market for his services. Because of the age of the guys on this depth chart, it’s quite possible that the Bills will look to draft a running back to pair with Josh Allen for the foreseeable future.

5. Kenyan Drake, MIA

The Dolphins drafted Kalen Ballage relatively early last year, then hardly utilized him as he watched Frank Gore amass 168 touches. Many analysts also thought Kenyan Drake was primed for a breakout season in 2018, but he was highly inconsistent on a weekly basis as he frustrated dynasty players who drafted him early. Looking for a fresh start, Drake has an opportunity to reclaim the starting role under new head coach Brian Flores, but will have to withstand the draft this weekend. Ballage is also vying for more work in Gore’s absence, but it is curious that neither athletic running back was able to collect more touches last season. Because 168 touches are now available from last season’s offense, it seems probable that Miami will draft a player rather than choosing to trust the two players they hardly trusted a year ago.

4. Lamar Miller, HOU

Lamar Miller is the most boring, consistent RB2 in fantasy. He never really has breakout performances or wins you weeks, but he rarely puts up a complete dud. For a player with five consecutive 1,000-scrimmage yard seasons, he does not get the respect he deserves.

Running back wouldn’t be a need for the Texans if they knew what they had in D’Onta Foreman, but he has appeared in just one game since tearing his Achilles in 2017. Houston has significant needs on their offensive line, but it would be understandable if they chose to add depth to their running back room – especially after losing Alfred Blue to Jacksonville.

3. Peyton Barber/Ronald Jones, TB

Ronald Jones could not have been more disappointing in his rookie season than he was. The good news is that he is impressing Tampa Bay’s new regime so far this offseason and can only improve upon what he did last year. The bad news is that the new regime has no ties to him as a player and can choose to move on and select their own running back that they favor.

Peyton Barber is a decent player, but he’s not the long-term answer at running back. It really depends how the team views Jones. I would expect the Buccaneers to draft a running back in the middle rounds and then hold an open competition in training camp and the preseason.

2. Mike Davis, CHI

Note: Davis is listed as Chicago’s starter on Rotoworld’s depth chart. Tarik Cohen is the player in the backfield who holds the most dynasty value.

For all of Jordan Howard’s pass-catching limitations, he was an effective interior rusher whose absence creates a need on Chicago’s depth chart. Davis is an adequate player who is likely being underrated by the dynasty community as a whole, but it would be a major upset if the Bears opted against adding some competition in the backfield.

Cohen is a valuable change-of-pace and receiving back whose role will likely not change much no matter who is added as competition. The Bears don’t have a first (or second) round pick. It’s unlikely their first selection will be a running back, but they are strong contenders to add one at some point this weekend.

1. Isaiah Crowell, OAK

The Raiders are one of the teams most heavily linked to Josh Jacobs in the first round, and even if they pass on Jacobs with each of their three first-round selections, it seems likely that they will take a running back on the second day of the draft. Each of their two leading rushers from a season ago, Doug Martin and Marshawn Lynch, are free agents. After waiting a while in free agency, Oakland inked Crowell to a contract to add bodies to the depth chart, but most analysts have linked the Raiders to a running back early.

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